Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 8

A critique of the anonymously sourced WP article (pointing out the air power factor and the failure of the US to actually deliver what Ukraine needed and often what the US had promised).

Meanwhile in the real world if russia is allowed to keep Ukrainian territory expect a bunch of wars of annexation (most latin american countries have claims against their neighbors) and Xi will make a play for Taiwan... Azerbaijan will invade to get a corridor and russia will invade a Baltic country....

US foreign policy tends to be penny-wise, pound foolish.

The US has a choice.... nip it in the bud or get ready for massive supply chain disruptions across the world.

As Zeihan said, the US has been the guarantor of global trade since the end of WWII and if it walks away from that (as it's been doing) things will not look good (and the US will suffer very much as well).

And of course Venezuela is massing troops at the Guyana border as we speak. They made their claim official in their parliament last week.

Not keeping a promise and/or not seeing a task through to the end is the clearest way possible to lose face. Hopefully, they'll come through with the money (and the armaments they promised).


Fortunately, r*SSia are running on empty and of course the Baltics are in NATO. Plus, the territory taken by the orcs would need billions spending on it.

A bigger risk is Egypt (with 100 million people and no oil) invading the country to their west (with 6 million people and a lot of oil).

How? There are no real roads.... it's all jungle and marsh (both terrible to try to move soldiers in).

That's a question with no easy answer.


Guyana is the land of mud however this is worth reading.
demerarawaves.com/2023/10/18/guyana-asks-venezuela-to-explain-troop-buildup-informs-international-regional-partners/

It could be Maduro sabre-rattling however the border dispute is worth watching.

I think it's part of the kremlin plan to normalize military annexation.... the Venezuelan government is a servant of moscow and peking (little known fact: they tried out the social credit passes in Venezuela before launching the program in China).

The plan is to normalize uncertainty about borders so that American cowards will find excuses to not do anything when russia invades a Baltic country (which they are most certainly planning to do).

The only real question is which Baltic country is first... Latvia and Estonia have the larger more troublesome russian minorities but Lithuania borders russian occupied Krówlewiec/Königsberg.

The Suwałki gap has long concerned analysts. There are NATO troops to protect it though. Latvia is vulnerable by its geography.


China is certainly behind a lot. Those couple of Caribbean islands that became republics within the Commonwealth rather than Commonwealth Realms had massive trade deals and loan from China immediately prior to their change.

China's edge on the US is trade and currency related. Neither country is going to invade the other. Taiwan, wont be defended by Americans when a republican is in the WH. Chip manufacturing is being moved to the US, factories have been under construction for a year and a half and some are operating. Nvidia was just told they cannot manipulate chips any longer for sales to China and they cant allow China AI technology. China, cannot afford to lose the US as a consumer.

Russia, by most accounts would need 8 years to re-equip itself for a major war in Europe. They have lost too many men and way too much equipment. With sanctions ongoing, what level of equipment they can provide in the future is really questionable. Cant build tanks and jets out of dishwashers and washing machines.

Venezuela passed a referendum authorizing the invasion of Guyana just the other day. Thats a pretty serious act, but really who GAF what they do? Its none of the US or EU business. The same in the middle east, let them fight it out. Lets solve our own problems, feed, cloth and house our own citizens first.

US foreign policy has cost too many US lives, and too much US money. The debt will take multiple generations to pay off. American people are tired of being the worlds police department, welfare bank, and home for those who chose to leave their own country. Please point to another country that has done as much or more for Europe and the rest of the world when they are in need more than the US. Please explain to me how the average American citizen is suppossed to be convinced that paying for this war is in their best interest when they cannot feed their families, pay for their car, or afford their mortgages. It is time for Ukraine to STFU and start negotiating before things are so bad, Russia pushes their way to Kiev just by sheer numbers of soldiers. It could happen before March.

Russia will not attack the Baltic countries.

As to Egypt, Guyana, Eritrea, and the rest of the world being consumed in lawless chaos, because Russia was allowed to get away with a land grab - OPEN YOUR EYES!

The "rules based international order", where no wars of aggression happen, is something that only exists in the heads of delusional Westerners.

Stop trying to view every single event through the lens of Munich and Chamberlain's appeasement. It's like, the last time somebody opened a history textbook was in high school, after reading about WW2.

