I cannot help but think that you're way too optimistic as to Russia's strategy and their general progress in this war.
Yes, their performance has ranged from abysmal to subpar, nonetheless, the facts remain:
1) Russia is steadily conquering and occupying Ukrainian territory, not the other way around
2) Ukraine is out of ammunition and is now totally reliant on the west just to gain some parity with the Russians
3) The west has cooled on helping the Ukraine, even if they send a few token pieces i.e. the 4-7 HIMARs systems (out of the 300 that Ukraine asked for), it'll make little to no difference on the battle field
4) American attention is focusing elsewhere due to more pressing problems stateside leaving the EU countries, which have a far far weaker military and a fraction of the amount of extra supplies, to help Ukraine. The Johnny Depp trial is more talked about than Ukraine. In fact, more and more Americans are talking about how we shouldn't even be helping Ukraine and are against the $40 bil that was allocated. People whether your average Joe-taxpayer or Kissinger or the people at Davos are calling for a negotiation to end the war, even if it means Ukraine ceding territory.
Funny how people cry about oh we can't cede territory to Putin, what example would that set? He's evil, no way! Well, the west was fine with giving Poland's sovereignty along with much of E. Europe to Stalin after WW2 because they too were sick of war.
Ukrainian logic:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has branded the human cost of the battle for east "simply terrifying," urging Western allies to speed arms deliveries to shore up Ukraine's ability to reclaim territory."We just need enough weapons to ensure all of this. Our partners have them."
His presidential advisor, Mikhaylo Podolyak, has listed hundreds of howitzers, tanks and armored vehicles as among items needed by the Ukrainian army.Bill Gates has tens of billions, I need it, therefore he should give it to me. At least half of what he has. And while he's at it I want: 10 homes, 50 cars, 2 yachts, and 12 playboy models to act as my bodyguards.
Hey, it's cheaper than the shopping list Ukraine gave the west...