Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades

There was much less poetic note about place of economics in current crisis.But if Germany wish to try to compete with Russia in downshifting technologies, we can double the bet. Any limitations create stymulus for internal manufacture in Russia and loss of market for Germany, so in a long run it will be win for Russia, and in a short run we can absorb some losses. Concerning financial services - activity will be shifted to Asia, Chinese bankers will be happy to offer something in RMB.

Aaaah... you should be rather careful with the Chinese. You play chess, but they play 圍棋, which is a more complicated and more ancient game.

Ditto! :)

Loss of market (and energy) for Germany will mean longterm internal stimulus and most important a change of energy resources....but if Russia loses important customers for its main export and income....well.....


Not to mention China might become the next pariah....meaning the West at last ending that damned dependence which developed during the last decades during globalization....you know internal stimulus for the western markets....we will get our industry and jobs back! :)

Imagine Europe and the US no longer dependent on russian energy and chinese cheap labour....YES! :)

:)

And all this because dyadya Vlad wanted to flex some muscles. Brilliant.

As I said....Putin might have miscalculated this time....this could be the one step to far!

Europe has nothing to do with drawing lines "somewhere". People should be able to decide what they want, without risk to have their knee shot after fail to respond to drunk banderist "glory to...".

Putin spend a hour yesterday to tell history of ukrainian statehood, and even offered help in "decommunisation". Borders as it was in 1654 cannot be disputed, the rest is in disputable.

Sounds abit like Hitler explaining Czechoslovakia...and Danzig....and Silesia....

Was not worth it in the end, believe me!

Definitely.

@Velund

This "podarki russkich carej" starting from 1654 doesn't seem very historically acurate as most of those lands belonged to 1st Rzeczpospolita until late 18th century. So, perhaps Polish lands should be restored to 1654 borders (or, even better, 1612)? Do you now see why this sort of nonsense cannot be basis of any sane foreign policies in 21st century Europe?

If anyone is interested here is part of the transcript of Putin's speech last night.

en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828

Return historical German lands to Germany, then you can pretend to historical Polish lands. For now talks is about historical Russian lands, that Lenin forcefully transferred to newly created ukrainian state in 1922. It has nothing to do with historical Getmanschina that was really inhabited by people "of cossack blood" as mentioned in ukrainian anthem.

Why? Maybe they should return more lands to us. Have you seen the maps of Western Slavdom about 7th century? Half of Germany are old Slavic lands :)


I want nothing of the sort. I was merely trying to show you that basing current foreign policies on historical maps is nothing short of idiocy.

I think it becomes clear how absurd Putins' claims are if you put them into the mouth of other politicians. Imagine Macron saying that French borders should reflect those of the First French Empire. Or the Mongolians wanting to get their Empire back. Or thr Italian president calling the end of the Roman Empire the biggest geopolitical catastrophy since the birth of Jesus Christ as one comedian put it.

Putin now rules alone over 20 years....I guess he has no sane, rational people in his circle left who dare to tell him the truth....he jails and/or kills every opposition...only bootlickers like Lavrov left....he might have lost it!

@Tacitus

Exactly! :) For some reason the world treats Putin like a retarded child and only smiles when he talks nonsense that would disqualify a politician in any other country.

@Velund

Kiev founded 882.

Moscow founded 1147.

Which came first?

The chicken or the egg?

The Ukrainian or The Russian?

Or are Ukrainians the original Russians?

Recent territorial situation was tolerated for many years, while there was no oppression of non-Ukrainians from nationalists in power. But now process is started and Hungary should be prepared to get their secceded former compatriots back as well.

Poland can try to make monoiethnic state (if Israel will allow and help ;) ), but ukraine have no such luxury in their present borders.


Kiev is "Mother of Russian cities", it has nothing to do with "ukrainism". Ukraine historical core is current two oblasts that was historical Getmanschina, plus former austro-hungarian serfs in the west, that got their "prophets" from austro-hungarian intelligence services.

@Velund
I am now convinced the Kremlin has an equal opportunity employment policy for reta**s and you got the job.