Just off the top of my head... since 1945:

1) China annexed Tibet
2) India and Pakistan have fought multiple times over Kashmir
3) Jordan and Egypt gained the West Bank and Gaza, respectively, only to later lose them again in 1967.
4) Turkey invaded and occupied a third of Cyprus in 1972.
5) East Timor - invaded and annexed by Indonesia
6) Argentina and Britain fought a war over the Falklands.
7) Iraq invades and annexes Kuwait.

You will notice, I left out all the American, Russian, and South African adventures.

The world has always been a crazy place.

Also, it's clear to everyone in the world that your crocodile tears over inviolable borders and strong international law, is something that you only care to invoke when things go haywire for your camp.

We'll all be just fine.

That's it - 7 in 80 years

There are also a few more like Morocco

But what do you notice about the dates ?

Thing is that all that nonsense stopped in 1989 when the Cold War finished

I think Udmurtia's alcoholic invasion of Ukraine is the first straightforward land grab since 1991

How short your memory is. It hasn't even been two years since Azerbaijan performed an ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, and annexed the territory.

Oh but I forgot - that was a good war. It was a good war, because Russia was humiliated through its inability to defend a weak ally from the depredations of a rich petrostate, which had poured untold billions into building a machine of war.

The ethnic cleansing of Armenians was just and proper, because it was done using Israeli anti-tank missiles and Turkish Bayraktar drones. The destruction of a people, is a small price to pay - when you think about it - for reminding Russia about the miserable quality of the weapons it produces.

Nagorno-Karabakh was a good war, because there are not that many places left to buy oil and gas from, if you stop buying from Russia. Not buying from Azerbaijan, means buying more from the theocratic dictators of the Middle East (which the West does, of course, but wishes it didn't have to). While Azerbaijan is certainly a hereditary dictatorship, it is not theocratic. Only kleptocratic.

There's more hope yet, on the horizon, of another righteous annexation. This time, Israel may make up its mind about annexing Gaza. I will thoroughly enjoy watching the lemmings in Brussels and Washington do somersaults to explain how that is Kosher/Halal.

Finally...I found something we disagree about...

When the spending addicts run 1 trillion a year deficit, to start paying off 32 trillion debt they would have to cut spending by 2 trillion a year - one to stop adding to the debt and one to start paying it off. That is as likely as me transitioning to a woman, getting pregnant, and having triplets.

More likely: the Zimbabwe solution folowed by Terminator 3.0.

Please prove me wrong. I will really be gratful.

...and that's why the snake decided to crawl toward Russia, the US went to Iraq twice, ... you know the rest...

Did you know that the US is still in Syria? Uninvited? Which made Putin smile...Not very convenient, is it... But since it's for "freedom and democracy" it must be OK...

Here is the missing "e".

I will try to compile a list of all conflicts since 1945 where the peace-loving West was the main instigator - sorry, I meant contributor - including the death count.

For now, it seems that in the contest for the top spot on the kill scale, the USSR and Russia will end up as sore losers. Sorry, guys...but I can't lie.

Shall i remind you that the biggest part of the former Konigsberg region belongs today to Poland?

That would be a waste of effort. To Poles here, anything older than three years did not happen. That strangely coincides with Feb 24, 2022, if I got that date correctly.

If you mention Minsk you might as well be talking about the Great Flood.

Yeah i agree, Poles are like golden fish, they all have limited memory capacities...

@Novichok
2 Trillion? Thats all? This spending could easily be cut if anyone with any balls were in the WH and had a majority in the house and senate. The new President of Argentina is showing the way. He is going to deliver what the people want and has proven the left wing ideology and practices do nothing but ruin countries. Look what democracy of the left did for Argentina. It will take someone tough enough to tell the lobbyists to FO. Warrent Buffet's idea for congress are nice too, dont reduce the deficit, you are not able to be re-elected.

I have a better idea...Vote for deficit and get executed right there in the basement before the sun goes down. Why ruin the House carpet...


Easy, PAK...What about that song chicks love so much?

I was thinking about the Armenia-Azerbaijan thing Bobko but couldn't remember the details and I do know that it first flared up around 1990. At the time I remember people saying they would be hundreds of such little wars in the former USSR, and there were conflicts like Chechnya and Moldova. By the mid 90s all of these were frozen however

@cms neuf

I enjoy how all the points I made that proved Western duplicity were ignored by you.

