Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 19

@johnny reb
Not a game, a simple clarification which you failed to give.

But I have clarified it six times now and you still don't get it.
I can't be held responsible for that.

No you have not, don't worry about it.

Yes I have, go back and look.
Your problem is that You have no allies here to back you up today.
Think next time before you pick a fight with the Reb one on one.
WHAT ! me worry ? Not a chance.

Now to get back On - Topic.
Can someone tell me what Valuable Minerals Ukraine has that are in abundance ?

Orange paint pigments?

There is an actual global ranking:

bpb.de/themen/europa/ukraine-analysen/546618/analyse-die-rohstoffe-der-ukraine-und-ihre-strategische-bedeutung/

That means especially concerning Manganese ore, iron ore and mercury ore there has only one more to offer.

But that lists shows that there is so much more....what a rich soil that is! Some are already speculating if THAT was the real reason for Russias invasion....

• 
  Global ranking of ores in Ukraine 2021
  
• 
  Ranking of Raw Materials and Specialty Minerals 2017
  

Ukraine is rich. It's a fact.

Without Ukraine, Russia is much poorer.

....yeah....absolutely looks like it!

I can imagine the loss of important ressources must have been difficult for Russia's industry.

Now there speaks alot that this new "deal" might truly achieve peace if Russia gets something satisfactory out of it. And Trump of course as the big negotiator...and at the end peace for Ukraine....could it be?

The new "deal" is a joke.

Ukraine provides nothing, and America promises nothing in return.

What's important, however, is that Zelensky will be seen as a dog that crawled on his knees to Washington to sign this paper.

This will give Trump and his supporters a short term erection. Trump will do a victory lap telling people how he made that sumb*tch Zelensky sign this paper. Then everybody will successfully forget about it.

I'm very proud of my Ukrainian brothers for not signing the first extortionate version of the document. In fact, Trump doesn't know who he is dealing with. Ukrainian corruption is of such force and depth, that I don't think he's even experienced it while working in the Manhattan real estate market.

In Ukraine they put each other in jail for fun - during negotiations. In the words of Igor Kolomoisky, famous Ukrainian oligarch and mentor of Zelensky: "Where you were taught - I was a professor!"

Trump thought he could try some NYC tricks on some boys from Dnipro and Odessa. These are the same guys that built the American Jewish mafia, and all of Russian organized crime.

So like I said some weeks ago... two crooks entered the ring. Looks like they successfully fooled each other. Everyone can go home feeling good.

That Russia is and always was innit for these ressources makes so much more sense than anything else....*smacks head*

Remember how we wondered at the beginning of this war WHY the hell Russia did just that? Trying to defeat and then occupy a highly hostile population, which will only promise more blood and terror for the coming decades, fighting a guerrilla resistance? Or that "Liberation from the Nazis in Kiev" crap ...come on.....

But that....that could be the real reason! And then nobody was closer to a solution than Trump....one has to admit!


Na ja....lets wait and see what happens...we could both be totally wrong here....:)

It is not difficult you only need just a little bit of history. Why and when did Poland's power decline and Russia's rise to power? After they snatched Ukraine from us.

.....that would most probably also mean that the Brussels smart-heads won't block the Billions needed for Ukraine's rebuilding...they will know EU-Europe is getting all back and more with these rare ressources....just another deal!

Ukraine has nothing in comparison to Russia. Trump knows this, Putin knows this. This is why Putin's men are offering Trump's men, more than what Zelensky can offer - during their talks in Saudi Arabia.

In the end, the United States will do actual work in Russia and not in Ukraine.

The importance of this event was performative. To punish and humiliate Zelensky for the first Trump impeachment, and for stumping for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania in October at an ammunition factory.

Why Russia is more interesting than Ukraine?

1) All of Ukraine's mineral wealth is based on studies performed by Soviet geologists. Nobody is certain how much there actually is, and what work it would take to get it out of the ground.

2) Over 35 years of independence, nobody ever bothered to exploit these resources. It means they are either not there, uneconomical to exploit, or there is some other problem.

3) Not trying to be an as*hole, but Ukraine had 3 revolutions in 20 years. Not exactly a great story for investor confidence. The first thing each new government does, is rip up all the agreements signed by the previous government.

4) Maybe they have gallium, or titanium, but Russia has more of everything else. Russia also has a reputation of delivering despite practically any obstacles. The only thing that stops Russia is if somebody literally explodes the pipeline. Whether you like it or not, Russia is much more reliable historically than Ukraine.

Yes. And the answer is the same as it always was: money. Slavs slaughtering Slavs for money. *pukes*

But maybe something good came out of it after all: Poland is getting atomic weapons, Europe is becoming less dependent on the USA militarily, Baltic is basically a NATO lake now and we got those tough bastards Finns on our side (and Swedes too). But why do I have this nagging feeling that it's not the end of the whole affair yet?

