Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 2

I've been saying this for a while. Empires like other empires dividing up Europe between them.But hey, nationalists smile, wave a flower and people suddenly forget the concept of lebensraum. Italy too; fascism never truly died there.

Paying for gas in roubles is at the moment an evil thing. Why have sanctions at all if companies and states just get round them?


Then they will have to be held back on the other side. Fortunately heavy weaponry is coming into use by the Ukrainian Army every day.


Can't you find a more reliable source than that? A well known shill for russia and the Assad regime, caught out in leaked private chats

Beeley admitted knowing that the Syrian government engages in torture, but said that she would never publicly state so. A very dodgy individual with a deservedly poor reputation.

Well, yes - that's more or less the structure of Putin's clever way around the sanctions. The end result is the same, billions of dollars worth of rubles are bought on the market daily. Gazprom cannot be paid in Euros. Therefore Gazprombank takes your euros and does the exchange trade for you, on the Moscow exchange. Then it proceeds to send the money along to Gazprom.

The goal is to create billions of dollars of demand for rubles. This goal is achieved through this instrument. It is working and the proof is the exchange rate.

Now it wouldn't be fair to say that this is the only thing that accounts for the rubles resiliency and place all the blame on Germany or Italy. This is only gas. Russia earns much more from oil, and much much more from oil and metals combined. Those exporters are forced by a new Russian law to sell 80% of the dollars or euros they own immediately upon earning them. This creates enormous demand for the ruble as well, and there America or the UK is just as complicit.

Generally, it's not clear how the US Treasury Dept picks winners or losers in the oligarch sanction game. For example, Potanin - the richest man in Russia - has not been sanctioned. What's more, he's been rewarded by being allowed to buy Societe Generale's bank in Russia at a fire sale, as well as the bank of a competitor, Tinkoff, after its owner fell afoul of the Kremlin for criticizing the war. The Tinkoff deal was done for allegedly 3% of fair value. The guy has basically earned an additional $3-5B over the past few weeks, while others have been wrecked. Why he gets a break is not clear, since he is one the architects of the entire oligarch system of the 1990s and one of the closest sponsors of the Sochi Olympics and other Kremlin projects.

Really? What's the conversion rate between Euros and Rubles?

found it...1 Euro : 65,45 Rubles

I think it makes a big difference if Putin is paid in Euros which are then converted or directly with Rubles....

@Bratwurst Boy

Google cancelled in your house?

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You have to admit Bobko.....the Ruble looks weak compared to the Euro.....

According to lack of people to set up temporary military administrations in a "occupied" cities (there was cases where ukrainian military comissariates returning to cities that just hours ago was passed by russian troops and started to recruit people and give firearms to "territorial defense") - there was no serious preparations beyond demonstration of force. There is also few other things that show lack of planning.

@Velund

That only proves the usual russian lack of order, not lack of intention to attack Ukraine.

We have a cure for those too.
The NATO military-industrial complex is now trying to coax the White House into sending unmanned fighter jets to counter Russia's invasion.
Kyiv reportedly met with the major defense contractor General Atomics about obtaining the "Hunter-Killer" MQ-9 Reaper drone, armed with Hellfire missiles.
There is no doubt that this will turn into WW3 once Russia really starts getting it's ass kicked with weapons that haven't even been introduced to yet.

China calls for BRICS expansion



rt.com/business/555777-china-brics-expansion-calls/

China in Talks With Russia to Buy Oil for Strategic Reserves

youtu.be/qLaUkfnoqTU

Turkey outlines position on Russian gas



rt.com/business/555744-turkey-russian-gas-supplies/

As McDonald's Exits Russia, China, Turkey, Brazil And India Step-In



The Russians are going to live longer.

forbes.com/sites/markfaithfull/2022/05/18/as-mcdonalds-exits-russia-china-turkey-brazil-and-india-step-in/?sh=3a398a8ddc80

Good News for Food, Bad News for War: Brazil Buys Russian Fertilizer



nytimes.com/2022/05/08/world/americas/brazil-russian-fertilizer-sanctions.html

How things stand even Africa would be better then western Europe. Man, Africa is serious.

Ohh! Another economic genius that compares currency strength by size of numbers. Any person that is even a little bit economically literate will read that chart and see a weakening euro and strengthening ruble.