Oh well, I suppose I will have to wait until Israel does another land grab, or kills some several thousands of children, to bring this up again.

Yesterday Azerbaijan, today Israel, tomorrow there will be something else.

Yet I'm sure you will continue to bask in your fascistic sense of superiority over Russian untermenschen.

Russophobia is a mental illness, which can have serious complications.

Hey, cymes, cut the crap and concentrate on the real wars. This is where the freedom and democracy-loving West wins hands down.

Under this rule, Budapest and Prague were just noise. On the plus side, both proved that overwhelming force is good at keeping the death count low. In both cases, the hotheads went to hell and the average national IQ moved up.

The soviet penchant for horrible borders peaked in that area, guaranteeing that both sides would be at each others' throats and guaranteeing the soviets/russians the role of peacemaker.....

In the early 90s Armenia more or less kicked Azeri forces out of an area of Azerbaijan with a strong Armenian majority.... As much as I dislike Azerbaijan (who made a national hero out of a guy who killed a random Armenian for no reason apart from being Armenian) the recent take back of the area is in line with internationally agreed borders.

Now if either country were remotely rational they could work out a deal with some degree of autonomy but the soviets ruined any diplomatic capability anywhere they befouled with their presence so.... no to that.

The problem now is that Azerbaijan is split in two parts by.... Armenia and the fear is that it will invade to try to annex a corridor to the Nakchivan exclave (think Królewiec but landlocked).

And Armenia is very upset at russia for not stopping Azerbaijan from ethnically cleansing Nagorno-Karabakh and russia's sad little make believe pretend version of NATO is now dead in the water.....

"... I will pinch my nose, because hating Russia is altogether more important. Plus, it hurts the integrity of my constructed thesis."

Viva Azerbaijan! A "Tausendjähriges Reich" for these brave Azeris! One Folk, one Reich, one Ilham Aliev!

Let not one Armenian escape the wrath of the noble Azeri Reich! Heil Aliev!

@Novichok
Imagine the end of the IRS, Department of Education, and a few others. The salary savings alone. Then imagine a flat tax of 10%. Any congressman or senator who doesnt vote it in gets impeached. Thats what I am talking about. Tear the BS system down to the bones that it was meant to be.

@Bobko
Not ignoring your points, honestly didnt know the details because they werent covered by US press. Thanks for informing.

:D

Is the West really on the Azeri side? My sympathies lay fully with the Armenians. Especially that they were f*cked over by both their enemies and their "allies" (reminds me of something), and they are Christians fighting the Muslim hordes. How can a Pole not be on their side?

Anyways, regarding moral superiority and all that, if Poland perceived Ukraine as an existential threat, and if Ukraine took hostile actions towards us, and we had the means to invade them and teach them a lesson... well... I would really like to think that we would restrain ourselves and resolve the conflict peacefully. However, there is this disquieting voice inside me (yes, I know, it's worrying to hear voices) that tells me that we would probably make love to every figurative orifice in their figurative body.

Luckily, it's only a hypothetical situation, so I can retain my moral high ground... you slant-eyed, Asian barbarian. ;)

I really don't know.

Many of the early Patristic texts were written by Armenian-born Fathers.

Armenia is among the oldest Christian nations on Earth.

Armenia is small, devoid of natural resources, and surrounded by enemies.

How does Poland support Azerbaijan again?

Actually, they are the oldest Christian nation in the world. They were the first country to adopt Christianity as their state religion in 301 (Pawian was only a small boy back then) and they stayed brave and resilient, surrounded by enemies (again, reminds me of something).


I hope we don't! That would be extremely odd.

Jaysus, PolAm...


Well, that's what they said about Ukraine too, one day before the invasion.

YOU DO!

So do your less geographically curious masters in Washington and Brussels.

However, even they are experiencing some serious schizophrenia. Macron especially... he's made a lot of contradictory statements. I suspect what informs his position is the fact that there are many, many extremely wealthy French-Armenians - and on the other hand, the Washington spymasters which insist that whatever is bad for Russia is good for us.


Comparing Ukraine to the Baltic Emirates, is as Russians say - to "compare an anal sphincter with a finger."