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Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 7



Bobko
21 Nov 2023  #4411

Russia is in possession of traditional Cinese lands

Russia benefited the most of any European country, from the so-called "Unequal Treaties" that were forced on China in the 19th century. That being said, this was only in terms of square footage. The British took the much juicier outposts in the South China Sea.

Here is a map of what Russia took from China. It's not that much, and China has found its peace with the losses. In 2003 we signed an agreement recognizing each other's borders.

P.S. - I remembered that we also annexed a bunch of Chinese land in the West. However, that land is now under Kazakh and Kyrgyz sovereignty. The Chinese can take it up with those fellas, just as Poland has to look for its Kresy in Belarus and Ukraine. Not our problem!


  • IMG_0097.jpeg

Mr Grunwald
21 Nov 2023  #4412

The Chinese can take it up with those fellas, just as Poland has to look for its Kresy in Belarus and Ukraine. Not our problem!

I don't know about China but, after 1945 Poland kind of lost apetite for any form of military conquest eastwards on any grounds. Legitimate or not in own eyes or Russian eyes.

Poland has gained A lot more from investing in it's own territories and saved money from not having to be drained in less lucrative eastern territories.

Until eastern Poland is fully developed and functioning, it is only out of necessity that Poland involves itself with Belarus or Ukraine. With aim to buy Poland time before a possible invasion happends, taking lands in Belarus or Ukraine would only speed up the process, not extend it.

jon357
21 Nov 2023  #4413

after 1945 Poland kind of lost apetite for any form of military conquest eastwards

Wise to say the least however one key thing is that Poland takes defence seriously.

gained A lot more from investing in it's own territories and saved money from not having to be drained

Poland got a good deal. Wroclaw, Gdansk and Szczecin are far more important than Lviv and swamps in Belarus.

Bobko
21 Nov 2023  #4414

Poland has gained A lot more from investing in it's own territories and saved money from not having to be drained in less lucrative eastern territories

How very cold and rational.

Not everything can be measured in dollars and cents, dear Grunnie.

My point with Chinese lands now in Kazakhstan, or Polish lands now in Belarus, or even German lands now in Poland - is that Russia is a very generous country.

We don't take just for ourselves, but to share with our dysfunctional and retarded family.

PolAmKrakow
21 Nov 2023  #4415

@Mr Grunwald
Good points for sure. Poland has not been an agressive country for centuries. Really is has only sought the betterment of its people for nearly its entire history. Going to war for land is simply stupid for Poland to even consider. Big enough country, and with EU money coming back in, the country will be even better. Russia should have taken this approach five centuries ago. Imagine what it could have become.

Mr Grunwald
21 Nov 2023  #4416

@Bobko
I take the approach of: Get wealth, so that you can develop what you need and wish for afterwards.

Ignoring development at the cost of wasting money isn't smart, no matter how cold one is or not.

PolAn, I am big on imagination. Might write a book about how Russia could have turned out one day

Bobko
21 Nov 2023  #4417

Get wealth, so that you can develop what you need and wish for afterwards.

So you are a typical burgher, not able to see beyond your simple mercantile needs.

Ask the Poles that were deported from the Kresy, and living on their suitcases for decades in Silesia, if it was worth investing in those "swamps".

Mr Grunwald
21 Nov 2023  #4418

@Bobko
I am not a Burgher, and I know fairly well how that played out. Those families had better treatment then my own mind you. So that kind of "talk" won't convince me.

I'll build back up everything I lost and my family, and I don't need to degrade myself to a bandit, thief or a simple robber to achieve that.

Russia by invading Ukraine has already admitted to not being able to outperform the west or U.S.A by other means then military conquest.

Bobko
21 Nov 2023  #4419

am not a Burgher

It's not an insult, but a description of your world view.

Mr Grunwald
21 Nov 2023  #4420

@Bobko
I just accepted certain hard truths about this world, and that is. I need food, a house and means to provide myself for it.

