Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades

Here is my executive summary: Europe, it's all yours. You have all you need to bring it home.

The deal is long term, but it is not a static pricing model. It gets indexed depending on several factors. Russia's cost of extraction net of levies by the state is around $30-35 (approximately twice the cost of Saudi Arabia). If prices stay at present levels, and the pricing model on the China Russia pipeline gets updated in the next calendar period - it should be ok.

Regarding India. They have been entering the equity of each other's large energy entities. India's trying to go as far upstream as Putin let's them, and Russia wants to go downstream as far as Modi let's him (search for news on Russian investment in Indian Ocean refinery). The actual physical movement of commodities is, as you said, modest. However, the trend is for this to increase.

I don't understand how unilaterally cutting production can "sting" russia if it cannot collect this money anyway through stupid Western self sanctioning? The loopholes were left open, but for some reason no one wants to use them. I did hear Scholz complain, very lightly, about this. Maybe if others speak up - Shell, Exxon, Total will feel more comfortable resuming purchases, but at this moment I think they have decided that Russian oil is more trouble than it's worth. Primarily because of the banking sanctions. Shell did buy a 100,000 ton shipment last Friday, at a -$28 discount to Brent, and then got chastised for it by the entire Western corporate community.

I see.


I'm assuming that's a big 'if'.


Question is: will the trend continue. I'd be shocked if Modi isn't getting some type of western overture, right now. And, as a self-respecting Indian, he'll handle it shrewdly and to his greatest benefit.


That's the sting; money ain't being collected. How long can Putin endure that?

The question I'm most interested in is how, or when, does all of this effect the oligarchs? And, do they start getting antsy? I doubt anyone can answer that sufficiently, except the oligarchs themselves. But, an intersting set of questions, nonetheless.[

It is costing the American people $250 Million Per Day just for the increase in gas prices in our country not to mention all the other inflation.

Hunting ? No kidding, the deer herd in my neighbor is dwindling fast and deer season closed two months ago.
I had venison chili and smashed potatoes for dinner while I watch the news in Poland about the Polish people taking in the refugees.
It shows them going to the country where the people are the poorest.
Bless the Polish people's sacrifices and generosity.
A true Christian Nation.

I think the feelings of Russian oligarchs are somewhere between the 50th and 100th place in Putin's list of priorities. He came in as an enforcer of the state in the early 2000s. The first thing he did was break the oligarch's back. Berezovsky and Gusinsky first, because of their prize media assets, and then on to Khodorkovsky and the rest. Current Russian billionaires cannot be called oligarchs, because they have lost the most important thing that qualifies one as an oligarch - the ability to influence the state.

Putin hated them for years, because they removed their children and their wealth out of his reach. To Knightsbridge, to the Upper East Side, and so on. Now the West is giving him his dream of twenty years - forcing the oligarchs back into his painful embrace. If the Russophobia begins to extend to all Russian nationals, then Putin will be simply over the moon. A reverse exodus of Russians from the West to Russia is something that even six months ago was impossible to imagine.

Bottom line: West fundamentally misunderstands the innner workings of the Russian state. These are not oligarchs, but mere nominal holders of wealth. If a command comes down the Administration in the Kremlin they will step aside without making even a squeak. Look at Yevtushenko and Gutseriev.

Interesting.

And, I'd put myself in the category of not understanding the inner workings of Russia.

But, I wouldn't be so sure even nominal holders of wealth--massive wealth, I may add--are as weak and timid as one may assume, especially when that wealth is being threatened across the board. Those presumed timid and weaker individuals may form a cabal.

At that point being in 50th to 100th place of priorities puts Putin in the more vulnerable position.


Man, I completely agree! It validates his position of Russia v The World. The opera singer being dismissed from the NY Met, Russian cats being kicked out of a cat competition, calls for Russian athletes to be banned--all counter-productive for the West, but delicious to Vlad.

This where Putin has an advantage, IMO, he doesn't need nor does he operate within a "woke" or politically correct environment. Western leaders have to traverse a landscape filled with these absurd mines.

