Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 7

Boris Badenov admits offensive is over

youtu.be/ke5-C1GVNnQ

Russian big advance meant that Avdeevka would soon be taken

youtu.be/0pTTRFXvkNs

@Tacitus
I dont think you are really seeing what is happening in the US. The Republican far rights took out their own speaker of the house to get someone in that position that will block Ukraine funding. They blew up their own tank to build a more dangerous tank. Biden will continue to attempt to ties Urkaine funding to Israel funding now and while there is support for Israel, this tactic still may not work. And Europe cannot ever match the production power of the US when it comes to weapons and ammunition. The US is in a peace time economy right now and Europe still cant keep up.

The idea that Russia will give up simply based on deaths is not founded on anything other than hope. Russia has never "given up" or stopped fighting in any war until they have lost at least a million people, we are not half way to that point yet. Vlad wont mind a million losses if he has the prizes he went after. Its not like he cares about anyones opinion.

Maybe, maybe not. There is certainly a risk of the USA stopping its' support for Ukraine, but there are also reasons to be optimistic. The election is impossible to predict anyway.


The question is not whether Europe can match the US but if it can enable the Ukrainians to continue the fight. And on that front, we have made a lot of progress. European defence companies are building factories in Ukraine and have ramped up production (e.g. Rheinmetall went from 10k 155mm shells in 2022, to 50k in 2023 to a projected 650k in 2024). Others are doing the same.

Naturally the loss of American support would drastically weaken Ukraine's prospect of retaking its' territories. But would it force them to surrender? In 2023 the answer would have been most likely been yes, since Europe would not have been able to satisfy Ukraine's basic demands like 155mm shells. But in 2025, things could look differently, based on data we have today.

We also need to take into consideration that Russia will be in a different position by then. Another 15 months of fighting, its' military assets being further reduced and the fallout of the war on the state and society being more visible. Who knows if Putin can push for total victory by then.


Keep in mind that Putin's Russia is not the Russian Empire or the SU. It does not have the number of young men those countries had.

I read all that cr@p, and suspect that you live in a parallel world. ;)

For now, shells used by Russian army is mostly 2023 YOM and already ramped up productions is enough not only for current demand, but also to partially replenish stock that was used up during first year.

As for " fallout", Russia now has an unprecedented ~3% unemployment rate and widespread hiring announcements. Thanks to the so-called "sanctions", the pressure of foreign competitors on local production in many areas has been sharply reduced, and local production of many things that were economically unprofitable is now booming, especially those where tax preferences have been granted for the time it takes to set up and run production facilities. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for foreign producers, who left Russia, to return in many areas.

But perhaps the strongest blow was dealt to the internal "fifth column", the former "opinion leaders" who ran out of Russia like cockroaches in the kitchen when the lights were turned on at night. ;) And some of them were foolish enough to go to Israel and declare that they "can no longer live in a country that is at war with its neighbors". When they were shown how they were waiting in line in Ben Gurion to fly out of country in order not to be drafted for war with the Palestinians, even their former supporters were laughing like horses here in Russia. ;)

Concerning worldwide reputation of "western democracies" - I will not even talk about this. It was nearly impossible to inflict such harm from outside that was done by them from inside.

Which is why Russian daily artillery shell comsumption went down from 53k to 4k ;) Perhaps the Russians will be able to stabilize the current rate with North Korean aid, but the days when they enjoyed an advantage over Ukraine are over. Yet another advantage lost.


And it will remain this way no matter the consequences because Putin knows that he can mislead people with those figures. Putin is diverting all the money that should have gone into the long-term investments for Russia's future (education, infrastructure, industrial diversifcation) in those short-term gains. Next year Russia is projected to spend more than 10% of its' GDP on the war in Ukraine with no end in sight.

One day the bill for this war will be presented to the Russian people. They'll be stuck with a diminished GDP thanks to all the produced weapons being blown up in Ukraine. A diminished workforce. Many disabled former soldiers or their relatives on social welfare. A crumbling infrastructure (even more so then now). The end of the fossil age. On top of problems that would have manifested themselves anyway like the demographic decline, but have been made worse due to the war. Whether or not unemployment in 2023 was 3 or 30% in 2023 won't make a difference in the end.


