Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 5

@GefreiterKania

In support of what PAK wrote, here is a quote from Newt Gingrich - former Congressman from Georgia, House Minority Whip, and finally Speaker of the House.

Newt, in his own words:

"Estonia is in the suburbs of St. Petersburg. The Russians aren't gonna necessarily come across the border militarily. The Russians are gonna do what they did in Ukraine," he said. "I'm not sure I would risk a nuclear war over some place which is the suburbs of St. Petersburg. I think we have to think about what does this stuff mean."

The only way you can go higher than the Speaker of the House is the President. So I think it's fair to say that what Newt said, is the position of much of the Republican establishment. This is how much of America thinks about its Article V obligation.

Source: nationalreview.com/corner/estonia-newt-gingrich-and-strategery/

Why would it if it has escalated to nuclear warfare?

The US is not the only nuclear state in NATO (4 times mentioned now?).

t.me/EuropeElects/10737

The pollster grouped all left-wing opposition parties into a coalition and asked how people would vote.

The biggest winner is the nationalist and reactionary Konfederacja.

The question remains how PiS and the Konfederacja could come to an agreement because they differ on geopolitics, although they agree on almost everything related to domestic politics.

On the other hand, the left opposition and PiS agree on geopolitics, but not on domestic politics.

PiS will have to choose, either a shift to the left in favor of Ukraine or a step to the right and it's curtains for Ukraine.

@GefreiterKania
Not to offend your great grandmother, I am sure she was smokin hot. Just that the idea of me supporting anything Russian is completely offensive. As for schabowe I am up for fighting for it, but I live here. The US is not going to fight for it.

Russia has never stopped fighting wars until they lose a half million men. The US has only gone to war when directly attacked or threatened, other than Vietnam and Korea that is. Current climate in the US, is not one of blood lust like after 9/11. The US will spend and deliver, but its not about to bleed for Europe again.

@jon357
If you think for one second that any NATO country other than the US responding with nukes to a Russian nuke will survive then you really need to seek help. There are limits to war today. Russia understands this, and so does German and France. No one wants an all out nuke war even confined to Europe, and the US is not going to go to that escalation point to save anyone in the EU or NATO. Just not going to happen.

Well, yet another reason for Poland to get nuclear weapons then.

Why can Romance people (France), Germanic (the UK, USA), Asian (China, Russia) or Jewish (as well as the various Hindu, Paki tribes) be allowed to have atomic weapons and Slavic countries be deprived of them? Poland as the largest, most populous and strongest militarily Slavic state should be a nuclear power.

Change my mind.

@PolAm

I am immensely disillusioned at the moment :(

t.me/EuropeElects/10726

Poland's nationalist and anti-EU, anti-NATO right is surging in the polls.

Some think that PiS and they will certainly form a coalition after the next elections, but I am not so sure. For that to happen, PiS must compromise on geopolitics. The Konfederacja gains nothing if they compromise on geopolitics in favor of continuing the status quo.

When it does "spend and deliver" that is alot and Europe will be grateful...that could probably be the decider in any european conflict!
And I agree that an inner-european conflict should be slugged out by Europeans mainly...there are enough NATO members here to fulfull article 5 after all.

But....I wonder how the many USians with....say....polish ancestry will react if their "homeland" will be attacked....likewise the millions with german background...or french.

I could imagine that these people are easier convinced to do alot more for the attacked friend and ally....just wondering....

Nobody will survive; that's the point of Mutually Assured Destruction. r*SSia knows very well that if they fired a strategic nuclear weapon at either the UK, France or for that matter at a Polish city, Moscow would be nuked, as would most of their population centres.

And your country wouldn't survive a nuclear attack on its major population centres either.


Agreed. I don't know how much support there would be, however as we head to war, there may well be a change in outlook. Problem is, they take a long time to make and deploy.


Moderate your tone and learn some manners.

t.me/hotptakes/6627

They are demanding the recall of the ambassador who announces the sending of the Polish army to Ukraine.

Stop polluting this thread with Polish internal politics - it belongs to 2023 elections thread. .

Imagine a strike somewhere in the Southeast. In Essex, for example. Not on London proper, but somewhere in the vicinity. Do you really feel that the UK, without consultations with Washington, without considering the potential of a wider conflagration, would simply launch a unilateral strike on Moscow?

The UK must live on this planet, even after such an epic war. How would it manage relations with France and the United States, if Britain action's triggered attacks on Paris and Washington D.C.?

No, a Russian strike at Essex will trigger a retaliation strike at a similarly sized Russian city. Name some potential targets coz we are poor at Russian geography. :):):)

.....I guess the retaliation will be about some russian Essex, something comparable!

Because the main point still stands....no country will be allowed to nuke first without paying the price....THAT would be an invitation for every madman and probably the end of human life as we know it!

Exactly. Moscow can wait, it isn`t a squirrel to escape and hide in trees. hahahaha

Yes, it is rather a cow sh....t in the meadow.

Nothing 'simple' about it, however yes, of course. Somewhere comparable, perhaps Sparrow Hills.

Putler and his orcs may be deranged, however they are not so suicidally stupid to nuke anywhere in the UK, never mind the region around London,

And I won't even mention the thing that nobody talks about, 2,500 children of ther*SSian rich and powerful attending boarding schools in the UK. We wouldn't be so crass as to describe them as a 'human shield' although though of course Putler's advisors might...


