Their only hope is a massive mobilisation as well as arms shipments from China
Surely a less fantastical outcome than a victory for Ukraine?
On point #1 - mobilization - Russia clearly has an enormous resource still available. It's pretty much the size of Ukraine's entire male population - babies, teenagers, working age men, and seniors included. Your fantasies of total societal collapse in Russia as a result of a sweeping mobilization are just that - fantasies. The "regime", as you call it, is very much stable.
On point #2, this has certainly not happened to-date, but seems to me it would represent a less unexpected and less spectacular development than the actual unprecedented support Ukraine has received. The West literally went from consigning them to the dustbin of history, to a full-throated proxy war that has realigned the global map. Nobody expected that, not even the West.
China, if anything, is playing catch up. Providing weapons to Russia will soon be its only possible option to save face, if the US keeps talking to them as if they are Britain or Germany.
Again, I hate this thread because I wrote all of this before. China will propose a plan, America will **** on it, China's hands will be untied. What I didn't expect, was that the US would cancel a visit by the Secretary of State over a balloon, announce several new sanction packages against Chinese high tech firms, send deadly weapons to Taiwan, host a visit of the President of Taiwan in Washington, and also several times "warn" China of "unpredictable consequences" for aiding Russia.
Any self respecting person at this point would say - "I call bs on this game". Because:
1) America has overtly designated China as an adversary
2) America and its friends are helping weaken and potentially destabilize a Chinese ally - the only ally it has on the UNSC.
3) They are simultaneously attempting to contain China economically by all means at their disposal, even though China is a country with a much, much poorer population than the West's
4) In the same breath, they threaten China against helping Russia
5) In essence, they want China to help suffocate itself.
Only Western idiots can look at all this, and still feel morally and intellectually superior. Everybody else is looking at this with disgust.