Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 17

The latest maps are out. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2024

Ukraine is nit advancing on a single area of the front lines and are being pushed out of the limited Russian land they captured. On top of that there are now photos of Russia shipping out all of its equipment from Syria. I wonder how quickly thats integrated into Ukraine. With just over a month before Trump takes office, and his man Kellogg planning a trip to Ukraine, Russia is going to make a big push to gain as much land as possible. Z missed his window to make a better deal IMO.

@PolAmKrakow

Do you believe that Ukraine should have accepted Russian demands? Ceding (significantly) more territory to Russia, demilitarize (in other words becoming defenseless) and agree to neither join NATO nor the EU? Because those are the conditions Russia has persistently said are needed to be accepted by Kiev before negotiations can even start.

No but they should have at least officially maintained lines of communication, instead of passing some dumb law that it was illegal to negotiate with putin. mistake after mistake from an incompetent ukraine goverment, they even pissed of our foreign minister sikorsk by berating him about wołyni which as a ukraine hawk takes some doing.

@Tacitus
The deal back in March of 2022 was they only would have lost Crimea. They were still free to join the EU, but not NATO. Yes, they should have accepted it. Instead, Z will lose a lot more land, and tens of thousands of Ukraine lives. Thats the definition of fvcking retarded. Stupid is to include NATO in your constitution when no one in NATO invited Ukraine. Stupid is blocking the Russian language, Russian church and political parties. That is called a dictatorship. Beyond stupid is refusing to even talk to Russia or negotiate when they are killing a generation of Ukraine men.

Is it?

It may sound pragmatic to a far away ear, and the current generation....but think it through, PolAm. Put yourself in the shoes of any Ukrainian....maybe only a few years later, when he has to learn that his gov has given up such an important part of the country (Crimea isn't nothing)....has bowed down, folded so easily before the russian agressor (yes, such demands from any neighbour is an attack for any country)....would this deal still hold in the long term? Wouldn't that rather sow the seeds for future strife and discontent and resistance? Civil war maybe? Another voted in leader who promises it's people to "get it all back"?

Just try to imagine that happening to your Heimat, PolAm...some neighbour putting up demands for territory, allowing/forbidding you important decisions, so important for any self-calling independent country like joining a Union....should your gov just follow? Just nod and subscribe? Or do you want it to fight like any upstanding, self respecting country? No matter the outcome....

Be honest! :)

@Bratwurst Boy
I understand the points you are making. They are valid. But only for a length of time where you can actually fight. The time to negotiate was after Ukraine took back all that territory in 2023, when Russia was on its heals.

I do imagine it happening here in Poland. And for that reason, I would like to see Ukraine neutral and a buffer for this country. Putin will die eventually, and thats when a new level of political work can begin. It is better to live and plan to fight another day than to fight because you dont want to give up. In war, in life, you pick your battles. Smart people know which battles are worth fighting. The majority of Ukraine people want the war to end, and their voices are being ignored. Thats not leadership, that is arrogance of another level.

I would agree with that....but that was also part of the point I tried to make. NOW, the majority of the Ukrainians will probably prefer peace....after two years of brave fighting and quite an upstanding defense (after all Putin's plan had been "in 6 weeks in Kiev").

Now....after a good, hard fight, any negotiation is acceptable for more and more people, and there is nothing to be ashamed about! But immediately at the beginning? With not one russian boot even on ukrainian land? With not even one shot fired? Without even trying to defend themselves?

I don't think so!

They can't "live to fight another day" because Putler's demand is that Ukraine demilitarize and don't join NATO

Under such circumstances it will be a carbon copy of when the UNNR's allies in Nazi Germany took over the whole of Czechoslovakia in 1939.

You are showing us the same map as always, with the NNs stuck in the same place

How do yoi think the NNs can get their crappy rusty ass tanks from Syria to Ukraine ? The only open route is via the Red Sea and then all the way round to Vladivostok - it will take months

Talking of shipping I see another NN tanker is sinking this morning.

