Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 20

Where did you spy with your little eye threats? I'm laughing. You get a grip, it reminds me some crappy Polish film I don't remember anything about it except there was that one dude and he was reacting in the same way. Someone said good morning and he responded - are you threatening me? And so on.
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Twelve years jon, as J.D. will follow Father Trump for eight more years of common sense.
He won't let men participate in girls sports, use their bathrooms or pay for Europe's defense either.
The people have spoken and you have been told.

Pure comedy.

And no "we haven't been told" since internal policies there mean diddlysquat elsewhere.

And since their economy is tanking and their fuhrers Musk, Thiel, that puppet Vance and the orange barking 78 year old dog trumpet, won't be in again by any democratic means.

Thats not what I said, Mr. Twister
What i said was

No "we" in it


I guess you haven't heard, jon boy, egg prices are coming down and the stock market has had its normal correction.
You don't live here so I understand why you are so confused.
You have been told.

BTW - Has anyone seen my stalker this morning yet ?

Learn English.

Egg prices? Who cares. It's all the other rubbish full of chemicals that are banned in developed countries.

I think war will not end, but set to "pause" instead, just to repeat Minsk accord situation - prepare AFU for for another attack, replenish arsenals, and so on. If offer will not contain guarantees and responsibility of ukrainian side for violation of agreements (as it was with Minsk II) - it doesn't worth the paper it is written on...


I suspect that this will switch Russia to "maximum damage to war sponsors worldwide" mode.

I was sure we were debating the economy, Mr, Twister
How did your redirect go to chemicals that are banned ? Hoot !
You have become very boring and a waste of my time, jon.

Has anyone seen my stalker yet today ?
She is more fun to torment than you are.

This is not a debating club and eggs are cheap.

So are human lives there given the low life expectancy and stratospheric murder rate.

Hard to know how your fixation on sporting competitive categories relates to the tanking economy over there. Perhaps you're easily fooled by PR from people getting richer while you're getting poorer.

Good though that a ceasefire is being brokered. The key thing is to make sure the illegal r*SSian invaders can't use that time to rearm. Important to increase sanctions to a higher level than the world has ever seen.

@Velund
This is Vlads moment. This is the political statement of his career on the world stage. His ego may want more Ukraine land, but his pragmatic side will win the argument and agree to the cease fire. If Ukraine breaks the deal that allegedly has some guarantees for security attached, I think you would see everyone walk away from Ukraine. Lets be honest, Russia's ability to inflict damage on the US is minimal. Damage on Europe is also quite low since most trade has already stopped or could be replaced now that LNG is not needed by Europe. Russia has been isolated with the exception of India, China, NK and other dirt farmers. The Russian economy cannot continue in its current state for much longer. Not ending the war would likely be the end of Putin and I think he knows this.

Are US officials clever enough to recognize false flags? Cause' I'm not so sure they are.

Please explain how I am getting poorer.

I'm sure they are. They have good analysts etc. The question is how their junta react or don't.

That passive tense again...Good move, azzfucker...Your Muslim country is not at the table and as relevant as Albania.

Poland ranks higher...

Go back to bed. Serious things are being discussed.

And the passive is a voice rather than a tense...

No it "were" not according to your tenses.

I don't see how Putin can agree to a ceasefire, which may eventually turn into something more permanent - while Ukraine continues to occupy areas of Kursk Oblast.

Right now, things look like they're developing very quickly, and that the Ukrainians may be ejected within say a week. Zelensky already confirmed today that there is a withdrawal underway.

If it takes a week - then I can see how the Kremlin is able to request a week to "study the ceasefire proposal" (or some other excuse) - and then agree to it only once the Ukrainians have conclusively lost their negotiation leverage with Kursk.

But if the Ukrainians continue to hold on to pieces of Kursk for longer than a week or thereabouts - then Russia cannot agree to a ceasefire on the timeline being pushed by Rubio and Trump. The Ukrainians will then start blaming us for not playing ball, and complaining to the Americans that we are bad faith negotiators.

The other issue with this ceasefire is that it includes a resumption of military aid to Ukraine. This doesn't smell good... We give the Ukrainians a month to replenish their manpower and rearm - just when they are at their weakest in this three year long war?

Supplies of weapons to Ukraine should be paused for the duration of the ceasefire. If Russia violates it, then they can resume, and perhaps in larger volumes than previously. This would represent the stick for Russia, and the pause the carrot.

It is though, isn't it.

Don't try to correct people's grammar when you don't understand what you're trying to correct.

Now about Ukraine. The danger is always that a ceasefire would allow the r*SSians to rearm, however the reality is that they understand things are only going to get worse for them. That situation is very close to the tipping point, of that hasn't occurred already.

@Bobko
I think you see things pretty well most times. And I agree if Putin thinks he can retake Kursk in a week he will say he is studying things to buy that time. But, I dont think the take on Ukraine re-arming is accurate. The restarting of aid to Ukraine came because they broke to Trumps pressure. So, they get something for it, the carrot. But Ukraine knows they cant fight forever. They just dont have the men. With videos online of men being taken off the street against their will are everywhere, Zelensky is holding on to his political future for his life. I honestly dont think Vlad wants more of his own men killed either. Ukraine cannot replenish their manpower without lowering the conscription age again, and I think you would see a public turning on Zelensky if he tried.

That is exactly what I have been telling you.
You've been told.
Now about Russia not allowing NATO in on the negotiating.

Except of course that that is what you do. You know it, I know it, we all know it. Such transparent whoppers give lie to the veracity of everything else you squeeze out.

r*SSia doesn't call the shots here. NATO literally exists to rein them in, and neither r*SSia nor any other single entity decides who is or isn't included in any decision.