Have that in place and wanting it, does not make me a "Burgher" wanting only that or mainly would make me a Burgher

Bobko
21 Nov 2023  #4421

Have that in place and wanting it, does not make me a "Burgher"

Of course not.

Having a house, food, and warmth does not make you a spoiled burgher.

Saying that it's better to have Silesia, then the economically unproductive Kresy - that makes you a
mercantilist burgher with blinders on his eyes.

Lenka
21 Nov 2023  #4422

Ask the Poles that were deported from the Kresy, and living on their suitcases for decades in Silesia,

My family moved to Silesia. They probably felt sad about what they lost but also saw the potential in Silesia. My grandpa was amazed at the infrastructure. He kept saying how wealthy we would have been if we had the means to expedite our produce available in Silesia.

Noone in Poland thinks about getting Kresy back. That is in the past. Done and dusted. We moved on. Maybe that is a lesson Russians should take.

Alien
21 Nov 2023  #4423

My family moved to Silesia

Poland's shift to the west was the best thing that could have happened to Poland after World War II. The further from russia, the better.

pawian
21 Nov 2023  #4424

after World War II.

No, in all its history after the baptism of 966. Glory to the EU with Poland in it !!!!

mafketis
21 Nov 2023  #4425

better to have Silesia, then the economically unproductive Kresy - that makes you a mercantilist burgher with blinders

Polish people do not want to participate in depraved russian fantasies of chopping Ukraine up like a Thanksgiving Turkey (will you be giving thanks you're not actually in russia?).

Not today, Ivan.

Maybe that is a lesson Russians should take

That would be nice, but russians are very slow learners and are still stuck mentally in the 19th century.... wish they'd catch up.

amiga600
22 Nov 2023  #4426

@bobko
I got a response to your summary of modern chinese history from my friend. First she asked me what i though. Naturally I said we polish hate the ruskis so of course we disagree completely. Then she got slightly defensive and said of course i'm Han Chinese but China is a lot more than that. It is many people and many tribes.

I translate that as the chinese people and chinese nation are a multi-ethnic. multicultural nation-state. but the han chinese at the top of the pyramid

Like everywhere in the world, there are mulattoes tho, even in russia.

It's like the Tatars in Poland.

jon357
22 Nov 2023  #4427

Some points that came to me this morning:

1. 'Some people' say Ukraine is running out of fighting men and women. With 2 million aged within the current Ukrainian definition of fighting age, this is not the case. Ukraine prosecutes their war via technology (drones, 155mm artillery and missiles) to minimise casualties.

2. r*SSia still uses human wave attacks and have lost a massive percentage of their army and conscripts. 325,000 casualties and rising.

3. r*SSia needs another draft but cannot before the election on 17th March 2024. They will not receive reinforcements over winter.

4. Why did Xi and Biden meet in California. Strange that Xi travelled to the US? This suggests he was the one with a proposal. It wasn't on green emissions.

5. Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv 72 hours later. I wonder what message he was taking?

6. Xi Jinping met with the chairman of the r*SSian 'duma' Vyacheslav Volodin, in Beijing on Wednesday. Coincidence?

7. r*SSia is throwing meat at Avdiivka and other parts of Donbas trying to secure as much ground as possible before any agreement.

8. r*SSia's attempt to engulf the Middle East in war has failed as Iran deserted Hamas. It also failed in its intended purpose of forcing the US to divert significant resources in that direction.

Join the dots.

PolAmKrakow
22 Nov 2023  #4428

This is where things are in the US as reported out of Kiev:

kyivpost.com/post/24473

The US congress is not due back in session until the 28th. There is no new Ukraine business set to be debated yet. Ukraine is desperate to receive more equipment and that will eventually come. They wont be getting more cash out of this congress though unless Biden addresses border security. Without cash Ukraine cant pay soldiers or anyone one else. Still waiting to hear which EU countries are going to pick up all the financing of the war.