By this logic, the yen must also be a joke of a currency - since its rate is 135 yen to the euro. How to explain then the very strange fact that Japan is the number three economy in the world, and until recently number 2, with an economy 20% larger than Germany's?

How about this: you need 3 Euros to buy 1 Kuwaiti Dirham. Kuwait must be a galactic economic superpower, right BB?

Lol.

And yes....usually the conversion rate is a good way to compare economies and the generally strength....no need to pout, Bobko.

Russia right now is getting sanctioned the hell out of it and quite isolated by the world....the consequences are just starting to show and will only get stronger in the coming years....there is no need to be so miffed about the weak Ruble, it won't get any better! ;)


Since we are practically begging Kuwait right now to take over the russian gas deliveries, I would say they are in a damn strong position....yes!

I'm not sure where Kuwait will stand once the West stops being so dependent on fossils (thanks to Putin)....but right now they have money and influence and more importantly lotsa oil, that makes them mighty rich and powerful, don't you agree?

Not those who are sent to fight in Ukraine.


Exactly. Norway, Kuwait, Qatar, USA - they will be taking over the gas markets from russia. russians, on the other hand, if they will be good girls, might manage to sell some to their Chinese and Indian overlords.

Russia is playing too nice.they should give some iskanders to yemeni rebels,and then watch gas price jump in europe.

Yes, and this is nothing new. A country which is basically one city only, with a small population and sat on a huge amount of hydrocarbons.

Their currency has always been strong.


Yet their life expectancy is low and falling.

And meanwhile, the confirmed number of dead orcs has reached 28,950 with three times as many hospitalised. Five more fires at russian military installations too, one close to Moscow.

That's another thing. European Union is the greatest food exporter in the world, so we should finally use it. Every time OPEC rises oil prices, we should proportionally rise food prices for export. Every time they refuse to produce and sell more, to keep prices reasonable, we should refuse to sell food.

Why can Russia or OPEC use oil and gas as economic weapons but we can't use our greatest in the world food exports as a weapon? Thing to consider.

@Bratwurst Boy

The bottom line, dearest BB, is that the ruble - according to Bloomberg, not RT or The Daily Mail - is the strongest currency in the world so far this year. It is an uncomfortable fact, but it is a fact.

This doesn't mean that Russia has a tremendous economy, or that everything is going honky dory. I suspect this is what you mean, and here you would be correct. The ruble has an unusually high exchange rate at the moment, which is causing serious problems as far as balancing our budget. From the point of view of government finances this is not great, since the price of a barrel of oil has collapsed 3X if measured in rubles. From 15,000 to 5,000 rubles roughly. Remember, Russia earns most of its money from oil and gas by taxing its producers, who have to pay those taxes in rubles. Russia does not earn money by the German government depositing money in the Ministry of Finance's treasury account. It earns it from taxing its companies.

The ruble is so valuable right now because demand for it is going through the roof, while imports have shriveled to near zero - meaning demand for dollars and euros is not there. It's an anomalous situation only possible due to the present sanctions regime. It means both good things AND bad things, depending on where you are sitting in the Russian economy.


bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/russian-ruble-surpasses-brazilian-real-as-world-s-best-currency

It's a week old by now, but if anything ruble has only strengthened since then.

I suggest we come up with a new word for people like you (and crow and bobko and velund et al)

жопанин (someone whose motherland is the tsar's arsе) in Polish that should be żopanin (maybe dupanin if more fully polonized) zhopanin would work for English....

Sample sentences:

The zhopanins are happy that a cultural center ouside of Kharkiv was shelled, they're less happy that no civilians were killed.

Despite zhopanin denials and obfuscation, it's increasingly clear that Russian soldiers tortured and killed many civilians in Bucha.

Works for me....

Well....

....The ruble resumed its advance against the dollar on Wednesday as the Moscow Exchange reopened after two days of public holiday. It's now up more than 11% against the US dollar since the start of the year, surpassing the real's 9% advance to become the top gainer among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The offshore rate is up even more, about 12%.....

Here seems to be the error......because a currency rises from "abysmal" a few percent points to "not so abysmal anymore" doesn't make them suddenly a strong currency, Bobko!

It sounds good, I'll give you that but the Ruble is not even in the same currency worlds as the Euro or the Dollar.....not even if its rising abit.....