Western insanity on display. Right along with "men can get pregnant".

Russian cats disqualified from a competition isn't insane--it's just nonsense.


Now, that is insanity.

But remember - these are Russo-Asian savages, Mongols, the Horde. They are less than people, but more wild animals. To be tamed, or to be liquidated.

In fact, Russians are the only people in the world which are safe to hate by all peoples. No need to fear the stigma of racism, or xenophobia.

Another good comment from dailymail.com:

Scariest thing is Biden would welcome WWIII as a distraction from him being the disaster


I am so sick of it here that it often leaves me speechless. When I see that blind, mindless hate I remind them that it was the USSR that liberated Poland - just to watch them go apesh*it from that "liberated". Yes, a-holes, Poland was liberated by the Soviets. The evil ones were Polish collaborators at UB.

@Bobko

With a helluva victim complex. :)

@Novichok

But, Novi, you bend the sh!t out of history (and analogies)--no offense. What's the Polish saying, "WWII, the war we lost twice."

Update on the Special Operation:

youtu.be/_i229m5f7DE

7.3.2022 Russian Gains

youtu.be/zM_V9SerfaY

8.3.2022 Value of Life

Me removing the ungodly disgusting crud underneath my big toe's toenail is a special operation.

Moving an army into a sovereign nation while blowing up stuff while in said sovereign nation is a war.

I mean, we can disagree about whether it's justified, wise, denazifying, etc. like gentlemen all day long, but let's, at least, call it what it is: a fecking war!

No for Coca Cola, yes for Pepsi.

Pentagon: Polish proposal is unacceptable

Polish government proposed to leave all Polish Mig-29s immediately and for free at the US disposal in the NATO base in Ramstein. Pentagon's spokesman, John Kirby, said that this raises serious concerns for the entire NATO and that giving planes to Ukraine has to be entirely sovereign Polish move...



wydarzenia.interia.pl/raporty/raport-ukraina-rosja/aktualnosci/news-propozycja-polski-ws-mig-ow-pentagon-odpowiada,nId,5880030

... Polish PM, Mateusz Morawiecki, said that any decision of passing offensive weapons to Ukraine has to be made on NATO level. Poland cannot make such a decision alone as we are not a side in Russian-Ukrainian war.

What-did-I-tell-you?

So, I will write it as elegantly as possible:

Americans want to make tender love to us in every possible orifice. Luckily, Morawiecki has a headache and is not in the mood.

P.S. If anyone wishes to call me a "pro-Putin troll", they can go make tender love to themselves.

Disasemble and haul in parts like stolen cars over the border.

It's still passing on offensive weapons. Anti-tank launchers are for anti-tank defence; Stingers are for air-defence, but fighter planes are an offensive weapon, and the US wants us to make this decision entirely alone. We would be exposing ourselves to a nuclear strike (read Russian war doctrine), and they want to put this entirely on us. Frankly, ridiculous.

This is what we say publicly. polish migs are already flying over ukr, with polish or ukr pilots who knows? You think poland does not have more migs that are officially on the register?

@GefreiterKania

I think it's the American way of making sure those planes don't get delivered to Ukraine.

Most probably the right decision, even though it's frustrating. Warplanes taking off from a NATO state means NATO is an attacking participant in war. Do we want that?

Does not mean that the migs will be delivered unofficially?

@amiga500

I'd think that'd mean those planes would be delivering an attack on Russia originating from Poland, which is an act of war.

Honestly I am very impressed by you. It is sufficient to go back a few pages in this thread to see that just recently you were a lone voice among your compatriots.

If anyone is interested, here is the final response on top of what Nuland had said earlier: defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2960180/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-on-security-assistance-to-uk/

Quite frankly, it is hilarious how transparently the US was trying to throw Poland in front of the bus.

Still feeling great about that Article V guarantee?

of course poland will be in front of the bus, that is what our tribe does. those migs will reach ukr. anyway why is there such a wooha about migs when the west is delivering so many lethal top quality weapons to ukr?