Meanwhile its getting very cold in Ukraine temps regularly below zero now. Once the land is frozen will we see the Abrams on the front lines? New planes in the air? Positive thinking isnt going to beat little Vlad. Ukraine needs to go full mobilization, and full war time economy. Why wont Z do this?

Bobko
22 Nov 2023  #4429

Why did Xi and Biden meet in California. Strange that Xi travelled to the US?

Maybe they met in California, because San Francisco is hosting this year's APEC summit? Maybe it was Xi that made the trip, because he promised he would at least a year in advance?

What's more, Russia was at that summit too - represented by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk.

"He's being treated as the head of delegation, and he'll have the opportunity to participate fully in the week's events," Matt Murray, the State Department official in charge of APEC, told AFP.

Xi Jinping met with the chairman of the r*SSian 'duma' Vyacheslav Volodin, in Beijing on Wednesday. Coincidence?

This has more merit. It's entirely possible, that Xi agreed to apply pressure to the Russians, in parallel to Biden applying pressure on the Ukrainians. Pressure to sit down and negotiate, that is. For what it's worth, today Putin released another statement to the effect that he's always open to talks. So you may not be far off the mark with this.

throwing meat at Avdiivka and other parts of Donbas trying to secure as much ground as possible before any agreement.

This makes sense too. Avdeevka sits 10KM away from the city of Donetsk. Having control over it allows Ukraine to shell the city, and it can also act as a future launching board for a UA offensive to retake the Donbass. Securing the city, would allow Putin to argue that he has removed the proximate threat to the residents of Donetsk. On the other hand, he promised that the minimum goal would be reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. There's still some way to go to achieve that, even after Avdeevka.

The optimistic take, is that there is little to the rear of Avdeevka to prevent a Russian breakout, if the town does eventually fall (likely through an encirclement). Avdeevka itself is an impregnable fortress built up over almost ten years. However, the Ukrainians have neglected to build 2nd and 3rd lines of defense. This is causing some acrimony in their press. There is also no Chasiv Yar, or Konstantinovka type town in the rear (as there was in Bakhmut), which could anchor a new frontline. Just a collection of tiny villages.

I think the problem here, with all your conjecture, is not Putin but Zelensky. He seems to be resolved to carry on the war, and constantly dismisses the idea of negotiations. Instead, he ratcheted things up a notch, by saying he'd kill Putin if given the chance.

jon357
22 Nov 2023  #4430

Most pertinently, the UK Ministry of Defence said today:

the battle at the Dnipro bridgehead "will be considered highly unfortunate by Russian leaders. The ground fighting has been characterised by confused, dismounted infantry combat and artillery exchanges in complex, wooded terrain,"

"Ukraine has made particularly effective use of small attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, while the Russian Air Force is conducting significant numbers of sorties in support of frontline troops, predominantly launching munitions from beyond the range of Ukraine's air defences."


And in further good news, Poland has arrested and charged 16 people with spying for r*SSia, including spreading propaganda to turn Polish public opinion against Ukraine.

Bobko
22 Nov 2023  #4431

the battle at the Dnipro bridgehead "will be considered highly unfortunate by Russian leaders

The UK MoD is an even bigger joke than the ISW. Actually... I don't know about that, but it's basically known to make only vague and largely unprovable statements. Unfailingly their public statements are praiseful of Ukraine, while at the same time they never note any Russian successes. In this way, they spent the summer months constantly reporting "meaningful" Ukrainian advances, but somehow glossed over the counteroffensive's disappointing culmination.

The fact of the matter re: the Dnipro bridgeheads, is that Ukraine is digging its own grave. When the enemy is engaged in committing such costly blunders, it's best not to interfere.

It's not everyday that you see what is essentially a whole division, being fed piecemeal - company by company - onto an unsecured bridgehead, separated from your lines by a wide river and impassable swamps.

I think what the Russian General Staff is doing is letting the Ukrainians fill that pocket with even more men, before shutting the trap tight. For the same reason it was impossible for us to defend on the Right Bank, it will be impossible for Ukraine to hold on to their bridgeheads on the Left Bank.