This war proves again the tactical superiority of blitzkrieg and "shock and awe".

Putin forgot that slow and easy is a disater in the making. Taking Ukraine should be a three-week, not three-year affair.

I still hate USMICC and their 1T "defense" budget but I am proud of how they handle military conflicts. As they say, if you want to inflict pain, do it quickly.


PF assfucking cuntdodgers do. I am so relieved...

You mean like claiming that my name is Jim Werdan ? LMFAO !
Yes jon, you got egg on your face from that whopping lie of yours also.
Everyone knows what a vindictive liar you are.
Russia will be calling the shots in the negotiation as will Ukraine.
NATO will be left out.

I think what happened with Kursk might have been some kind of a backroom deal.

I certainly don't think it was lost because the US suddenly stopped supplying intel.

The problems in Kursk started mounting already many months ago, and became critical long before Trump pulled the intel support.

But still, it's suspicious how rapidly it has all collapsed. Basically within a week Ukraine had lost territory that it had managed to defend since last August. Territory which Zelensky has many times called "crucial" for securing a "just and lasting peace". They had allocated their most capable units to the Kursk operation - another sign of its great importance from the POV of the Ukrainians.

So here's how the sequence of events looks from my side:

1) January 20th - Trump inauguration - Putin speaks at same time, and in this speech rules out any kind of potential ceasefires.

2) Trump team opens talks with Russia. Russia signals it is open to negotiations.

3) Zelensky and Trump have their famous problems. Ukraine is losing the PR game of "who's the biggest obstacle to peace?"

4) Ukraine does an about face, and begins making daily statements about how its ready for peace.

5) Here's where I think something happened. In their secret talks, the Americans tell the Russians - "the Ukrainians are ready to do a deal. The ball is in your court." The Russians say, "We are actually not ready." The Americans ask what needs to happen, and the Russians admit that "continued Ukrainian control over Kursk makes it impossible for us to negotiate - it's a matter of face."

6) The Americans then go back to the Ukrainians and say - "The Russians won't talk unless they are back in control of Kursk." The Ukrainians reply - "Fat chance!". The Americans then ask the Ukrainians, what would need to happen for them to leave Kursk. I think the Ukrainians said that at a minimum, they would like to see a full resumption of weapons and financial aid from the United States.

7) Aid and intelligence flows are restored, and Ukraine does its part by withdrawing from Kursk. After all, for them this is a defensive war, and them controlling Kursk does little in the eyes of the global public opinion.

8) Russia receives a valuable and important signal of credibility from the United States. The US promised to remove the Ukrainians from Kursk, and it fulfilled this promise. Now, Russia must reciprocate by entering into these talks that Trump wants so desperately - even though we're not in love with the idea. We have to do this, because now we have a stake in the relationship with the United States, and it is in Putin's interest to keep Trump happy. This was not the case with Biden.

Anyway, this is just my theory on the rapid collapse of Kursk.

I have to agree.
Putin would be wary of agreeing to a US-Ukraine proposed ceasefire deal at a time when his army is making gains on the battlefield as Russian forces continue to beat back Kyiv's troops in Kursk.

Americans putting pressure on Ukraine over Kursk would also not be without precedent.

Just when they initially invaded, there were already articles in the WaPo and other places leaking the Biden administration's displeasure. The concern then was whether or not Kursk is a wise use of men and materiel, and whether or not Ukraine might lose goodwill with neutral countries by taking the war into Russia.

So for Trump to really lean on the Ukrainians in regards to Kursk, in order to get these negotiations going - would represent some continuity with Biden.

I think from a Russian point of view, there was nothing else Trump could have possibly done, that would make Russia more comfortable going into these talks... that is give us the comfort that this will not be some kind of ambush.

If Trump had nothing to do with Kursk, and its all just a coincidence - then I would vote "No" to a ceasefire.

It means then that Ukraine is really on its last legs. It means we can keep pushing and pushing, until the whole thing collapses.

But if Trump did have something to do with Kursk, like I said - I think we gotta to Saudi Arabia and at least pretend like we're interested. It's the least we owe him.

You better be careful with words like 'desperately' or 'desperate' in relation to Trump or Novi will be all over you like a lawyer on a loophole. xD

Ok, how about "these talks that Trump really, really, really wants Russia to join"?

The man wants a Nobel Peace Prize like Obama.

He wants to do a reverse Nixon on China.

Russia represents the very best opportunity he has to pull these things off.

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Did you read any more of Aven's book?

If Russia refuses Trumps 30 day cease fire he will put sanctions on all countries trading anything with Russia and right now Russia's economy can't afford that so it is all up to Russia at this point.
In my personal opinion that is.

For those out of the news loop (or still harboring dreams of russians acting civilized).

On Monday, off the coast of the UK, a Portuguese flagged cargo ship 'Solong' T-boned the US flagged Stena, which was carrying jet fuel for the US Dep of Defense.

The US ship would have been visible by radar for 29 k and not only the the Solong head straight toward it not effort was made to reduce speed.

Now it appears the captain of the Solong and most of the crew are...... (gasp) ...... (shock) ..... russians.

The captain has been arrested by the UK.

No word yet on how Trump reacted/will react to a russian direct attack on the US military.

Apparently the captain trained at an elite... at least for russia school for naval officers.

x.com/SkyNews/status/1899746341447749639

x.com/SkyNews/status/1899855386527567892

x.com/joerichlaw/status/1899755709987725530