Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 4

Yes, that's exactly what we were discussing on the previous page. Much more hangs on this war than just Ukrainian independence, that's for sure, and maybe (just maybe) Germany are not that much attached to the idea of Pax Americana anymore.

They want to be an economic superpower. There are people there who believe it's their destiny.

And it's not as if they haven't tried already.

Cosying up to r*SSia has been part of that. And we can see it in their attempts to hamper the foreign policy of other countries over the Leopards.

Regarding Poland and the Baltics as their to dictate policy to.

The fundamental difference in this war as it concerns Russia and Germany is that Russia is trying to rewrite history while Germany does not want to be a part of that in any way. They neither want to help or hinder Russia. Being honest, Germany probably doesn't give 2 $hits about Ukraine. Ukraine is not a rival and not a big enough trading partner to make a difference to Germany.

The standard bearer for Democracy is the United States, and all of Europe wants to keep it that way. Perfectly understandable on the part of Europe. Contribute what you can when you can and the US will just lead the way. The problem with this concept now is that the US is changing. While Republicans were always "hawkish" on Russia and any other country that was not democratic, the appetite for war within the Republican party is diminishing. They like quick and decisive victories, not long drawn-out affairs. Democrats on the other hand have a very specific agendas now about globalization and special interest rights, and they are willing to spend to the end in order to get what they want. Then you have a totally divided population in the US on so many of these issues. Bottom line is that eventually in the US the desire for the financial bleeding to stop will exceed the desire to help Ukraine. When Biden is out of office, the war had better be won, or you will not be able to count on US support. When a republican takes the presidency, he will not GAF about Ukraine. He will demand peace talks or the US will be out. Then Z is in deep $hit.

Germany, between now and then runs the risk of pi$$ing off the US by trying to strong arm the US into doing more. Not a wise move when the Republicans are watching. What happens when the US says they will move the core of European operations out of Germany to Poland because of Germany's indecision? A real possibility. Playing chicken with the US is never a good idea. Scholz needs to start thinking big and long term picture.

Well....which country wouldn't want to?


It's called treaties which have been fine for the last decades or so....


There is a part of the german populace which would be okay with that....problematic is that this is the similiar part of the populace that wishes for closer ties with Russia and wants to keep Germany out of the Ukraine war....

IMHO it won't strengthen the US position in Europe putting all their Irons into one stronghold and leaving Central Europe for good....I guess the USian advisers know that too....

Most are happy being themselves.


It's called small print. And patently obviously not fine now.

Poland should take the lead and just send them.

Yes, please! :))) I'm serious. Just f*cking send them already. Enough of this bullsh1t.

Btw, it's good that there was a protest concerning this in Germany - finally!:

wiadomosci.wp.pl/uwolnic-leopardy-protestowali-przeciwko-decyzji-niemiec-6857846908930976a


I like the sound of that :))))

Nah....you would be more than happy for other countries taking the lead aka being stronger aka being economically successfuller as long as it isn't Germany!

As if it is a special german failure being an economical super power....

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1616487784633466895?s=20&t=zXi8XABaQTKSUvKp7DMf1g

"Several thousand protestors have gathered under the Bundestag building in Berlin against the German government's delay in supplying Ukraine with Leopard tanks."

Free the Leopards, Germany! 🐆

@Bratwurst Boy
The Us already expanding their presence in Latvia and other places. Germany is not a front-line state, and no longer critical for anything other than resupply and other logistics if a larger war breaks out. I think Germany over values themselves way too much. I don't think Germans understand how Americans think when it comes to loyalty and commitments of this nature. Either you are all the way in, or you are out, and if you are out, we will leave you behind. This is the American way, anyone not recognizing this is naive.'

Poland just told Germany that Ukraine soldiers will be getting trained on the Leopards in Poland immediately. So, Poland is about to lead once again and basically tell Germany to FO. Now that is what Americans will respect. Scholz needs to be very careful or this will blow up in his face.

That isn't truly about loyalty or other niceties, that is about hard power!

Imagine a Scholz-Germany where the US have even less influence, not even more a Ramstein where to meet....it isn't about "all in or all out" or NATO would be alot smaller (Turkey anybody?)

It's more about having a strong boot in the door, and keeping it open, not closed!


