Ukraine has been pushed out of Russia and is not only running out of men, but running out of time
Ukraine is very likely going to win. Russia and Russia' enjoyers have always claimed Russia is winning, and Russia's theory of victory involves convincing the rest of the world that Russian victory is inevitable.
If the US were fully committed to supporting Ukraine, at least to the levels they were during the Biden administration, then Ukrainian victory would be almost certain. Trump's retarded stances are the reason Ukraine's chances have been downgraded from almost certain to very likely.
And to define Ukrainian victory, I am talking about their positions of:
1.) Effective security guarantees for Ukraine that will prevent further Russian aggression.
2.) Control of territory being roughly around the current lines. No significant territory conceded to Russia in a peace agreement.
3.) Not acknowledging any formal Russian ownership of occupied Ukrainian territory. This is important for continuing Ukrainian efforts to regain those territories in the future via political and economic pressure.
The war is still primarily attritional and is basically a stalemate in terms of territory control. Russian advances are still minuscule despite Russian and Russia western supporters efforts to blow them out of proportion. Russian advances have no ability to force a surrender. Sadly, attrition is the determining factor for how the war will end, which is why it has been a long war and will not be ending in the immediate future.
But Russia's offensive efforts come at immense cost in terms of Russian manpower, time, and military equipment. Russia's ability to bear those costs are very likely to run out before Ukraine's ability to defend against them.
And Russia cannot currently afford to back off some and slow down the offensive pace to one they can sustain for longer, because them slowing down the pace will allow Ukraine to better counter-attack and otherwise contest the initiative. Which gravely threatens the extremely important "inevitable Russian victory" narrative. Russia's effort to convince the US and others to not support Ukraine are critical to Russia's theory of victory as the level of support Ukraine receives is a critical factor in how long Ukraine can sustain their war effort.