Why did Xi and Biden meet in California. Strange that Xi travelled to the US?
Maybe they met in California, because San Francisco is hosting this year's APEC summit? Maybe it was Xi that made the trip, because he promised he would at least a year in advance?
What's more, Russia was at that summit too - represented by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk.
"He's being treated as the head of delegation, and he'll have the opportunity to participate fully in the week's events," Matt Murray, the State Department official in charge of APEC, told AFP.
Xi Jinping met with the chairman of the r*SSian 'duma' Vyacheslav Volodin, in Beijing on Wednesday. Coincidence?
This has more merit. It's entirely possible, that Xi agreed to apply pressure to the Russians, in parallel to Biden applying pressure on the Ukrainians. Pressure to sit down and negotiate, that is. For what it's worth, today Putin released another statement to the effect that he's always open to talks. So you may not be far off the mark with this.
throwing meat at Avdiivka and other parts of Donbas trying to secure as much ground as possible before any agreement.
This makes sense too. Avdeevka sits 10KM away from the city of Donetsk. Having control over it allows Ukraine to shell the city, and it can also act as a future launching board for a UA offensive to retake the Donbass. Securing the city, would allow Putin to argue that he has removed the proximate threat to the residents of Donetsk. On the other hand, he promised that the minimum goal would be reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. There's still some way to go to achieve that, even after Avdeevka.
The optimistic take, is that there is little to the rear of Avdeevka to prevent a Russian breakout, if the town does eventually fall (likely through an encirclement). Avdeevka itself is an impregnable fortress built up over almost ten years. However, the Ukrainians have neglected to build 2nd and 3rd lines of defense. This is causing some acrimony in their press. There is also no Chasiv Yar, or Konstantinovka type town in the rear (as there was in Bakhmut), which could anchor a new frontline. Just a collection of tiny villages.
I think the problem here, with all your conjecture, is not Putin but Zelensky. He seems to be resolved to carry on the war, and constantly dismisses the idea of negotiations. Instead, he ratcheted things up a notch, by saying he'd kill Putin if given the chance.