Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 29

So r*SSia is shelling Poland now, just after President Zelenskyy had a meeting in Lublin.

It was a bad night in Kyiv too. The first 3 or 4 ballistic missiles exploded before the air raid alarm even sounded. About 1 am. Louder and larger than usual. The alarms kept going off all night.

Not enough to trigger Article 5 however Donald Tusk is right to take the missile fired at Poland very seriously. This time a field, next time maybe infrastructture. Putler is getting more and more desperate. Tusk is handling this correctly.
x.com/donaldtusk/status/2082756299473691111?s=20

And meanwhile, r*SSia has just had to sell half its gold reserve, 44 tonnes.

Problem is those gold reserves exist only on paper - many ounces have been chipped away to Cyprus and Liechtenstein over the years

When Putler goes I hope the NNs enjoy another few years of Yelcin style barter economy because anything not nailed down will be stolen in the last desperate moments

Does Poland really want to get directly involved in the war? Ukrainians would love it, of course.

Selfish b@sterds just thinking of themselves.... they should just shut up and deal with the incoming missiles while everybody congratulates themselves for being on their side.

It's involved already.

And last night's missile fired into Poland won't lessen that.

Russia is fvcked part 222.And Russia's incompetance could lead to outright war with NATO.
The drones that flew over Romania prompted a NATO response.Are the Russians THAT stupid?I am afraid that they are....

I will definitely volunteer for the Stormtroopers, I hope you guys won't chicken out in front of the Ruskies and will follow my lead.

I am pretty sure you'll do no such thing.

Poles love to give it the big bollocks in hypothetical scenarios, due to the incredible nationalist hot air the entire nation is inflated with ('we are so proud that we will protect beautiful nation eternally with unlimited numbers of Polish lives'), but the last time you were invaded, you were conquered in a month.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have lasted almost half a decade.

There is a reason why we were repeatedly invaded from all sides through our entire history, Poland is not very rational or reasonable nation. You can either kick a Pole in the teeth, or pay him (like the west very cleverly decided to do), otherwise a Pole will probably do an opposite of what you're asking/pressuring him to do.

Mostly flat and in a territory between Empires. Poles will always survive though.

2 years today that the North Nigerians launched their assault on Pokrovsk. In that time they have moved 3km closer to the town center. They have claimed to capture it 3x (usually before some talks with the gullible Witkoff)

More than 30.000 North Nigerians have died, for nothing, and circa 100.000 injured (including those run over or shot by their drunk comrades)

Hard to think of a more senseless assault since WW1.

Ukraine is fvked Part 1

simplicius76.substack.com/p/disastrous-end-to-zelenskys-40-day

Another fake poster who thinks his username is funny....I'm on part 222.... you have a very long way to go to catch me up.... and you never will, because there is very little news about the war going well for Russia!

Russia is fvcked part 223.....Ukraine continues to hit important Russian targets, whilst the Russian army can no longer advance, all the Russians can do is fire missiles and drones at Ukraine, with little effect.



Russia is fvcked part 224.

It's banging like a sh1thouse door right now in Kyiv. Yet tomorrow it'll be back to normal. The orcs don't realise that the more they do it, the less it works. People are used to it.

And the revenge for this will be the rest of the wildberries warehouses.

Another Wildnerry in flames now - they are just a few days from going out of business

When they are done it will be time to start drone attacks on truck and bus depots - the North Nigerians can get used to empty shelves and walking to work

Amazing. Barely a week as a tourist in Kyiv and you're already delivering "people are used to it" stories like a hardened war correspondent who's been there since 2022. You're so brave!

Mind you, according to Milospammer's YouTube dross, Russia has already been finished about 700 times.

So that "banging like a sh1thouse door" you're dramatically recounting obviously wasn't an air raid.

It was the farcical spectacle of you barricading yourself inside a public toilet stall, desperately holding the lock while local police violently tore the door off its hinges.

They had received complaints about you loitering around the urinals and basins all day - an activity 'men of your persuasion' are routinely arrested for.

Imagine the absolute circus of your undignified extraction - splinters flying, burly police orders barked in a language completely alien to you, your panicked shrills echoing in reply over your pending arrest - while a voiceover calmly asks:

Hey pig.

Yeah, you!

Piggy, pig, pig, pig, pig, pig, pig, pig, pig.

Whatcha gonna do?

Today marked the official end of Vladimir Zelensky's "40 Day Campaign", which was intended to coerce Russia into making a deal.

His chief of staff, wonder boy Kirill Budanov, while responding to journalists yesterday said "let's not focus too much on timelines"....

Still, we have to take stock of the results so far.

For Ukraine:

1) The disabling of a meaningful part of Russia's refining capacity, at least for 2-6 months. In the case of some facilities, for 6-12 months or more.

2) The complete shutdown of shipborne traffic out of the ports of the Azov Sea.

3) Significant damage to Wildberries (Russia's Amazon) logistical centers.

For Russia:

1) Complete shutdown of all exports out of ports in the Greater Odessa area - resulting in daily losses of approximately $70M for the state budget.