Russia is going to feel a financial pain like never before. The ruble? May as well be toilet paper now. Russian gas? Worthless, keep filling your storage tanks with no one to buy it. Oil? Worthless, no customers with dollars for you. Vodka, caviar, and Russian models all on sale now in Poland. Fresh fruit and vegetables imported from EU, vanished over night.

Ukraine will survive. Smaller in the end, but they will survive, and they will be fast tracked into the EU and NATO when its over. Putin way over played his hand. The only good end to this is a bullet in his head.

Thanks, Milo.


He basically denies Ukraine the right to independent existence. :-/

Or, we in the West are miscalculating and misjudging this whole thing.

I think we make a mistake by not coupling this with China.

Russia and China have grown closer together. Russia sees China as a stable and reliable consumer of its coal, oil, and arms. Plus, China shares the same geopolitical goal as Russia: to weaken the US (yes, I admit I have a USiancentric POV, but it is true from what I can tell). A weaker US means a weaker NATO, and that's Vlad's major concern with the Western world; he wants that buffer on his western border.

Vlad's Ukrainian play is useful for China. It puts more stress on the US, thereby creating a more malleable environment for China to make even more bold moves in SE Asia. Xi may see a favorable opening to finally move on Taiwan. A move on Taiwan now creates a crisis not only for the US, but its allies. This could be seen as the most opportune time for China to actualize what it believes it is: the rightful center of global power.

I fear as we play checkers, the Chinese (and to a much smaller degree, the Russians) are playing chess.

I'm not convinced these sanctions are going to have the teeth we are hoping for.

Hopefully, I'm just batsh!t crazy and way off the mark.

What else expect about a territory under external governance?

That is definitely a possibility.


I am not so sure about this. Not only does it go against some of their diplomatic principles (do not meddle in internal affairs and do not question the territorial integrity of countries) it also has thrown a wrench in their plan to divide Europe from the USA.

Also China will overplay its hand soon...this Olympics was planned as a huge image polishing but actually it only served to reject most viewers, and what the journos wrote home was rarely of the nice and positive kind Peking so hoped for....and nothing China wants more than the admiration of the world. Also in Africa their star is sinking with more and more Africans starting to get second thoughts about the massive chinese investments...the globalization with China the big profiteur has lost alot of it's glamour in the West...I'm not even talking about liberty and human rights and the Uighurs...

Now being seen to close to pariah Putin might not be what Peking wants or needs in these times!

*waves to Anti* :)

Hi, Anti - long time no see :)

As I said before, Russia is an economic and population dwarf compared to China, so the Chinese will never treat them as equal partners and Siberia is a tasty treat for China (in the long run, of course, but they are patient - they don't play chess, they play weiqui).

But in the short term, you are quite right - if Russia can take parts of Ukraine, then what's stopping China from taking Taiwan?

Taiwan could become China's Ukraine...

Here was jokes that current ukrainians is offspring of ancient russians that was too lazy to go to vast and almost non-inhabited woodlands on the east for a better life, so they continued to fcuk the sheeps in the steppe and grow the daughters for osman garems (as well as to increase wealth of crimean tatars). ;) But it is hard to find a russian family without relatives in current Ukraine.


Already is... I lived there for some time, brainwashing against communistic mainland China is almost as strong as in Ukraine about Russia.

Usually it is rather the loosers who move to new and unsettled territories. Sometimes outright criminals and adventurers. People without land and family. Exciled prisoners. For example in Australia the first settles were the prisoners. Usually quality of population in metropolia is higher than in the colonies. For example compare heavy crime rates (even among whites) in US and UK. Or level of education. An average American could hardly show his own country on World map. Americans are our children. A cowboys without a head...

Here the orginal Ukrainie. Three left corner counties on the map. Kijowskie, Bracławskie i Czernihowskie. That was it.

I hope that they take it and forever remove from the US the temptation to have another Korea and Vietnam.


But they were able to locate Europe - twice in the 20th century. Luckily, no Americans died.

So chess player made a move. Lugans and Donbas are new states in Europe.

I bet Hungary would be first of EU countries to recognize them.

And all that suits to Poland.

...just like Kosovo. I love when people can self-determine their destiny.