In other words, Russian companies are heavily subsidized and produce without any competitors or access to foreign innovations. Which may seem fine for now, until the Russian state runs out of money (which is inevitable see above) and the gap to foreign competitors becomes too great. We have seen this happening once already with the industry of the Warsaw Pact. Russia was always going to be in trouble within a few years when the world no longer needs Russian fossil fuels. Putin has ensured that Russia will not even have any alternatives it can export once this happens.

Putin will leave Russia much poorer when he dies. That much is already certain. Only the scope of the damage done to Russia remains to be seen.

Putin does not care for all of this, but there are no doubt other people with aspirations for leadership that may feel differently. Putin may not be strong enough anymore in 2025 to drag his country down with him, which may open the path for a peace deal.

How do you know that?
On May 10, 1945, the Soviet shell consumption went down, too.
BTW, I love the Red Army for liberating Poland.

He was told by same MSM that tell him that Ukraine is winning and Biden is the best POTUS in history. ;)

I posted a source for that yesterday.


Apparantly not enough to stick around later.


As opposed to the Russian media and their grasp on reality. ;)

My ex (in Donetsk now) told me yesterday that she cannot remember so dense shelling of Avdeevka, and according to sounds there is 500+ kg gliding bombs arrive time to time.

@Tacitus
You are right in that Russian artillery use went down, but not by the numbers you used. It dipped by 10 to 20% depending on the days. This was in the last few months. Missile use has also gone down, while missile production in Russia has been boosted dramatically. The US has said they are holding back for a new Russian winter offensive. Historically, Russians love winter for defense and counter offensives.

Even if the EU could allow Ukraine to continue the fight without US support, they can not provide enough to allow Ukraine to push the Russians out. Period, end of story. Zelensky talking about taking back every meter is fvcking delusional. It is not going to happen. If they dont negotiate soon, when the US is done supporting them, Russia could over run Ukraine positions.

Lets remember the entire EU is also trying to re-arm itself, and you cant do that and continue to arm Ukraine. Time for some people to start talking.

...Israel and Taiwan while still being the world's dumbest cop to feed his messiah complex.

World's dumbest cop (def.) - he who protects others for free. See Kuwait and "babies out of incubators".


...sense. This eliminates Biden and RINO neocons.

I didn't know that...

Only 15% of Kiev preschoolers 'actively speak' Ukrainian - NGO
Another 20% do not speak the language at all, with Russian remaining dominant among the capital's children

Russia should "annex" Kiev, too...For the children! Just make sure the referendum includes kids from 3 and up.

Hey, BB and T, read this:

'You owe us' - Ukrainian Foreign Minister to Germany
Dmitry Kuleba said he's been trying to instill sense of guilt among officials in Berlin in citing events of WWI and WWII

Before you send more stuff listen to me...You owe them sh*it...Germany first and everybody else GFY.

I want my honorary German citizenship.

Speaking russian is not the same thing as being russian (except for deranged psychopaths in russia... which is most of them).

85% speak Russian as their primary language because they are Russians. They just happen to live in what is called Ukraine.

Everybody in the universe knew this except you, apparently.... an even higher percentage (about 98%?) of the Irish speak English as their primary language but everybody realizes now that that does not make them English.

Similarly the overwhelming majority of Austrians speak German s their primary language and are very clear about the fact that that does not mean they are German....

What stupid point are you trying to make?

Probably he wish to note that after repatriating just 15% of recently moved native galician dialect speakers back to their historical motherland, Kiev will be again doubtless "Mother of all Russian cities", as it was for many centuries. ;)

That would be an extremely stupid point to try to make.... so you might be right.

