Bobko
11 Apr 2023 #2461
The fall of Russia, on the other hand, will bring consequences still difficult to predict.
Nothing interesting will happen if Russia falls. What? Do you think Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will move in to reclaim lost territories? Perhaps China will take the far east? Finland, surely, will move to take back Karelia and Poland will reclaim East Prussia?
Won't these countries be afraid of those mighty sanctions that crippled and exploded Russia? Perhaps America will suspend the international rule of law, to allow its friends to feast until they get their full.
No, what will probably happen, after a "Russian collapse", is some new Obama and some new Macron will arrive to "rekindle ties with the friendly Russian people". Because, in the end what is bad for Russia in a conflict such as this, is bad for America and bad for France.
They don't want to set precedents of presidents of great powers facing international tribunals. They don't want to show that a small country can impose its will on a big one through asymmetrical tactics involving novel weapons like drones and improvised explosives. Russia must be punished, but not too harshly - otherwise the entire facade crumbles. The Security Council vetos, the nuclear arsenals which no one else can have, the claim to be able to interpret the will of the global population, etc.