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Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 4



mafketis
20 Jan 2023  #2491

All people want is for them to stop obstructing others

Well Germany clearly wants to lead but refuses to do so, because it realizes most countries in the EU are on Ukraine's side but Scholz and party seem very, very reluctant to let go of russia (again German and russian partnership always ends up being a disaster for other countries.....)

Just saying a simpl "Nein!" would be better because then other countries that really want to help could proceed on their own, instead it's this ridiculous game of one official saying one thing and then another saying another.... dilly dallying while russia kills civilians.... fear of "escalation" when russia is constantly escalating...

I don't care how much raw money Germany is giving, it's doing terrible damage to itself (which I can learn to not care about) and Ukraine which I do care about.

mafketis
20 Jan 2023  #2492

To be a little clearer on my exasperation with German "leader" Scholz...

There's an old saying "Lead, follow or get out of the way"

Germany is not leading.

Germany is not following the leaders (US, UK, Poland)

Germany _is_ getting in the way of the leaders.

PolAmKrakow
20 Jan 2023  #2493

When everyone with German tanks tells Scholz to FO and they deliver to Ukraine, Scholz is a laughingstock and Germany can never lead the EU again. Scholz and Germany missing an opportunity here to be heroes. Missing a big opportunity to prove they are not compromised by Russia.

Bobko
20 Jan 2023  #2494

They will, if they don't receive more weapons.

What is this heresy? Hahaha.

Ukraine will lose if they don't receive more weapons and more financial support? This is a highly unusual opinion for this forum, historically speaking. I thought Russia was a second-rate superpower that couldn't even take on the poorest country in Europe, let alone NATO itself. Are you saying that the unprecedented support provided by the collective West has been the DECISIVE factor in allowing Ukraine to resist? Surely not.

Jokes aside, Europe's weapons stockpiles are being drawn down to critical levels with this new promised package. This is the most significant transfer to date, and took months of coordination. It's supposed to be a resounding statement of defiance to Moscow. At the same time, there is doubt whether a Republican-controlled Congress will approve a similar $50B package next year, let alone add additional discretionary billions in this year. So the role of this package necessarily has to be considered as a decisive, "all out" push. Any other serious packages, through low stocks, or manufacturing bottlenecks would have to largely be realized in 2024 and 2025.

What is the Russian perspective? We take the numbers seriously. Hundreds of tanks, and over 500+ AFVs, plus dozens of SPA is nothing to sneeze at. It causes concern regarding an impending counter-offensive where we may have to again give up territories that took months to liberate. However, we have the resources to digest this "infusion" in a matter of months, while it would take the West at least a year to repeat it. This is why Putin has been going around so jolly lately, because the worst fears had not materialized. Still, like I said - this is a huge package, and is still a serious cause for concern.

mafketis
20 Jan 2023  #2495

Ukraine will lose if they don't receive more weapons and more financial support?

No. It will take longer to win and primitive russian criminals will have more chances to kill Ukrainian civilians....

meanwhile, russia seems to be devolving into an outright death cult.... (even more than usual)

twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1616434893772435460

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1616359294538072069

useless, inferior garbage dump of a country.... it cannot perish fast enough. It gives nothing to the world but brutality and death and misery....

PolAmKrakow
20 Jan 2023  #2496

@Bobko
How about you go back to Russia? Stop hiding in the USA like the other Russian pu$$ies. Talk tough now while your comrades are turned into hamburger for wild dogs. Every fvcking punk Russian in NY is the same as you, all talk no action. What will happen next? The countries with German tanks will come together and say Fvck Germany, then Leopards will roll into Orc occupied territory and run over the Orcs in their trenches. That is what will come in the next 90 days. Before spring the Orcs will be in retreat mode in Donetsk. Everything the west supporters have said has come to pass and this will too. You and your comrades are nothing but dogfood waiting to be processed.

GefreiterKania
20 Jan 2023  #2497

Hahaha.

It sounded awfully like sinister laugh from horrors, Bobi.

Are you saying that

Hey, that's PF - we're venting, trash talking, flexing digital muscles, but apart from that, every now and then, we allow ourselves short moments of extraordinary honesty. That's what real freedom of speech can produce sometimes: a moment of truth. Let's savour the moment.

is still a serious cause for concern

This war has been a serious cause for concern from the very beginning, hasn't it?

*off to have a drink*

jon357
20 Jan 2023  #2498

territories that took months to liberate

They haven't been liberated yet. The orrcs are still there.

They will be liberated soon though.

How's your three-day 'special operation' going?

mafketis
20 Jan 2023  #2499

sinister laugh from horrors, Bobi.