Polish Leopards for Ukraine next.....

@Bratwurst Boy
Yes, it is about power. I am not sugar-coating things like politicians do. Turkey? That would be the next place the US would slide into. With Turkey's inflation problems and reliance on LNG, they are ripe for the US to come and spend a lot of money, talk to Greece and smooth some things out. As calculating as some countries are, the US is much more calculating. Is it pretty or nice? No, certainly not. I make no excuses, and the US wont either, it is why they are the superpower we are all talking about.

Polish Leopards to Ukraine with or without Germany approval is how it looks, and then who else follows. This is a bad look for Germany being told to FO by the rest of the world who buys their Leopards, and then I wonder how much military spending goes Germany's way?

They are already there....for a long time....no matter how difficult Ankara has been or about the war to start with Greece for years now....

militarybases.com/overseas/turkey/

Right now they are making the growing of NATO extremely difficult and still you don't hear Washington wanting to move out of Turkey....with good reasons!


.....but a great advertising for german Panzers! Everybody is talking about them, comparing them...

No really....is Germany really the only one being able to produce tanks of that class?

I wonder why ...

It's something that police in London say, and very apt concerning r*SSia right now and perhaps Germany too that the cops who want to join the special teams that are allowed to have guns are the very ones that shouldn't be allowed to join.

S/he who craves the boss's job is usually the last person you'd want to have it

What makes you think that there are fundamental differences between Washington and Berlin on this issue? Despite their support it is evident that the USA have also reservations about providing Ukraine with everything they request, like rockets that can hit deep within Russia. Their excuses to not provide Ukraine with Abrams are quite questionable, people are just not drawing that much attention to it.


You really dont know Germany, or else you would not say that it "craved" leadership. Germany was very reluctantly cast into a leadership role during the Eurocrisis because there were no other alternatives.

Also Billy Connolly "The desire to be a politician should bar you for life from ever becoming one."


For once I agree with you, they could call germany bluff and provide 10 as a symbolic gesture.

... and standard form of delivery of Democracy is bombs, artillery shells and winged missiles. We seen this many times since WW-II.

Not in your case, Jon! ;)

You sound more like someone following the old european big powers rivalry....if it isn't Britain against France it's Germany against France or Britain and France against Germany or Germany and France against Britain etc. etc. etc. as so often in our long history!

Everything but letting the other having to much power! :)


Well....right now I read here on PF alot more people wishing Poland taking the lead..."craving the boss's job".....I don't hear you disagreeing with that? Rather the contrary....as long as it isn't Germany everybody else can wish and strive for more power and you applaud it....how come?

Quite ironic that thise kind of people tended to vote for Brexit, which drastically reduced British influence on Berlin and Paris. London was often succesfully in getting either Germany or France siding with it against the other, like they used to historically. All of that is gone.

....Washington won't be as shortsighted!

Because unlike Germany, Poland has not murdered millions of people during the colonisation of africa or their later adventures in europe. The old boss is unfit for the role and needs to be replaced.

Erm....Germany wasn't a boss since 1945 anymore....where have you been?


So....that doesnt count for any polish politician either?

Maybe you and Jon should just refrain from touting such not-so-smart-sayings and be honest about your frank germanophobia. It's more acceptable than your tattle....

I wonder if you two would be really so happy with Germany sending Leopards and be more involved on ukrainian side....after all the medial glorification, all the world wide applause and good PR and the strong case for a german led Europe must be a horrible vision and truly unbearable for you....

The reunification of germany changed that as well as the EU.


You perfidious hun! how dare you?! Germany reputation already trashed, sending tanks won't recover it.

What did I dare? Are you joking?

Yes, please!! 🙏

Poles are for sending both Leopards and Abrams:

rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art37782831-sondaz-polacy-za-przekazaniem-czolgow-leopard-i-abrams-ukrainie

But majority of Germans are against sending Leopards to Ukraine:

pap.pl/aktualnosci/news%2C1523539%2Csondaz-niemcy-przeciwni-przekazania-ukrainie-czolgow-leopard.html

They are however in favour of allowing other countries to send them.


From the comments:

"Those leopard shouldn't be in cage, they should be in Ukraine hunting down the orcs"

Yes, Leopards belong in the wild hunting down orcs!!