It would of course be r*SSia's actions that triggered any escalation. Since it would only be r*SSia and nobody else who fired the first nuke.


And they'd be crapping themselves while they waited...

They can nuke Southend though. That's a dump.

Funny, it's getting closer to Whitehall. Last time in some other nuke thread you told me nuking Manchester shouldn't cause too much of an uproar.

If I were to try to come up with some such equivalent, grudgingly, I would have to say it'd actually be Moscow. Everyone hates it.

Not just people from St. Petersburg and every other Russian city with a population over a million, but even the many millions of people that live in Moscow due to work. I think, born and bred Muscovites still love it very much, but they are in a minority as a part of the population.

Moscow is like a New York on steroids. It takes the cream off of the entire country, leaving everyone else fighting for scraps. NYC somehow leaves enough oxygen for Chicago, LA, Miami, and Houston to exist. Moscow sucks all the air out of the system. In terms of capital, in terms talent, in terms of education, etc. It like a F-in squid that won't stop growing.

Only the bit around Old Trafford.


We feel the same about London.

Read what Felstinsky said recently in Warsaw. It's very interesting.

If Russians nuked London they would.
Never doubt it......

Exactly.

We've been hearing those constant nuclear threats from Russia since day 1 of this war. At this point it's just boring and with every new threat it gets even more pathetic and despicable.

@Bobko

Aren't you just a little bit ashamed about those threats? Just a little. Or do you consider it normal?

Oh they will start off with just a little nuke to see what NATO is going to do about it and my guess is not much.

It depends if they nuke Ukraine or NATO land.

@Alien
Regardless of target, and even a nuke would as miscalculated or "accidental" it would lead to a gigantic increase in military budget of most countries in europe and "We want to be part of NATO populations on steroids"

@johnny reb
Exactly what I am saying. The US is not going to risk its existance on behalf of Europe. The US is not going to send more men to die for Europe. They will continue to send everything else, but the appetite for war when the US has not been attacked is zero. The myth that Article 5 will automatically include everyone agreeing to a nuclear strike is Russia makes one, is just that a myth.

A tactical nuke will bring a tactical non nuclear response from all of NATO if it is on NATO members. If it is on Ukraine, we already know what the response will be. Washington is not going to press any buttons unless the US is threatened or there is an attack on US soldiers. I think Poland realizes this and it is exactly why they are spending billions now on defensive hardware. A few years from now, Poland will be the biggest military power in the EU. But until all the equipment arrives, the EU need the US to keep supplying the hardware. Poland has not been bombed already because Putin knows an attack killing US soldiers means that the war goes from 20 KPH to 160 KPH in one second.

What's the point though, if all this huge army can be nuked and it will only cause a "tactical, non nuclear response"?

If, as you say, Polish government knows this, then they should certainly get nukes. I mean, what do we need NATO for in such scenario? In a conventional war we can wipe the floor with Russian army ourselves (with one hand while picking our nose with the other) - nuclear umbrella is what we need NATO for and, according to you, it doesn't exist. Wtf?

Another (unintented by Putin) side effect of his invasion is the deepening of military ties between European countries.

The Netherlands strengthens cooperation: army largely under German command | inland

paudal.com/2023/03/30/the-netherlands-strengthens-cooperation-army-largely-under-german-command-inland/

Apparantly similiar plans are discussed with other countries as well. Thank you Putin, you most likely helped to bring about Brexit and reminded Europe that there are still military threats to peace. In other words,, if we witness the realization of an European army within the next 10-20 years, we will only have you to thank for.

@GefreiterKania
I agree. Poland should have at least a half dozen ICBM's and some tecticals as well. If they haven't worked on these in secret, then thats a problem. Russia is not going to nuke Poland. If they want Poland why would they make any part of it uninhabitable for 100 years? The EU can not wipe the floor with Russia themselves, because the EU is not prepared. The EU can't even make it so Ukraine has what they need.

The EU, three years from now will be incredibly strong and Russia will be much weaker. When Putin is trying to trade food for weapons with North Korea, that shows Putin has big problems. China still not sending any weapons. China waiting to take back its traditional lands from Russia. A weakened Russia is better for the entire world. Putin knows this too, and he knows this is his last opportunity to become a big historical figure in Russia. Any official taking of Ukraine territory makes Putin a hero in Russian history books, and that is what he wants.

Of course it can. Half a billion people and economy that literally dwarves Russia. The problem is not about being prepared but about political willingness to fight. This, however, is changing and what Russia did was awakening the sleeping giant. A mistake they will pay for dearly.

*nods*

For good or bad, that change is enormous and will have enormous consequences....Germany is already changing so much....that will stay even with Putin long gone!

@GefreiterKania
I think the political willingness to fight is there. I think the people are willing to fight too. Everyone is tired of Russia's threats. The same old song and dance for a century. But Europe is not prepared. The hardware is not here, the training has not been done. You need bodies and equipment that no one has yet. Three years from now? Yes. I would agree the EU would clean up.

Russia is being ground down now. Not only are they losing tremendous amounts of men and equipment, but the Russian economy is in a nose dive and they can not replace what they are losing. The Russian GDP fell by 3% this last year and will fall another 5% this year. Foreign companies leaving Russia not only have to take half price of the value of their company, but have to pay a 10% fee of the final sale price to the Russian government when the sale is done. Putin is a drowning man grasping at straws. When trading food for weapons to NK is on the table, things in Russia are very bad.