Maybe, maybe... Also reversing results of "army servicemen families resettling" state program that moved a lot of westerners to Odessa since 2014 would return city to normal historical Russian-Jewish state. ;)

More on topic, what's with mysterious 'disappearing' russian soldiers.... is it like the Bermuda triangle? ....hmmmmmm

twitter.com/anno1540/status/1713463515522969629

@PolAmKrakow


In other words, Ukraine has 15 more months to make gains and in the worst case scenario will have to stay on the defense afterwards. Far from ideal, but also far from Ukraine will have to surrender if Trump gets elected, which was the point I originally made. And depending on the state Russia find itself in at this point, it might even be prudent for Ukraine to continue the fight afterwards instead of negotiating. We have already seen the Russian limits of operational warfare. There is no reason to think that they could suddenly overrun Ukraine after fighting for another 15 months at the current rate of attrition. The Russians already lost their advantage in artillery fights. Ukrainia is receiving more and more modern air defence systems, while Russia will have to make due with fewer rockets down the line. Ukraine will even receive F-16s next year. In 2025 the Russians will fight an Ukrainian army that will outgun them in several areas.


There is really no reason why both should not be possible. The cost of supplying Ukraine with weapons is relatively for each indivual country, especially compared to the money spent on each military.


The Russians may very well come to rue the losses they sustained in Robotyne and Adviika next year.

So is a KO-Third Way victory good for Russia, or bad?

Will they fix relations with Ukraine?

Will they continue to place more faith in Washington as far as security concerns go, or will they try to play ball with the Macrons of the world that want the EU to be a "power in its own right"?

Good and bad. Poland will ally with Germany to fast track Ukraine into EU, at the expense of individual countries having a veto and qualified majority voting in the EU instead. (bad for russia.)

The cost for this EU assescion of Ukraine will be pressure on them from Germany to sign a Minsk 3 agreement. (good for russia)

On a broad geopolitical level, the biggest loser of the Israel-Gaza war is Ukraine. The biggest winner is Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Having two major wars happening at the same time will take momentum from Ukraine.

Before this new war started, Ukraine was already battling to keep its funding going as the shifting politics in the United States moved against it.

In some ways, Ukraine's biggest challenge is not Vladimir Putin - its army has both his measure and the measure of the Russian army - but the murky, swirling waters of a dysfunctional Washington.

abc.net.au/news/2023-10-16/israel-gaza-ukraine-us-support/102979776

Wot???

Who said Germany wants Ukraine in the EU so fast??? Do you have an idea what that would cost us???

That's the promise they made to Zelensky to turn against PiS. Also it's their way to get rid of the veto, along with letting in the balkan nations.

Who is "they"???

I'm really interested because right now we just don't have the money....

That is not even a topic of discussion here!

They is Sholtz.


You didin't have the money to let in millions of fake refugees, or modernise the Bundeswehr , yet here we are..

.....yeah....and Germany regrets....loudly....that's why the chances for Ukraine in the EU are really not good now. Nobody wants a repeat!

I wouldn't get my hopes up if I were Ukrainian.

I spent about half hour reading ukrainian news, just to see what they hear daily from media. It would seem that the Ukrainian authorities have something to do. But they persist in demolishing monuments and renaming streets.

A smart person said: if the security of your state is threatened by the names of streets, cities, monuments, heraldry, the people who live there, and the language they speak, you are probably building your state on someone else's territory.


Dulce et decorum... to spend someone else's money.... ;)

@Tacitus
Its not like Ukraine is getting 100 F-16's. They are getting maybe 30 to 40. This is not near enough to defend a country of Ukraines size. But yes, they have about 15 months left to make some big moves, and yes I agree, it could still happen. I just dont see how it wil happen. Will the Abrahms tanks make a difference? Probably yes, but how much? I really think the US and NATO missed the opportunity to swing things and allow Ukraine a big win. Long range missiles should have been sent and the bridge to Crimea taken out completely. But it says a lot about Ukraine that they didnt get them. The US and NATO really doesnt trust Ukraine.

Now with the Poland elections over, it is going to get real interesting. Tusk will make more moves toward the EU, and the EU will likely be a little more friendly to this new government. But what will it mean for Ukraine? Will Poland do more for them if the reconstruction money starts flowing in from the EU? Or will Tusk do more for Poles and Poland.

With talk of another war starting in Armenia with Azerbaijan invading, things could become very dangerous on other fronts. The US certainly cannot police that situation. With an invasion of Gaza coming, every religious nut case in the middle east is going to get fired up. Everyone in the EU better be on alert for the next wave of refugee's.