Come on, Germany, come on!!

The main thing is that the Abrams runs on jet fuel. US military uses jet fuel for everything because it simplifies their logistics of supplying only jet fuel. But it would be incredibly difficult for Ukrainians to establish a jetfuel-based supply line to run these tanks, and they don't have this level of support due to their less air-centric doctrines and logistics.

While you could potentially use any fuel in an emergency, you will trash the engines and the Ukrainians are not equipped to deal with this on the scale that will be needed to keep an Abrams running under that kind of sustained abuse.

Besides it can't reach full speed or achieve its strategic potential without jet fuel, so the Leopard 2 is a much better fit for Ukraine.

@Tacitus
You do know that the Abrams uses a jet engine to move around the battlefield, and that jet engine, along with the training how to operate the largest most modern tank in the world takes a lot of training. A regular crew member takes about 6 months of training for an Abrams. Abrams mechanics take a minimum of five months training. The jet engine mechanics take a lot longer. Parts for an Abrams are very expensive, and lets not forget, a whole bunch of Abrams are being repaired from duty in Afghanistan and Iraq. Logistically, even if agreed to send 20 of them, the training alone will take them well into summer and that is too late. But I hope the US does call the bluff and Germany again looks like a follower and not a leader, cementing their subservient position to the US.

@Velund
May we deliver that standard form of Democracy to Russians everywhere. LOL Look up HMARS on the way. LMAO

Germany has been one of the three powers in the EU. The others France and Brussels. Poland is about to push Germany or France out of the way and its looking more and more like Germany. Scholz position is going to have the opposite he and other German politicians would like.

Blaszczak apparently promised one full brigade trained in Poland by March 2023. With all MBT and combat vehicels that are needed. I don't think we have enough T-72, so they will have to include PT-91 as well to form full mechanized brigade.

Unless it is just motorized brigade...

Or just light infantry...

Or just territoral defense brigade...

Hope I am wrong. The most sensible approach would be to form:

1) A few full brigades of T-72/PT-91 from Poland/Marocco/Greece etc. (and Poland/Marocco/Greece etc. getting Abrams in return, plus Poland getting K2 quickly from South Korea to fill the gaps)

2) full brigade of Leopard 2 made of EU states (10 - 14 Tanks each donor Poland/Finland/Denmark/Sweden/Germany) - a soon as crews are ready to be proficient at least on company level.

I'm not surprised....


....will Poland taking over Germany's budget duties too? Serious question here!

Because it's hard to imagine that the biggest net-recipient of EU-support will somehow push out the biggest net-payer.....what exactly makes Poland so powerful?

@Bratwurst Boy
Poland will lead through its military and through Political action. Money does not always consolidate power. Sure it usually gets a louder voice, but that voice won't be heard over the noise of tanks rolling to Ukraine from Poland and other places when Germany refused. Financial obligations are based on agreements already in place. Imagine how pi$$ed regular Germans will be when this comes to pass. This is all Scholz doing and it doesn't have to be that way. Imagine 20 years from now being able to say that German defended all of Europe from Russia instead of an older version dealing with Russia. That picture is much easier to paint now than repainting the old one.

While I personally dont care how they get there, the Leopards need to be in Ukraine asap. I dont care about Germany's feelings or politics. This is a real threat to all of Europe, and Germany is not standing up for its partners like it can. If Ukraine is forced to lose part of its lands in a peace deal, Moldova will be next. Then They will go after Latvia or Lithuania. Then maybe Poland. Germany will be somewhere on the list in the next 10 years, after all the USSR had half of Germany and little Vlad wants to recreate the USSR. Ignoring a threat because it isn't on your doorstep now is only inviting it to get closer.

...so....Polands power depends on war? Seriously?

Right now it's about tanks....not even polish build tanks but german build tanks....will Poland equally be es active once the rebuilding of Ukraine starts and Kiev is going around with a big pot in hand?

I don't want to sound arrogant here and I fully can understand polish pride and contrary to others on this board totally accept every country's fight to gain more influence and power, to become more successful....but having and giving out money is a HUGE part of it, especially in a union like the EU.

The moment Poland is ready and willing to share/take over the more less pleasant duties from Germany I will agree with you!