Have the Russians finally attacked? Or maybe they realise that:
- Ukrainian soldiers are better trained (they have been training for years according to NATO standards) and better motivated to fight - they will be defending their homeland against foreign aggression;
- Russia has very small operational reserves, any losses will be extremely difficult to replace;
- Ukrainian army is 225 thousand soldiers (160 thousand in land forces alone plus 20 thousand airborne and special forces), so Russia doesn't have necessary advantage (they only gathered 130 thousand for the attack);
- besides the professional army Ukraine has 25 brigades of territorial defense (100 thousand soldiers and growing), many of them with battle experience, and 42 thousand well-armed Border Guards;
- Ukraine has strong panzer forces and their infantry is equipped with FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank launchers, so life will be very painful (and short) for Russian tankists, if Putin orders the attack;
- Ukrainian infantry is better armed and knows the territory better, so in urban fighting Russian infantry will suffer very high losses;
- Ukraine has over 40-million citizens - even if somehow Russian army defeats Ukrainians (highly unlikely), there is no way they will be able to occupy the country this size and deal with partisan forces supported by NATO;
- The sanctions that would hit Russia would be unheard of before - full economic ban, including SWIFT block. The EU is already preparing for gas shortages which means that high-level decisions have already been made in case of Russian invasion.
Of course, if I know that, it means that Putin knows that as well. Hence, there will be no invasion. He had a very weak hand of cards, so he decided to bluff. Luckily his bluff was called, and now he is desperately looking for a way to escape from this mess with face. There will be no war. :)