He supports murdering civilians.... and you're surprised he's not a nice person/

He's just as bad as Sovolyov... a filthy genocidal murderer at heart (like the overwhelming majority of russians)

cms neuf
20 Jan 2023  #2500

I don't think anyone said Russia was a second rate power

Examples of second rate powers would be say France or Japan

Russia is maybe in the 5th or 6th rank. The only military victory in living memory was over North Ossetia.

Anyone with a halfway sober army will wipe the floor with your pathetic drunk soldiers

mafketis
20 Jan 2023  #2501

I never said that.

but you act like it, trying to be friendly with someone who supports the destruction of civilian infrastructure and atrocities in Bucha....

That's f*cking bullsh*t, Maf.

Where's your evidence that anything more than an insignificant minority of russians have any problem at all with the wholesale slaughter of Ukrainians?

Russia is maybe in the 5th or 6th rank.

That high?

GefreiterKania
20 Jan 2023  #2502

Polish MoD Mariusz Błaszczak said that regardless of the final outcome of the Leopards support plan, Poland will donate to Ukraine a brigade-worth number of T-72s and AFVs...

wydarzenia.interia.pl/raporty/raport-ukraina-rosja/aktualnosci/news-blaszczak-chcemy-budowac-koalicje-ktora-przekaze-ukrainie-le,nId,6546989

...so it looks like there was a German "nein" regarding Leopards. :-/

Miloslaw
20 Jan 2023  #2503

The German efforts to support Ukraine have been very disappointing.
I even heard an ex American General say today that the USA will cut back aid to Ukraine in nine months.....I kind of understand, because for the USA this war only has an economic value.Russia will never invade the USA.

But for Europeans, we need to follow the British lead and step up our aid.
Ukraine has to win this war for the sake of Europe.
If Russia even gets a partial victory, then it is Modova next, then The Baltic States and maybe then even Poland!
Ukraine have to.defeat Russia.
Germany and France need to step up.
We can't depend on America.....it is not their problem....

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2504

Ukraine has to win this war for the sake of Europe.

Well said.

It could be added: for the sake of FREE Europe, because Europe after Ukrainian defeat and with Germans and Russians once again caressing each other's d*cks will be anything but free. :(

jon357
21 Jan 2023  #2505

If Russia even gets a partial victory, then it is Modova next

r*SSia will push as far as they can.

Another reason that they have to be decisively detested.

Velund
21 Jan 2023  #2506

FREE Europe

Free from what? Are freedom level of Ukraine is OK for you?

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2507

Free from what?

Free from constant, genuine threat to our very existence. For Poland, historically, close cooperation between Germany and Russia has always constituted an existential danger.

I'm not sure how free Ukraine is, but at least they don't invade neighbouring countries - that has to count as a plus for them, right?

Bratwurst Boy
21 Jan 2023  #2508

It's absolutely astounding how Scholz still didn't gave in even facing this enormous concerted pressure by everybody and their grandmom right now in Ramstein!

If it weren't about help for Ukraine it would be nothing less than awsome!!! That shows alot of spine....what people ask though is: WHY??? And WTF???

....and slowly it gets embarrasing too....

jon357
21 Jan 2023  #2509

what people ask though is: WHY??? And WTF???

I just can't figure it our.

If he knows something that others don't, he should fess up

The war is going to get worse. It's as if he wants the ground war to devastate Ukraine.

It can't be a simple as wanting to trade with r*SSia in the future surely?

Since that isn't going to happen.

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2510

WHY??? And WTF???

BB, my dear naive friend - this is simply eiserne Konsistenz in German foreign policy. Your country's aim is economic/political domination in Europe. For that you need cheap Russian energy. And for that you need Ukrainian defeat. And for that your government would sell Poland too, without blinking an eye.

You're a good guy, BB, and I know there's more people like you in Germany... but your ruling class's political aims and dreams are morally doubtful (to put it mildly).

Bratwurst Boy
21 Jan 2023  #2511

It can't be a simple as wanting to trade with r*SSia in the future surely?

I doubt that too....

Your country's aim is economic/political domination in Europe.

Hmmm....right now would be his best shot then....projecting himself/Germany as THE leader, the liberator, the supporter/upstanding ally of the ones in need....but he actually does the contrary, destroying Germany's image and standing...making sure nobody wants it as leader....so....

This old prejudice about Germany also doesn't fit Scholz political upringing....he is SPD after all, quite leftist....

