Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 2

@GefreiterKania
You could be right. I have thought of some pretty dark scenarios as well. I think that Ukraine will give up the counter offensives until the MLRS arrive. Dig in and hold on for a while would be the best strategy and take opportune moments to hit the Russian fleet. Then when the heavy gear comes in, pump all of it continuously for days.

@PolAmKrakow

True. The standing Ukrainian army outnumbers the forces Russia commited for the invasion (and there is still the question of calling to arms as many as a million reservists), so it all looks like either, as you say, Ukies are waiting for more heavy equipment to arm reservists and start full counter-offensive or something else has secretely been agreed upon and what we see now is just a circus for the public opinion (let's remember that it's not only Putin that has to "save face" here).

Oh, well... let's wait and see.

Scholz and Macron are objectively on Putin's side so possibly. That approach worked so well in 2014 why not repeat it so that Germany can suck at the cheap gas teat again?

Or it might be attrition. Russia raising the enlistment age sounds kind of desperate and lots of analysts were saying June is when feet on the ground are going to start to be a bigger and bigger issue....

One of the winds of change letters predicted June as the time when the effect of sanctions could no longer be hidden by Soviet style accounting and the entire country will be effectively back in the 1990s economically (except for its filthy and useless criminal elite). That was expected to last until about September when economic freefall would arrive...

It might be a good idea to freeze things a bit and let time work....

It would, unfortunately, seem so.


That sounds like a sensible solution. Try not to waste too much forces and equipment because time is on our side - Russia will only be getting weaker economically and militarily (it's T62s in May, but they might need T34s in September if it lasts that long) whilst Ukrainian army will be constantly resupplied and will gain the ability to raise more reserve forces (armed with western weapons).

Yes, that would definitely be a more preferable scenario than "everyone saves their faces and we keep buying cheap gas/oil" that some politicians in the West dream about.

Time is Ukraine's greatest weapon at this point. Buying time and holding on until more heavy weapons arrive will save lives and allow for better preparation on a big counter offensive. Putin is clearly grasping at straws increasing the age limits and now stealing iron and steel that is in Ukraine. Z needs to tone down the rhetoric at this point and be more strategic.

Germany needs to deliver on its promises. Nothing has been sent to Ukraine since March 25th from Germany. This is an absolute BS move and Scholz should be removed from office for breaking these commitments. While it looked like Germany was coming around, actions do not match the words.

We sent 240 modernised T-72s to Ukraine, and apparently Germany promised to replace those with certain number of Leopards. So far we received none, and it doesn't look like we will anytime soon.

We would have sent the tanks anyway. We can do without them and still have quite ample panzer forces with PT-91s and older Leopards; also brand new Abrams will be arriving soon, but it does leave a bad taste in the mouth - the broken promise.

Scholz is such a nut....I'm so so sorry....*bows head shamefully*

I really thought it can get only better after Merkel....boy was I wrong!

*leaves door quietly behind him*

You don't have to be sorry, BB. Ordinary people, like you and me, have very little influence on what the politicians in power do. They need our voices during election time, and then they just do whatever they feel like. :-/

...sad truth! Still....I would prefer to be proud of Germany right now....

I can only say that most Germans think so....Scholz' party, the SPD, is in free fall in all polls....today he wouldn't get voted into Chancellorship anymore! And if he doesn't watch it he is in for lotsa nasty surprises in all coming elections! He will destroy that grand old party all alone.

To late for Ukraine, I know....

Glad to hear that.

As for Ukraine, if Mafketis is right, then maybe not everything is lost yet. Time is working for Ukrainians, let's keep our fingers crossed.

Stop your sniveling and stand up straight. I am not German and I still feel embarrassed for you. Germany is leading by example. It is showing restraint and long-term foresight, while others are either shamelessly cynical (Boris), or bowed by the "peer pressure" of America (which has its own goals, separate and distinct from Europe's).


Germany is not such an important country to be able to change the situation strategically in Ukraine, one way or the other. It has been demilitarized and pacifistic for too long, to be able to change itself in 3 months, a year, or even a decade. Simply put - Germany has a lot of homework to do. Stop giving yourself so much credit as far as what you could do about Ukraine. When you understand this, your guilt for not doing enough will also subside (regardless of how much dirt Zelensky and Duda continuing throwing at you - that's all they can really do).

What do you think about the hypothesis that Russia was suckered into invading by the US and NATO... poor, little Russia, outsmarted by the US...... again!!!!!!!

Supporting Putin means supporting the US and NATO!!!!!

Ain't that a kick in the head?

Just read a report that Belarus was putting together a citizens militia. It needs to be done according to Dictator Retard to protect the border with Ukraine and Poland. Belarus has an army of 45,000, yes, only 45,000 in the whole country. Meanwhile there are more than 40,000 US soldiers alone in Poland. Yes, Poland should be $hittin* their pants that Belarus might invade or start a war with Poland! LMFAO Belarus is a gnat on the @$$ of Europe.

Very far from lost. Time is on Ukraine's side and this was always going to be the hardest couple of weeks


They're taking people for cúnts.


They just want it all to go away so they can keep making money and retain their hegemony in Europe. That boat has however put to sea and is likely to sail away.

The coming food crisis will change a lot too..

