Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 2

Donbas?

Start of the guerrilla war?

Looks like it.

Nobody could blame them.

Hopefully we will provide the best support possible.

Yes, if you use pidgin Russian as derived by Ukrainian peasant illiterates - also known to some as Ukrainian.

In proper Russian spelling, it is written with two letters S, since the word is a portmanteau of the words Донецкий and Бассейн, or Donets Basin.

Older than standard r*ssian and a much nicer language.


There's nothing "proper" about orcs terrorising Donbas.

Russia`s special operation in Ukraine saved Poland. If not for this, its quite obvious, in a few years NATO and EU would indoctrinate, manipulate and use Poland and Ukraine for attack or at least serious provocation of Russia and Belarus. War would broke out and Slavic world would be seriously harmed, with most probable development in direction of apocalyptic worldwide nuclear war.

Yes, EU and NATO are that sinister.

More likely demonstrative personal terror against members of civilian administrations.

Now I wouldn't complain if some Kaliber lands in some "valley of the poor" near Kiev, where palaces of ukrainian "elite" is located. Purely by technical glitch. It is developed by illiterate orcs anyway, you know...

More good news.

A r*ssian military plane has crashed near Ryzan, killing four and injuring (hopefully fatally) five.

Don't those help level the playing field a tad.
Ukraine lobbied the US for the HIMARS for months, and promised not to fire into Russia itself.
Time will tell.
Summer just heated up for the Russian occupiers and the last one for some of them because of America's generous charity.

@jon357 (hopefully fatally)

YOU SOUND LIKE A LOVELY PERSON

Yep it's a fight to the death I'm afraid.

from the aussie forum.

The Russian aggressor is after territory and has a vowed to remove Ukraine culture from the world. Ukraine has to resist to the point of zero net gain for Russia. Interesting that the call is always for Ukraine to negotiate...

this has been extensively studied, to the extent there is a fully developed hypothesis for how it works (does not work) based on actual data not just political rhetoric:

Wagner hypothesis: Negotiated settlements of civil wars are more likely to break down than settlements based on military victories; consequently, the long-term casualties of negotiated settlements are likely to be greater than those of military victory

the success rate of negotiation versus military victory:

...three-quarters... (34 of 46) were not renewed during the time of the study. Such a renewal occurred in only 15% of the victories, as opposed to 50% of the negotiated settlements. Several different chi-squared measures show this relationship to be significant at the .05 level or better.

in other words, negotiated settlement fail a statistically significant proportion of the time, while military victories only fail 15% of the time, this is a statistically significant difference in favour of military action.

these findings are robust:
To put it differently, if negotiated settlements are possible ways to end wars, are they effective at resolving the conflicts? ...they are not. On the contrary, negotiated settlements of identity civil wars are less likely to be stable than military victories and the chi-squared statistic is .01

the policy implications of these data would seem obvious: if you want to end an identity- based civil war, encourage a military victory,

source:
The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993 (pp. 681-690)
Roy Licklider
doi.org/10.2307/2082982

But being crazy is not thinking differently. The same goes for being stupid. Those people are stupid and they repeat their trope again and again. That is what I talk about - not about a different opinion.


Yes, they are Russian allies. That is not new. So what? They bulid on Russian not using militarry to achive its goals and Russia failed in this which put them in the spot.


Right now. We know what will happen in the future. Russian is an opotunitic vultre that always strike if smells a weakness. So it is better to starve it and deny its food now, that would send predecence for the future.

Hey that goat must have held a gruge against Russian soldiers. Poor goat.

@Cojestdocholery

Are you suggesting that those were muslim soldiers in Russian army, and the goat held a grudge against them, because they... no... I don't even want to think about it. War is cruel even on animals, isn't it?

I am.

Not as lovely as seeing orcs roasted though

Russian surface-to-air missile does a U-turn, whoops for the operator!
twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1540216519245832199

@johnny reb
It is not just the MRLS that make a difference. Right now, Ukraine has more artillery than Russia on the ground and once in position combined with the longer reach or MRLS things will change. Russia has the numbers yes, but that is only because they started with them. I would bet on Ukraine, not Russia. And if Russia crosses a line with NATO, its simply over for them in a conventional war.

If Bandera, Shukhevich, the other "founding fathers" of this ideology and the organizers of terror and ethnic cleansing (the Volyn massacre is an example) are "part of Ukrainian culture," then yes, we will remove that part from the world, forever. If the bearers are too persistent in their delusions, then along with them. There will be no more epic failures, such as the amnesty of September 17, 1955. Time has shown that the Bandera underground used this amnesty as a chance to settle its supporters in regions of Ukraine where the Nazis never had support, and to give them a chance to advance into power.

There was even an anecdote about two Ukrainian brothers. "One was a Hero of the Soviet Union, and the other a Banderaite. The latter returned from the camp, worked for a year as a groom, then became a brigadier, after another year - director of the collective farm, then went to the district party committee. His brother-hero asks upon meeting him: "How is it that all these years I was a simple tractor driver, and you are already a big boss?" And he answers: "And you write in the questionnaire that your brother is a Banderaite, and I am my brother, a Hero of the Soviet Union." We are washing our faces in blood now, because we did not crush this scum back then.