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2512

but he actually does the contrary

He doesn't care about the opinion of minor (in his view) countries like Poland, Czechia or the Baltics (he would sell us to Russia without a moment of hesitation), and the support for Ukraine in the old West (apart from the UK) isn't that unwavering and obvious. Without American pressure, I'm afraid, the European support would be even weaker.

Think about it, BB. It's the same iron consistency in foreign politics as it was in case of NS pipelines (despite constant, even dramatic, warnings from Poland).

There is no coincidence in it. Leftist or rightist - no matter - that's important for internal politics; in foreign politics Germany's 100% consistent in this matter.

Bratwurst Boy
21 Jan 2023  #2513

He doesn't care about the opinion of minor (in his view) countries

....na ja....right now he leaves major countries like Britain, France and especially the US quite baffled too.

in foreign politics Germany's 100% consistent in this matter.

....at least Germany won't invade anybody anymore....not with that army.....that must count for something, right? :)

PolAmKrakow
21 Jan 2023  #2514

@Bratwurst Boy
How will it look for Scholz when the rest of Europe that have Leopards just give them to Ukraine anyway? That is what will happen, or the US will say ok, we will send some Abrams once you allow the Leopards because Abrams are so much larger and more difficult to train for and maintain. Scholz is playing a game of chicken with the US and that is not going to end well one way or the other. Ballzy? Yes. Stupid? More so much more stupid than ballzy.

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2515

that must count for something, right? :)

It does indeed! :)

We have enough on our hands preparing our defences against Russia. If we had also Germany to worry about, I'd probably be getting a little nervous.

Bratwurst Boy
21 Jan 2023  #2516

How will it look for Scholz when the rest of Europe that have Leopards just give them to Ukraine anyway?

Frankly....I'm coming slowly around to thinking that's what he wants....that's something he wouldn't object to....

Think about it....all "Scholz-experts" agree that for him the red line seems to be "german panzer again on russian earth"....it seems to be a psychological thing, born from history, from german past...even as Selensky tried to reassure him that the Leopards will be only used inside acknowledged ukrainian borders....after all Ukraine was once part of the Sovietunion and german Tigers roamed there too.

Now POLISH or baltic or whatever non-german Leopards....maybe that's a compromise he can live with?

I dunno....sounds farfetched? Maybe...

PolAmKrakow
21 Jan 2023  #2517

@Bratwurst Boy
I think we all understand or at least acknowledge the German "guilt". It happened, and we can't change history. Scholz is missing a window though. A window to shake off the guilt through an action that assists another country, and by that action could change some of those opinions still held by a minority of Europeans.

If the Leopards come from other countries and I think they will, does Germany supply repair parts to those countries or to Ukraine? Lets assume other countries donate 500 of them. Thats a lot of moving parts. Even 200 is a lot. Those numbers of modern tanks in a very discipled attack on Orc held ground would be impossible for them to defend.

Since the timeline to make this offensive is between now and Spring, we are talking about only a few weeks to make it happen. Lets assume these tanks arrive in the next three weeks. February is Fing cold in Ukraine, a cold like I never felt before. The ground will only frozen for another 4 to 6 weeks at that point. I don't know how good Leopards will be in the mud, but that is a real issue.

Logistically, this should have happened months ago IMO.

Bratwurst Boy
21 Jan 2023  #2518

Scholz is missing a window though. A window to shake off the guilt

Umm...no....that doesn't work like that....not if its again Russia....killing today Jews for a good cause wouldn't lessen the Holocaust-guilt either (and is impossible for the same reason).

If the Leopards come from other countries and I think they will, does Germany supply repair parts to those countries or to Ukraine?

Good question....I have no idea! But it would surely be good business for KMW and not necessarily Scholz decision, so.....

I don't know how good Leopards will be in the mud, but that is a real issue.

youtube.com/watch?v=KMyraGz-Log
youtube.com/watch?v=R748GLdBwbg

What a baby! :)

GefreiterKania
21 Jan 2023  #2519

Lets assume these tanks arrive in the next three weeks.

Not going to happen, PolAm, and that's what worries me.

Błaszczak said that Poland is going to give Ukraine another brigade-worth of T-72s and AFVs but the delivery will only be complete by the end of March. With Leopards no specific date has even been set yet. I predict difficult two months for Ukrainians. It's a good thing that Russians are severely weakened as well at the moment. We all need to get our fingers out or Vlad will have his victory parade in Kiev. :-/

mafketis
21 Jan 2023  #2520

We all need to get our fingers out or Vlad will have his victory parade in Kiev. :-/

tbh a fair amount of the German establishment (incl Scholz) would like that just fine....


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