This won`t happen if not part of the plan to change shape of both countries. If that`s the plan then leaders of both countries starts behave like Zelenski at one moment. We would know if that happen.

It did. But it seems that Poland sensed an opportunity and asked for the newest version of the Leopard 2 which not even the Bundeswehr yet has and thus is unable to deliver. Instead Germany offered older versions of the Leopard 2 (which would still be a aignificant upgrade compared to the tanks given to Ukraine) and deliver the newest version later which was declined by Warsaw.

Very strange, if true.

Even the older versions, as you say, would be more than sufficient replacement of the T-72s. The plot thickens.

Yeah....*scratches head*

Look here:

notesfrompoland.com/2022/05/24/poland-accuses-germany-of-reneging-on-promise-to-provide-tanks-to-replace-those-given-to-ukraine/

The old Leopards are still super cool!

Update:
Hmmmm....I found that article in the FAZ.....

faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/panzer-fuer-ukraine-deutschland-zoegert-ringtausch-polen-17993873.html

Thanks for the links, BB (I don't have FAZ subscription, so can't read the second one). The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in the middle. In times like that one wishes that there would be one decision centre in the EU, instead of 27 countries with various interests, aims and means. :-/

Personally I don't have much confidence in the Scholz government but the Polish government is hardly credible when it comes to Germany. Would be interesting to know if there are indeed only a few number of the newest tanks available.


Indeed. And superior to pretty much anything Russia can field.

*nods*

That would be so much better!

The Czechs took the old Leopards during the Ringtausch btw....that one worked flawlessly like announced!

"....The donation will be provided by the German defense industry and include 14 combat-ready Leopard 2 A4 tanks, one replacement tank, spare parts, and ammunition....."

thedefensepost.com/2022/05/23/germany-leopard-tanks-czech-republic/

The article also mentions that they have to pay for the newest Leopard models nonetheless....

"....The countries will also begin negotiations to purchase up to 50 of Germany's most recent Leopard 2 A7+ tanks for the Czech Army...."

So no gifts here....

That makes it sound plausible that there had been a misunderstanding between Warsaw and Berlin.....that the polish gov truly expected the newest Leopard for free?

Germans are spewing a lot of lies and misinformation for the last three month. Will you really belive that one? Germans promise this weapon or other weapon to Ukrainie at this date or other date ...and nothing happnes.

Only our resident German nationalist Tacitus get all wroked up about it and belive every word of German leader like a good little German that he is. Hail Schorder or whatever his name is.

I suspect that same is with that info about Poland demanding some kind of master blaster German tanks rather then take some less up to date. I suspect that either that is a lie and they haven't offered anything or they offer some junk that wouldn't be better than our twardy91 and ask a fortune to bring it up to date.

I don't unsrsand Germans they sell they weapon left and right and given some reason they could sell to Poland some nice tanks, those small submarines but they don't want. That means they don't see Russia as a threat and they don't want to arm Poland even in a little way to make it eaier for Russia and themselves.

As to their leader. I think there is pretty much a very simple explanation of his action (bisade German plan to wait for Russian victory) he had been one of those young German left leaders that had been compromised by the Soviet spy agency. They got their hook in him and are using it now.

Looks like the Czechs got 15 Leopards 2A4 for 15 T-72s (not even that thoroughly modernised as Polish versions). I'd say that's a very good deal. If the one-to-one deal was offered to Poland too, then we should absolutely take the 240 older versions of Leopards.

My guess, only a guess, is that a lower number than 240 older Leos was offered to us, so then Poland pouted and said that in such case we want newer versions. Then Germany said "take it or leave it", so Poland told them to stuff it. Yeah... seems like a likely scenario. *rolls eyes*


Never! *rolls eyes even more*


... damn it... that's a scary thing to even consider. :-/

"Western sanctions hurt the West more than russia, but please remove them in exchange for grain shipment."
Sanctions make us stronger! But seriously, please remove them. We don't need unfair advantage :-D

@Korvinus

There is two different targets - to weaken Russia by sanctions and to avoid risk of famine by shipments from Russia. Choose the one that is more important to you. ;) Can't have both at once.

People, forget about Putin being crazy. Did you sow that Alina Kabaeva and her agility? And her smile

Zelenski may play piano with his dic* and Biden may losing himself. Putin? He knows what he doing. He plays on Alina.

Hasn't Russia starved enough people to death already?

Maybe try a different tactic now and again....

After talked to Putin today, Serbian president announced that some `war deal` exist between Moscow and Kiev. No details are known on this, while this news confirms that Serbia do mediate in process of finding peaceful solution. Also was said that Serbia continue to receive Russian gas and resources on privileged means.

I already did. I want to see russia on its knees, sucking Polish dick.

Anyway, RU is winning so much that is sending 64 yo man in T62. UA is fighting using NATO standards and tactics IE - Only advance with firepower superiority while RU is using "zerg rush"

twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1530584180874170368

This is what Russian "victory" looks like in Mariupol, random bodies dumped in a supermarket.... In the future, many Russians will play dumb and claim they had 'no idea' of what was being done in their names.... don't believe it. They want this to happen and if they're not stopped it will happen more and more.

(warning: very graphic picture, the essence of Russkij Mir)

twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1530865316808507392