Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 10

Truth.

Never forger that western European dominance started with Athens and Rome that had extended relationships with Egyptians. I don`t speak from the racist point of view. I just state that degeneracy in Europe isn`t original trait of European culture. No. It was introduced by few greedy bastards that seized the power in one moment of history and molested other Europeans ie Sarmatians ie Slavs first and then rest of the world.

But, now we Slavs stooping them.

Bobko, ask them why Russia would want Poland.
Would Poland want Lithuania?

Its not the same.

Poland is victim itself. Poles helped us a lot of thru history. We are one with them. We must save Poland. Somehow.

My point is that Russia wants Poland as much as I want a cobra for a pet.

My point is that Poland deserve saving. It`ll be fine, as all of us, when sources of evil are distinguished.

I clearly see, its what ancestors desire. Suffering would be great in Serbia if Poland is lost.

I agree. Hopefully, Poland will learn from this war the price of being friends with the wrong people. Z made this mistake. Now his country is close to extinction along with 600,000 dead and 3x wounded. That elusive "freedom and democracy" is expensive.

I didn't.

I said that IF we establish that probability of Russian attack is over 90%, then it makes perfects sense to strike first.


Not a front collapse - it would be too late then - but very high probability of the front collapsing soon. This, coupled with over 90% certainty of Russian invasion of Poland after conquering Ukraine, would force Poland to enter the war on Ukrainian side. That's why the numbers you gave worried me.

It's about strategic depth (mostly) and also certain asymmetry in the nature of Russian and Polish armed forces.


Most wars do not start because people are evil, dobri brate. Bobi's not evil, I am not evil, even Kostya is not evil; but it may very well come to pass that we will go into war against each other (well, not Bobi because he's in the US and not Kostya because his knees are weak, but I meant figuratively). Wars start because of coincidence of circumstances which makes certain events inevitable. In case of Poland and Russia - with the assumption of above 90% Russian invasion certainty - the near collapse of Ukrainian front would have to trigger off the war between us. Zugzwang. I believe I explained why in the outline of the war scenario.

@Novichok

Well said.


Sure. I understand. That is exactly why I said, I asked, Poland deserve saving. Somehow, Russia have to find way. Soldiers on front? They are walking dead.


You avoided truth.

For this situation don`t blame Russia. Blame Rome and western Europe.

I was telling them a couple days ago, that in some regards Poland is a nicer prize than Ukraine, but this still doesn't mean Russia would invade Poland.

First and foremost, as you correctly point out, this is because it would be a nightmare of an occupation.

You don't have to be a specialist on Poland to know they're not big fans of Russia. In past "occupations" Poles were always more or less autonomous. That's the only way to keep them "inside".

Let them run their own affairs, so long as they act as effective buffer against the West.


This. Can you explain this?

Don't you think we'll be utterly exhausted by the time we are in Western Ukraine (if that ever even happens)?

... a kto umarł, ten nie żyje...




I don't. I understand (to some extent) why Russia does what she does.

@Torq

Belgrade will find way. I assure you.

An interesting quote by the new Russian Minister of Defence Andrey Belousov, that I believe is germane to our discussion:

"By preserving traditional values of the West, which are originally the values of Western Christian European civilization, Russia can become a guardian of these values. This may seem like a paradoxical idea, but it is nonetheless true. Therefore, it is incorrect to say that the West is our enemy."

Certainly.


I wouldn't say utterly but, yes, you will be exhausted. You won't stop with Ukraine though--that wouldn't make sense. You will come back to your old demands of NATO withdrawing behind the Oder river and will want to run things (or at least influence them heavily) in Poland again. We can't have that. You also explained to me some time ago that the wheels of anti-Polish propaganda are turning so strongly that Russia doesn't even have any sensible offer for us (commensurate to our value and potential). We hear either threats or insults from Moscow; threats don't scare us, insults don't touch us, but it all puts us in this damn zugzwang. We have no option left really.

So, going back to this coming war between us -- the time would come when Ukraine falls, then after about 3 years of передышка (and maybe not even that), you will become a serious threat to Poland again. When the war comes we will have to fight on Polish land. In such case, we cannot very well start defending at the borders because you have panzer/artillery army, and you artillery would massacre us. We observe this war with caution and we can see that you have good technical/engineering capabilites but, first and foremost, excellent artillery. Sure, we are buying artillery like crazy but still we must assume that we would be at a disadvantage here, especially that we would have to concentrate huge numbers of artillery, practically all of HIMARS etc. to be able to blow Kaliningrad off the face of the earth as a response to your nuclear attack against one of our cities. In general, we could probably sustain 5-6 big nuclear strikes and still keep fighting but here comes the entire question of escalation ladder and possible NATO response but I don't want to go into detail on this. I mentioned it cursorily before, it's a complicated issue. Luckily for us, where you lead decisively in artillery, we lead decisively in infantry; our infantry is poetic and legendary and the defence of towns and cities that we would put up would amaze the world. Plus we have good electronic reconnaisance/drone capabilites which would give us a lot of advantage.

So, we would have to do pretty much what Ukrainians do (according to, without bragging, our ANW blueprint) but - unfortunately - we lack their strategic depth. That's a huge bummer. Germany might act as our deep strategic background but history and the aching pain in our anuses taught us valuable lessons, so for the purpose of my scenario I assume 0% NATO reaction and 0% USA reaction. We would have to fight alone. Our chances? If we are honest, I'd say 40-45%. If NATO/US decide to react at a higher rate than 0%, then of course our chances rise, but I'm not counting on that.