You have a theory, I have another....we can only observe how that unfolds!


The gut feeling is rarely wrong...and we know we never know ALL the facts...only what is trickling through to the media...drop for drop....

With all due respect, people pay me money to provide advice about the region. Free opinions are worth about as much as you pay for them.

Let me go slow...

Poland will have nukes to use them ... and die.

Poland will have nukes and do nothing with them ...and waste billions.

... and then you will see a Chinese-American-Russian effort to disarm Poland.

Everybody who hates each other, will forget about it temporarily, to put Poland back into its place.

Poland will be sanctioned to death. Not being a continent-spanning country like Russia, these sanctions will mean the death of Poland's economy.

Each able bodied Pole will leave the country to seek out better pastures, while your North Korean style government threatens Moscow with nukes.

You better at your age.

Poland will have nukes as the final deterrent. Nobody will ever again invade Poland, slaughter our civilians, murder women and children, close us in concentration camps and call subhuman without it going unpunished. Poland getting atomic weapons is the ultimate act of historical justice.

Instead of talking nonsense you better propose some cool names for our atomic missiles here...

https://polishforums.com/po-polsku/polska-bron-atomowa-88811/

@Bobko

What a pessimistic scenario. Nobody will sanction Poland. We wil get the nukes with the aid of Britain and France (possibly also Iran, some talks were already conducted in the past) and the US are our allies now - we spent 4% GDP on defence last year, planning to reach 5%, so even Trump's cronies who hate Europe with passion are praising Poland. Who will sanction us? Zimbabwe?

I am telling you, even America will sanction you.

Pakistan and India had to deal with issues. South Africa had these problems. Israel does - but deals with them creatively. North Korea and Iran do right now.

It doesn't matter where you are from, who you are, or what you do - the other nuclear powers do not want you to have this weapon.

This has been a principle of international relations for almost 80 years now.

America used them first, but never used them again. Nobody else has ever used them. The ones most likely to use them, are Persians against Jews, and Indians against Pakistanis. The whole world worries about this.

But even in comparison to the Pakistanis and the Jews, I think the Poles are less trustworthy with nukes.

Evidence this forum. Poland would be likely to actually use them.

But the principles of international relations for the last 80 years have just been ripped up. By a moron. In 80 days

We can of course elect a government that promises to protect us - and for that we need nukes

Guess what - the principles have changed since bald "Peter the Great" decided to go on a rampage in the middle of Europe in 21st century. Nobody gives a f*ck about 80-year-old rules anymore. You can now even invade a European country on the basis of denazifying it. :D


This is an outrageous statement that genuinely hurt my feelings. We are the epitome of trustworthiness.


Only if absolutely necessary and with aching heart.


You beat me to it, Cms.

EDIT: oh, you meant Trump? Putin did his part in ripping up principles too. There are no principles anymore.

Actually, there's only one principle left...

youtube.com/watch?v=GWo-LsB1W6w&ab_channel=Xaltuton1

*off to invent cool names for our nuclear missiles*

I don't know, I can see Poles "preemptively" firing such a weapon.

So that everyone knows they are serious.

:)

@everybody in the world

Please observe, ladies and gentlemen. Please observe:

Russians are exceedingly brave people; I am the last person on Earth to claim otherwise. Brave, tough, long-suffering motherf*ckers (in a good sense of the word). Very brave indeed. But there is one thing that genuinely terrifies them - Poles with nukes. hahahahaha

That's why we need to and will have them.

I fully admit this is the case

*high five*

Damn, I like you kiddo. Your mum must have looked kindly at some Pole a couple of decades ago. ;)

Of course its a joke.
Zelensky can sign any memorandum he wants but he has to get it and the details that follow through the Rada. These details include rewriting the tax regime and a shed load of other economic issues including land and extraction rights. Ukrainian Oligarchs have forced through structural changes in land holding which will have to be overturned to implement this as yet ill defined deal which isn't an easy thing.

There still isn't a ceasefire let alone an end to the war. You are right it is performative and I believe will it will fail.

With regard to atomic weapons Poland will not get them.

...and die...

Invasion is an analog process. Resorting to nukes is binary.

Before to decide to go binary you have to define where the trigger point is - aka the red line.

Imagine Russia started invading Poland on Jan 1, 20xx at the rate of 10,000 men a day. Give me the date when you would push that red button.

No BS essays. No "that depends". No "I don't deal with hypotheticals"...None of that evasive shlt.

The date.

I wouldn't. There would be no need. All that 10,000 men a day can accomplish while invading Poland is to die.

When I said 'invade' I meant the 1939-like scenario: millions of soldiers rolling in from every direction, our army getting crushed, our civilians being slaughtered - that kind of scenario.