2) Destruction of Wildberries-equivalent businesses in Ukraine (Rozetka, ATB, Silpo).

3) Destruction of multiple arms manufacturing complexes in Kiev and other cities.

4) Destruction of 300+ gas stations in Kharkov, Poltava, and Dnepr Oblasts. In some places, the stretch of road without gas stations is 120+ km.

-//-

In result, we had Zelensky yesterday proposing a new aerial ceasefire, a new agreement to avoid strikes on energy infrastructure.

Also he said he is ready to meet with Kushner and Witkoff at any time, and is open to direct talks with Putin whenever practicable.

-//-

Ukraine utterly failed in its 40 day campaign to bring Russia to its knees. Instead, it appears more and more that it was Ukraine that suffered irreparably.

Quite unrealistic, if that was indeed its aim. Bringing Russia to its knees is a much more difficult task than it often seems.

One way or another, it's time for everyone to realize that we should stop this madness. This year, Poland will spend 5% of its GDP on defence - roughly 22% of the central government's budget expenditures. This level of militarization will place a significant burden on the economy and adversely affect public services such as health care, education, and infrastructure.

Perhaps it is time to give diplomacy a serious chance and realistically assess the claims, needs, and concerns of all sides involved in the conflict. Russians are not irrational - they can be negotiated with and we can coexist peacefully.

For a start, from the Polish side, we should give up the preposterous idea of building a permanent American military base in Poland. It would be an obvious provocation towards Russia and would go against the spirit of 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act which said that there will be no additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces in NATO countries bordering Russia.

Let's make this one gesture of good will, and perhaps also open a small trans-border movement of people with Крулевец region, and let's see what happens.

#DiplomacyBeforeMilitarization #GivePeaceaChance #SchoolsAndHospitalsNotTanks

You certainly can't do it with drones, as Ukraine had hoped.

To do serious and consistent damage, you need at least ballistics - of which Ukraine has practically none. Even then... Ukraine itself still stands. Why would they assume that Russia has a much lower threshold for pain, than themselves?

After the successes in the initial week or two of strikes (aided by French and US intelligence on gaps in Russia's air defense network), Russia deployed more and more effective countermeasures. Mobile air defense units, jamming, improvements to existing systems (e.g. Pantsir is now considered a very effective system).

A very high percentage of UKR drone attacks are now being intercepted.

Meanwhile, Russia is hammering UKR with ballistic missiles, with total impunity. In the last two rounds of strikes against Kiev and other major cities, the Ukrainians intercepted only 1 (!!!) missile out of the approx. 70 or so launched.

God knows that Ukraine is desperate to get the diplomatic track reactivated.

But they are fools...

Months ago, Zelensky refused to voluntarily vacate the Donbass and end the war. Instead he insisted on a freezing along the current lines.

Yesterday - he again reiterated he is ready to stop the war "along current lines".

Problem for Zelensky - Russia had rejected the previous offer, and after he spent more than a month attacking Russian infrastructure, Russia also withdrew the proposal to end the war with a handover of the Donbass.

Now Russia has communicated that it will not return any of the occupied land in other Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkov) - even if Ukraine agrees to cede the Donbass.

-//-

The Europeans own this diplomatic disaster.

They encouraged Zelensky, and cheered him on during these 40 days.

Finland's Stubb, and Poland's Sikorsky argued that "Ukraine was potentially in its best position since 2022".

The result - now the war won't end, even after the Ukrainians lost the entire Donbass (some tens of thousands of casualties, and perhaps a year later).

Now Ukraine will likely forever lose some additional hundreds of kilometers along its borders with Russia in Kharkov and Sumy Oblast.

Now Ukraine is once again completely landlocked, and has a nearly completely destroyed electrical grid.

At the same time - Zelensky is facing the worst political crisis of his presidency, as tens of thousands gather daily to protest his sacking of the popular Minister of Defense Fedorov. The manpower situation is catastrophic, and the General Staff has been gutted.

His former Commander in Chief, Zaluzhny (now ambassador to the UK), said this week that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the European part of NATO is not even at "half" the level of capability of the Russian army.

-//-

Zelensky is an idiot, and the Europeans prodding him along are even bigger retards.

Parrotting the Kremlin's official line still? Nobody believes it.

And meanwhile the queues for petrol grow, more 'generals' fall out of windows and Putler has to try yet another 'mass mobilisation'. Soon there'll be nobody left there.

Where is Putler, by the way?


One reason the free world has to make sure they're well-supplied with weapons.


Hello Cherry Pie. Why not use your own name?

And BTW, a couple of months and certainly not a tourist.


Voyeuristic hipsters with camcorders, most of them. Better than putting cheese on pizzas like you though.

.... yet still Russia has approx 145 million people living within its borders.

Our little Ukrainian brothers have only 25-28 million left in their country.

It is Ukraine which pumps out daily videos of people being grabbed in the street, at the gym, at the supermarket - and Shanghaied into assault units.

It's Ukraine which has daily electrical outages and collapsing industry (agricultural exports dead, iron ore and steel - dead).