...The ruble's gains result from a series of measures taken by the government to defend the battered currency in the aftermath of Western sanctions. On top of imposing capital controls, Russia has forced exporters to sell foreign-exchange and is demanding its natural gas be paid for in rubles. Strategists say the rally isn't credible as many currency-trading shops have stopped dealing in the ruble on the grounds that its value seen on monitors is not the price it can be traded at in the real world....

You still need bags for transport if you want to get Rubles for Dollars or Euros! Sorry!

Appeasement and self interest. Time to stop all purchases of russian hydrocarbons. It will be painful for those states that over-relied on them however stupidity should never be rewarded.

Brilliant. It would also explain why the letter 'Z' is a natural symbol for all Zhopanins.


My point was that oil/gas exporting Arab countries are not exactly farming powerhouses, are they? Also, sand is not very good and tasty for cooking. So, whenever they rise oil prices for us, we should proportionally rise food prices for them. Simple.

bbc.com/news/business-61188579

The EU, as the largest food exporter in the world, should use their food exports in the same way as OPEC/Russia are using their oil/gas exports.

This is the most intelligent statement you have made. Z had every opportunity to walk away, assuming Russia would have as well, and I do not assume Putin would have walked away from what he clearly wants. Had Z completely backed down P would have probably gotten Kiev because preparations likely wouldn't have been made. Bottom line is, no one trusts Putin and that is the same for just about every Russian on the planet. You history earns you this view.

So nice to see all the Putin @$$ lickers out writing on a Saturday. Must be that you have no lives. Happy gulag biatches!

It needs a rebuild, reformed economy.....see the signs of the times and move away from fossils....become a technological leader in green tech, diversify your industry, start developing and selling stuff the world wants....and the sky is the limit!

The sky could be the limit if Russians cared about the future and prosperity.

They don't. They only care about inflicting suffering on others (and somehow... get off on that).

It is what it is. Containing the beast and stop interacting with it is the best option now.

You know, I don't like such generalizations!

It sounds to much like the WWII hammer for Germany and regularly harking back to the Holocaust the moment Germany doesn't do what someone else wants....it's just wrong!

I'm not suggesting any kind of aggression or occupation of Russia... I'm suggesting isolation. We stay out. They stay in. (including making expats choose to relenquish citizenship or expelling them back to the President's zhopa). They can play NKorea until they learn how to stop invading countries or have something positive to offer.

German Wandel durch Handel worked brilliantly..... for Putin, no so well for any other country.

Russians can be as violent and miserable as they want at home. Not how I would want to live but they seem to like it... I don't care as long as they stay away from any country I'm in.


Note that I never do that (and think it's a cheap rhetorical trick that should simply be ignored).

Could the ruble be like the Swiss franc ?

Nope

It's no good outside Russia - the last time I had some in my pocket I had to get rid of them at a kantor near Munich hbf and lost almost 50 percent of fave value

Rich might use them to buy some sour horses milk and some birchbark shoes when it's time for his vacation at the luxury split level wooden hut next to some polluted mosquito infested lake

Meanwhile I am happy to have some Swiss francs and dollars and Euros - I know the central bankers are at least economists, not the school friends of a paranoid ill old man

....okay!

This Russian special operation is from the point of view of Poland`s interests best thing in last 100 years. Just when EU wanted to assimilate and ruin Poland. If not for this operation Nazi Ukraine would enter NATO and later attack those who still resist in Poland and Poland would be split among NATO members.

But, Russia reacted in time.

Elvira Nabiullina is widely recognized as one of the best central bankers in the world. EuroMoney recognized her Central Banker of the Year in 2015.

She saved the ruble in 2014, and did it again in 2022. She's actually from outside Putin's circle and is a pure technocrat. She's widely believed to belong to the "liberal" wing of Putin's cabinet, which he has been more or less sidelining since the 2010s in favor of people from intelligence and ministry of interior.

Previous people in her position have been assassinated for attempting to clear up the Russian banking system. Meanwhile, she has managed to close hundreds of small banks that were mainly involved in criminal activities. She is one tough lady.

euromoney.com/article/b12klw38gh82lt/central-bank-governor-of-the-year-2015-nabiullina-displays-crisis-fighting-skills