Photo below is banderite march in Ivano-Frankivsk (then Stanislav) in 1943.

You don't really care about it.

@PolAm


If either side crosses the red line you can bet that it will not stay a 'conventional war' for long.
Putin has already made it clear that if Russian soil were to be attacked that he would use nukes.
What I have seen so far, I do believe him.
I expect the U.S. or Britain would do the same if Russia attacked their soil.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Putin kicks the bucket.

@johnny reb
No one is going to attack Russia. If it was going to happen, the 90's was the time to hit them at their weakest. Now the west is waiting them out. A return to trade relations will not happen again until Putin is dead, if not for a decade after. Russia is F'd because of this absolutely moronic move on Ukraine. Russians should be calling for Putins head, but they are too dumb and indoctrinated in propaganda. Why? Because 95% can not get out of Russia and see what the rest of the world is like, so they chose to believe and accept their $hitty existence.

Probably Russian military will make a coup de etat or intelligence services will find a replacement. Army forces aren't up for it being to weak and busy in Ukraine. It would need to be Russian Navy+Air forces in conjunction with Belarussian Army to end it easily and quickly, by having Belarussian military co-operating with Russian military leadership this will increase such chances for Putin to not escape to Belarus and using it to go on while pro-putinists sabotage coup detat faction.

Those outside of Putins party will be decisive in this outcome if they stay passive or side with one of them is my guess

Never mind. Vatican, USA and western Europe invested very much so many now love banderists. People are worse then sheep.

focus.de/politik/bericht-bundesregierung-prueft-teilweise-enteignung-von-nord-stream-2-pipeline_id_107988378.html

According to a report, the Ministry of Economy is considering the expropriation of parts of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in view of the increasingly scarce gas supplies. That would be dangerous, however, and could lead to retaliatory measures by Putin.

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Federal Ministry of Economics is examining whether the part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that lies on German soil can be expropriated. This is reported by the " Spiegel ".

According to this, the federal government is considering expropriating the part of the pipe system on German territory and cutting it off from the rest of the pipeline. The tubes, which lead from land to sea, could then be connected to a mobile LNG terminal, thereby partially compensating for the infrastructure that was previously lacking....

Whoa!

Habeck is so bold! I never thought I would say that about a green politician but what could he achieve as a Chancellor???

I think it already has.
Russian oil tankers have been unloading to other countries tankers at sea.
Russian oil tankers are reportedly disappearing from tracking systems near Portugal's Azores islands as dark activity 'skyrockets'.
Who are these countries that are buying Russian oil lke this to avoid sanctions ?

Please. Please dobri brate don`t humiliate yourself. Go check who selling uranium to the USA. Its Russia. Plus other resources. All Europe knows that Poland buys Russian oil via German papers. All Europe buys it actually. Etc, etc, etc.

P.S. One public secret. If not with German papers Russian oil goes via USA or British papers. You buys USA oil, fraction of it is USA. Same is with gas. He, he. Its mixed with Russian oil/gas so USA name remain. Its even legal. Britain? Britain, my dear, taking great money from this crisis in extra profit. Brits...... Brits. Well, Brits.

Why do you think Brits abandoned EU?

Heahahah ahahaha hahah

Black markets and resource laundering has been going on for decades in many directions. None of it is big enough to influence economies or economic positions. This is about good and evil, and Russia has a chance to be beaten decisively by Ukraine. This would be humiliating and would definitely be the end of Putin. This is the goal, there is no other at this point. The Russians are right about it, and thats the only thing they are right about.

My point was, WHO is buying all this Russian oil as maybe NATO needs to sanction these countries also.
And if they are NATO countries then boot their ass out of NATO.

I don`t speak about black market.


Its delusion of yours. Most likely USA will be forced to abandon Europe, which is ongoing, and NATO would collapse as well as the EU.

@Crow
You are delusional. You know nothing of the US mentality regarding EU. Stop reading Russian propaganda and start talking to real Americans.

Ahem... Sir, what drugs have you been consuming, and where is it that I can get some too?

Depending on the time of week, and the weather outside, the Ukrainians have been claiming over the past month that their disadvantage in artillery support compared to the Russians is from 10x to 20x.

Not having enough big guns is only part of the problem. The bigger problem is there is nothing to fire out of them. Ukrainians claim that for every 5-6,000 shells they use daily, Russia will use 50,000-60,000. This means that the 150,000 155mm shells they received are enough for thirty days of anemic support, or three days of Russian-style high intensity fire.

Meanwhile Russia is literally delivering kilometers-long train echelons of ammunition directly to the front, while Ukraine is using rusty old trucks over blasted out roads to deliver a few crates to a single gun. Foreign mercenaries and disaffected AFU soldiers have been saying for months, that artillery support a-la Ukraine means you get three shells fired in some random direction, and then your "support" calls it a day.

Russia actually has a military industry that can produce shells at the required tempo (there are news reports that shell manufacturing facilities are running around the clock on three shifts). Ukraine has to search the pockets of all its friends to scrounge up a couple thousand shells (also for the wrong caliber compared to what the majority of its guns need), and then has to deliver them somehow.