Russia's mistake, I believe, was that you attacked too early. You should have kept trading with the EU, exert huge influence on European matters, get rich, strengthen you armed forces and wait for about 20-30 years more until guys like me are either dead or no longer fit for military service. Then you could walk over the young snowflakes with much ease. Alas, for you, we are still here and still in a rather good shape.

Sorry, if it's all a bit chaotic. I'm an amateur strategist - I bet the professionals are thinking like crazy and have something much better in their drawers. They most likely do, seeing that PAD had the temerity to tell Putin not to sh*t himself ha ha ;)


Yes, but you don't consider Poland to be part of the West - курица не птица, польша нет заграница, and all that.

My nightmare scenario: Russians and Serbs leaving this forum...

... and that's why, to avoid this scenario of fighting Russia on Polish land without a lot of much needed strategic depth, we would be forced to reinforce the Ukrainian front. The only logical option really if Russia keeps insisting on going back to "good old days" and regaining her old zone of influence.


It would be a shame.

If I were a Polish PM or president, I would call Putin and ask him to meet me in Minsk. My first question would be: Is invading Poland in your plans?

Most likely Putin would say: That depends...

Me: What do we Poles have to do to make sure that your plans do not include invading Poland?

I am just a simple guy who likes when things are simple...

Well, Duda already told Putin not to sh*t himself, so that option is not available. Tusk? Hmm... maybe... but any deal with Russia would have to mean us sh*tting on Ukrainians and they have been dying for us for over two years now, so that's hardly an option. We may be a bunch of motherf*ckers but we are not THAT big motherf*ckers.


:)

You're like a child, Novi.


Alas, sometimes they are not simple.

Why would our President fly to a ******** like Minsk to kowtow to a thieving murderer and a liar and act as though we are scared of them.

Poland and North Nigeria are something like equals - they are no longer our big brothers

...who learned quickly that asking and talking has no downside. That's how I met my future wife in 1969.

Z refused to talk to Putin because the mature men from the US and the UK told him not to.

Do you want me to say again the results of that refusal?


Go to your sandbox. We will call you when the desert is served.

The Estonian government is seriously considering sending its troops to western Ukraine - Breaking Defense citing the security adviser to the republic's head of state, Madis Rolla

The publication notes that Estonian troops would have to perform "logistics support" tasks for the AFU, freeing more fighters to be sent to the front.

Madis Roll said the executive branch is currently analyzing the potential move, and while he said Estonia would prefer to take any such step as part of a full NATO mission - "to demonstrate broader unified strength and resolve" - he did not rule out Estonia operating as part of a smaller coalition.

"Discussions are ongoing We must consider all possibilities. We must not limit ourselves in what we can do," he said at the presidential palace on May 10.

He also emphasized that it was "not impossible" that NATO countries opposed to such a move would change their minds "over time."

It seemed to me that suicidal sentiments would be the first to peak in Latvia..... But Estonia will do too. We have to start somewhere to return what we bought for a lot of money in 1721....

Great, but things are not simple anymore.

I am going to assume that Article 5 can be invoked only if a NATO state is attacked.
If a NATO state decides to walk into the bear's cage, that state loses the right to invoke A5.


Things are simple. Z listened to J, ignored P, and 600,000 men paid for this with their lives.

Another irritating thing about you Russians. Always with those primitive threats.

You basically behave like typical mobsters and then are shocked to learn people don't want anything to do with you.

The only unsolved territorial claims between Russia and Ukraine are a result of unlawful annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and later unlawful annexations of four Ukrainian oblasts by Russia in 2022.

Prior to this Russia recognized Ukraine in its 1991 borders.

No country can fear secure in the vicinity of Russia - which is willing to unilaterally manufacture territorial conflicts and later act on them. Hence the general willingness to join NATO to prevent such a scenario.

For Russia it's an entirely self-inflicted wound. You bully your neighbours, they will finally join a mutual defence pact aimed to protect themselves from you.

Iraq was not in the vicinity of the US and thousands of Iraqis went to heaven - with the Polish "army" as useful idiots and a useless ornament on the coalition tree of shame.

The US is now in the process of stealing Russia's assets and thus sending notice to the civilized world that BRICKS may be right about the safety of deposits in the thieves' banks.

No country can feel secure when its money is in Western banks.


Do you mean that Kenedy's threats were primitive, too, or did you assume that the US was as serious as the heart attack when it told the Soviets to get the fvck back or else...

Or are you 12 so you don't have a clue what I am talking about ...

Well, the USA, EU, NATO and western Europe mostly do seams to be more professional regarding threats. More fit. To them, Russians are like amateurs.

Neighbour lease territory in a nearest vicinity to our border and in easy reach to objects of strategic importange for military base of hostile alliance. It is well enough to say GFY to someone who forgot that we now live in "rules based world" (as anglos tell everybody now) instead of the world where international laws exists.

Rule #1 (classified) apply.

Those threaten to advance "freedom and democracy" so it's OK.

We learning quickly...

Of course. They didn't just threaten you, they also whipped you. Now you threaten and bang them, they complain. Maybe Russians needs to choose words. Or, not to speak too much and just drop something somewhere and then to speak.

Don't overdo it. Sophistry can be deadly...See Vietnam...