It's Ukraine which has a gaping hole in its state budget, which even mammoth EU subsidies cannot cover - necessitating painful cuts to already underfunded ministries.

It's Zelensky that is fighting for his political life, while Putin is preparing for yet another victory in this fall's elections.

-//-

Hope you Europeans managed to enjoy yourselves enough, while prodding an entire country to rush headlong towards its own destruction.

You forgot to mention the successful advance of 300 meters towards Pokrovsk and the downing of an advanced fighter jet over North Lagos (..checks notes and realises that was some North Nigerian piece of crap)

All the NNs have done is murder a few hundred civilians

Putler was offered a one to one meeting in Konstaniniivka which he claims the NNs control. What do you think his answer was ?

He is afraid that once the Ukrainian army vacates the defensive lines, the entire country will become vulnerable to swift invasion, and it is a valid concern.

Having said that, on the one hand, there is little point in Ukraine insisting on keeping its великодержавні borders which have nothing to do with ethnic Ukrainian lands, but on the other hand redrawing the borders along ethnic lines in 21st century Europe... I don't know if it's a great idea.


Well, the drone campaign did have its effect and the Americans seem(ed) to be quite impressed by it. That would seem to indeed strengthen the Ukrainian position before the potential peace talks.


That is a highly debatable statement by Zaluzhny, but let's hope we will never have to find out whether he was right.


I can't help but feel that mental retardation has been more or less equally distributed among all the countries involved in the conflict, Poland included. The only thing left now is the return to wise and careful diplomacy. Otherwise... well, I don't want to end this sentence.

I wanna read what you are reading!

In the real world, Pokrovsk and Mirnograd were captured half a year ago, and now Russian servicemen are creeping up to the borders of Dobropilya, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk.

Konstantinovka is fully captured. Stepnogorsk is being taken back.

Ukrainian counterattacks in the Lyman and Kupyansk areas have been beat back.

The AFU is facing the threat of encirclement in the Belyi Kolodetz pocket in eastern Kharkov oblast.

They are digging new fortifications in Chernobyl and Chernigov, to defend against a potential attack from the North, for the first time since 2022.

Why would they do that?


Indeed...

r*SSians lie pathologically. Bobko seems reasonably intelligent; he surely doesn't think that people swallow that crap.


And still does. And will continue to do so.

There were some highly publicized results of recent training exercises involving Ukrainian units and their NATO counterparts.

From what I can understand, the Ukrainians wiped the ground with NATO formations within several hours of the start.

Here's an article from a leading American defense publication (staffed almost entirely by former American military officers):

warontherocks.com/10-ukrainians-humbled-two-nato-battalions-when-will-nato-wake-up/

Headline: "Ten Ukrainians Humbled Two NATO Batallions - When will NATO Wake Up?"

If ten Ukrainians can stop half of a NATO brigade, and yet somehow Ukraine is constantly being pushed back in the Donbass - it should give you some idea of what a NATO/Russia fight would look like.

NATO is living in the past century, while Ukraine and Russia are daily rewriting the rules of modern war.

As a result of peace negotiations.


One example of Poland's slight mental retardation in recent months: I wonder what does an average Russian (especially one in Królewiec) think when he reads that Poland is creating a division able to quickly take Kaliningrad Oblast? Or that Poland has new weapons in our missile arsenal destined specifically for the capability of reaching Moscow? And it's not written by some idiots on an internet board but in the most respected daily newspaper (Rzeczpospolita) and a very popular weekly (Do Rzeczy). What's the point? Russian разведка knows what we have and that we're ready to use it anyway; so why scare the general population and feed the propagandists on the other side? This, I admit, is mental retardation.


True. We have been preparing for an old-type of war and we are indeed somewhat behind with the latest developments in modern battlefield technology. I wouldn't, however, draw any far-reaching conclusions based on this fact. If Ukraine could adapt to the modern battlefield conditions, then so can Poland, Finland, Germany and other NATO countries. In the beginning we would suffer but we'd adjust as quickly as Ukraine but with immeasurably higher population and military/economic potential. If I were a Russian strategist, I would be rather reluctant to draw and certainly to execute any plans of invading the European NATO countries.

I think the war rhetoric music on both sides has to be brought down by at least one tone (maybe even two). I know that military marches are best played loud but maybe, just maybe, we should go easy on the volume this time, for a change.

The lessons learned by Ukraine and Russia are written in blood.

Both had to undergo immensely painful reformation, unlearning decades of doctrine to adapt to this new, monstrous form of warfare.

Besides institutional knowledge accumulation, both have tens of thousands of trained servicemen who have invaluable practical experience of this new type of war.

-//-

If Russia does not declare some maximalist, far reaching goals which could shake Europe out of its slumber - but instead declares some more typical "hybrid" operation (for example to cut off the land connection between the Baltics and the rest of Europe), then the facts on the ground may materialize faster than European ability to adapt.

Given that since he became their dictator, Putler has signed 27 peace treaties and non-aggression pacts and has broken every single one, that's a pretty big no, isn't it...

All Putler has to do is withdraw his orcs. r*SSia is big enough already without invading yet more neighbours.