Most people do not boast about their mental deficiencies.

Hey idiot, it's called stubborn romanticism, one of the traits of our tribe.

Technically he didn't want to kill people, he wanted to bring them to their senses (from his point of view).

But once they rejected his offer to become serfs in his feudal Tsardom... and wounded his prickly pride.... yeah, now he just wants to kill as many Ukrainians as he can.

I think whatever medication they have him on for the Parkinsons and cancer have driven him quite mad and one of the great weaknesses of the Russian Tsardom is a lcak of mechanisms for peaceful, non-violent transfer of power.

@johnny reb
Maybe my thoughts on walking and cutting demand are un American, but they are simple and they work. Not enough money, get another job. Gas too expensive, public transportation or walk. Simple and effective.

As for the comments on the Russian economy, I find it hilarious to read the comments talking about adjusted national income levels and currency values. The Ruble has never been and will never be anything close to .50 on the dollar. A rebound in currency value only means a small increase in purchasing power at the new pricing standards, it does not mean that suddenly a Russian can go buy something for less money.

When there are no imported goods to purchase, then the black market, or stolen good market values sky rocket. Say like in the 1980's when a paid of Levi's on the black market in Moscow was $100 or more and we could buy them in the USA for about $12 at the time. A new Samsung phone in Russia next month will go from a $1000 value to about $3000 or more. With a collapsed ruble you will need a brinks truck to buy one, with a rebound ruble only an F-150.

As for you pro Putin Co**suckers, not one of you has any real skin in the game. You are either in Russia of the US. Some of you should simply be shot if found. I forget who wrote the dumb comment about Dunkirk, but clearly you don't know your history. Hitler didnt allow anyone off that beach, he was killing other Brits in a diversion and sacrificial move made by the Brits that bought time for the people on the beaches, who were still facing planes gunning them down.

Its time for Russia to be destroyed. Period. There wont be any nukes. His generals will turn on him and kill him. This is just what Russia does. It is a paranoid wild street dog culture. Oh its such discrimination I know. And I don't care. It's ok we all don't want turd world invasions from the middle east, but we are supposed to accept a turd world invasion from Russia? Give me a break. Happy gulag, $hi* sandwiches on sale in Red Square, 2 million rubles and you get a free goat milk shake if you buy two.

Exactly. Poland is already taking a huge risk by becoming a logistical hub to transport German, British etc. defensive weapons, and now they want us to make a decision to deliver offensive weapons on our own? Because they say NATO is not a side in this conflict? Well, Poland isn't a side either.


Either they think we are complete and utter idiots or it's like Anti is saying, they are simply making the plane transfer impossible without stating the fact directy. I really hope it's the latter.

I'm wondering about that too...


So? Russia has been providing all kinds of weaponry to the separatist republics in Eastern Ukraine for all this time, including tanks (which are offensive "weapons"):

rferl.org/a/russia-separatists-advanced-weaponry/31681767.html

Russia has been denying this, of course, but couldn't NATO simply do the same - provide Ukraine with all kinds of weapons quietly and discretely and deny everything with a smile on their face, like Russia has been doing it all this time? ;)


Not really:


I've got to admit that it is embarrassing to watch how two supposed allies (USA and Poland) are throwing at each other those jets like a hot potato... A NATO neighbour has been invaded by Russia, Ukraine is fighting bravely for it's independence, Ukrainians are dying, their cities are being destroyed... NATO, or at least a group of NATO countries with the US and Germany in the lead, should get a grip and decide something about those jets... Why the US and Germany in the lead, imho? Because Poland doesn't mean anything against Russia - it's the US (militarily and politically) and Germany (economically and politically) that matter...

yep, i posted a pommy gov rationing video from ww2, plenty more from usa on youtube. the americans can put up with hardship. war bonds and rationing and it all. only reason stalin survived was due to massive support from USA, they don't have that now. theyre fuc*ed.