Bobko
7 Feb 2025 #1021
the offensive into Kursk has been very successful from an Ukrainian point of view.
From a Ukrainian point of view, many things may appear differently, but we should try to stay anchored in reality and react to actual facts.
1) It's fairly obvious that the Ukrainians expected greater results from committing their most elite formations to such an operation. Among others, they pulled in the 80th, 82nd, and 95th Air Assault Brigades - the best units Ukraine has (former VDV). There was also the famous 47th mechanized brigade, which is famous for two reasons - they have Abrams tanks, and a lot of their guys blew up on mines during the 2023 Summer Offensive. Practically all of Ukraine's SSO special operations forces were employed in Kursk.
2) All these elite units managed to seize, was a single town (Sudzha - population 6,000), and a string of villages around it. In the early days of the offensive it was clear that the Ukrainians had much more ambitious goals in mind. If not the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, then at least some more sizeable settlements, along more defensible terrain.
3) In addition to failing at further exploiting the initiative they enjoyed at the start of the operation, they failed to force the rotation of significant Russian forces from the Donbass.
4) While all these Rambos and Terminators were sent to Kursk, their poor counterparts from Territorial Defense Brigades and the Ukrainian National Guard were left to hold a 1,000 KM long front in the Southeast.
5) Understand, TDF units rarely have any armor. They're always shortchanged on artillery. They get the lowest quality men, after everyone else cherry picked the best ones. National Guard formations are only slightly better equipped. Nonetheless, the burden of resisting last year's Russian offensive fell on these guys shoulders, because all the best guys were busy taking photos outside a supermarket in Kursk. This is why Ukraine lost more than 100 settlements in a span of a few months, last fall.
Defenders of Kursk also like to talk about Pokrovsk, how it still stands. But these people do not pay attention to the maps. After the offensive stopped outside the gates of Pokrovsk, it took a sharp turn south and then West. Pokrovsk is now at risk of being flanked from its rear. Its satellite town of Selidovo has fallen, largely without a fight, and Mirnograd is being flanked as well.