Unlike Ukraine, we had a lot more pontoon bridges, barges, and amphibious vehicles. We even had a half-working bridge, and an intact dam. It still didn't work.

You think Ukraine will supply a whole offensive with inflatable rubber boats?

jon357
22 Nov 2023  #4432

The UK MoD is an even bigger joke than the ISW.

To paraphrase one of the best courtroom quotes in the history of law: "Well you would say that, wouldn't you..."

We even had a half-working bridge, and an intact dam. It still didn't work.

Like so much in this 'three day special operation'.

r*SSia's options narrow by the day.

Bobko
22 Nov 2023  #4433

@jon357

The reality of Ukrainian bridgehead logistics:


  • IMG_0105.jpeg

jon357
22 Nov 2023  #4434

The reality

The reality is that they've done pretty well given that r*SSia has lost hundreds of tons of meat in uniform and are currently withdrawing.

Mr Grunwald
22 Nov 2023  #4435

@Bobko
Problem with offensive doctrines, is that if not performed good enough. It can waste an entire army. After that an opponent might as well just send civilians to take back land if a frontline disappears.

Just think of Napoleon's retreat from Russia, his losses were so high that Russian advance after that was easy. Regardless of logistics

If Russian army crumbles, retreats or mass surrenders and decides for a civil war. Ukraine will be able to advance if it wishes, without having to fire bullets.

That is the reason why I think Ukraine does not focus on similar type logistics.

Bobko
22 Nov 2023  #4436

@Mr Grunwald

Besides Jon's fantasies about 2M able bodied men sitting somewhere along the sidelines, it is Ukraine that has a crippling manpower issue.

Google "Ukraine enlistment", and see for yourself the plethora of articles about the tens of thousands of Ukrainians swimming and walking across the borders to escape conscription.

Ukrainian senior officers are saying that most frontline units are 20-40% below authorized strength.

Women are beginning to show up among the dead in the trenches.

Ukraine's MoD has removed AIDS, chronic tuberculosis, and light forms of mental retardation from the list of medical exceptions to mobilization (and a dozen other categories).

Ukraine is asking allies to extradite Ukrainian men living in their countries.

Russia, on the other hand, is calling up something like 1,100 men daily. This is enough not only to replenish battered units, but even to form reserves - as you can see now on the Avdeevka and Kupyansk directions.

Alien
22 Nov 2023  #4437

Ukrainians swimming and walking across the borders to escape conscription.

Well, "beat the russians" is such a catchy slogan that young people from all over the world join Ukraine in this war. There will never be a shortage of them.

Bobko
22 Nov 2023  #4438

young people from all over the world join Ukraine in this war

You are a funny guy, Alien.

The peak for foreign romantics coming to Ukraine, came around April or May last year. Since then, numbers have dropped.

Events like the cruise missile bombing of the training grounds in Yavoriv had a strong sobering effect on many people.

More broadly, the Russo-Ukrainian war is not a place where you can do glamorous war tourism. In some sectors of the front, life expectancy for new arrivals is around 5-10 days.

5-10 days is not enough time to shoot enough quality Instagram videos, to show for the rest of your life in some dirty bar in Leeds.

Alien
22 Nov 2023  #4439

More broadly, the Russo-Ukrainian war is not a place where you can do glamorous war tourism.

The Ukrainians do not provide any data. The russians say they have killed 4,200 mercenaries since the beginning of the war. The real number will be much lower. Probably 1-2 mercenaries die a day, and 10 new ones take their place. Mercenaries won't win this war, but they know how not to lose it.

mafketis
22 Nov 2023  #4440

the Russo-Ukrainian war is not a place where you can do glamorous war tourism

Just ask Polina Menshih.... a russian singer who supported killing Ukrainians so much that she came to perform for the russian murderers in Donetsk...
the Ukrainians sent a rather harsh review....

twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1727023280861888535

Meanwhile russia searches for its place in the sun by killing more civilians and destroying more of their homes...

twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1727354675815739395


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