I swear, I'm not posting this with any intention to troll anyone. Just an honest observation from someone who's been watching this for as long as any of you...
It seems as though the entire world - English language mainstream news outlets, Twitter, Ukrainian media, assorted Telegram channels - have realized in the past 48 hrs that Ukraine is in dire straits.
Frankly, it's a little eerie. Almost makes me think I'm immersed in some world of bots, because with normal human communities consensus never solidifies so rapidly.
However, if these are actually the organic sentiments of real people - then I have a few theories about how we got here. My main one is this:
1) People tended to exaggerate how much we knew about the war from videos on social media and didn't honestly acknowledge uncertainty.
However, nearly as important, has been how:
2) The fact that Ukraine systematically overinflated expectations. Instead of conditioning their allies to prepare for the long haul, and without any prodding from anyone whatsoever, Kiev kept insisting this thing can have a rapid denouement.
Of slightly lesser importance, also this:
3) Everyone and their mother (well, not everyone), made the wrong conclusions from how Kharkov and Kherson were retaken last Fall. Further back in time, nearly everyone misunderstood the retreat from Kiev and Sumy, for what it was.
Bottom line: don't try forming an accurate analysis of a complex conflict based on a trickle of social media content heavily manipulated by both sides.