You claim to run a business yet are ignorant of an unrealistic opening position in negotiations? the other side does the same and slowly they reach the middle. (in this case will involve lots of vodka and talk of same universities their dads went too or distant cousins)

@cms neuf
He is not demanding anything other than no NATO. Ukraine can and will have a small army and security from other countries. Any other Russian war in Ukraine would essentially involve all of Europe.

@Bratwurst Boy
Again, I partly agree. But give that message to the widows and fatherless children and it will fall on deaf ears. I dont gaf about the idea of fighting for democracy honestly. I care about people getting killed in a war they cannot and could never win. I would like to see my friends and colleagues again. The only thing Ukraine can do now is continue to lose territory and lives. That is not worth the fight.

Would the North Nigerians be allowed to use the Suez canal for weapons shipments? I doubt the Saudis would be keen on that being used by ships which could accidentally get lost or need urgent repairs and then while in a Houthi-controlled port offload military equipment. So it's the Cape route for them. But will Indonesia let those boats into their waters? I doubt it, so they'll need to round Australia and head up the Tasman Sea!

Anyone relaying on that would be a bloody fool

@PolAmKrakow


A deal that was never entertained seriously by Russia.


All a reaction to the Russian invasion. And well justified, given what we now know about Russia using those organizations as preparation for its' invasion.


Except all of his possible successors are known to harbour the same delusions of imperial grandeur. Everyone else has been purged. Besides as historians have pointed out in the last 3 years, Russia has not really changed its' policies towards Ukraine under Putin. Jelzin was already very vindictive towards Kiev and tried to undermine its' independence. There is no reason to expect a fundamentally different approach from a future Russian leader, unless he is forced to by a Russian defeat.


That is simply not true. Something I have observed from those who propose that Ukraine should surrender now (because that is what this ultimately boils down to) is that they seem to have an idea of Putin and what he wants that is in complete contradiction to reality. Putin made his demands very clear. Annexation of further territories, demilitarization, installation of a puppet regime ("denazification) and no NATO. You can't just pick one demand and ignore all the rest because they negate your ideas of things should turn out. It would be great if Putin was the kind of politician who'd be satisfied with a limited win and call it a day. But that is not how he behaved until now. Whenever he got a limited win, he came back later for more. Any deal made must be made under the understanding that Russia will break it the minute it thinks it could get even more.


Ukraine can win this war in the same way Finland can "won" the winter war. With a loss of territory, but in a state that allowed it to survive as an independent state. Back then, the Soviet Union demanded less territory before it invaded than what it ultimately received. Yet the consensus amongst historians is that if Finland had accepted Soviet demands and ceeded those (heavily defensive) territories, it would have been attacked anyway later on. But then it would have been in a much worse position. The way things went allowed Finland to put up a strong enough fight to make Stalin reconsider his plans. Ukraine suffers every day, yet by making the Russians bleed for every meter they take, they increase their odds of surviving beyond the next few years.

@Tacitus
Nice waay of looking at it without actually digging into the human side and the costs families are paying. Political agenda's mean little when your families are killed because of them. I am sure there are thousands of Ukraine people who would gladly live under Russian rule if they could have their family members back. Ukraine is being used by the EU and US to weaken Russia because NATO didnt bother to strengthen itself for thirty years, because the EU refused to strengthen itself for 30 years, and because the EU was too busy sucking Vlad off for cheap gas. So now, Ukraine men have to die for the general stupidity of Europe?

All the Russia is bad and evil talk is without debate. So why TF hasnt Poland done anything until the war started to boost its military spending? Why hasnt Germany done anything? The UK, France and the rest really are just a bunch of little dogs barking.

Ukraine is not going to be a part of NATO. Its not happening. They will lose most of their most valuable land. The will lose most of their most valuable natural resources, and they will lose the largest nuclear power plant in the world. All this because they did not prepare and Europe did not prepare. Dont think a lot of this aid isnt now out of feeling guilty for not doing more sooner.

Got a better way, genius?

Sadly for the NNs, the Cape Route is not straightforward - they are already unable to refuel in Spain or Italy and after that they will be reliant on the goodwill of African dictators, including the actual Nigerians.

Most of these guys know that Putler is yesterdays man and are unlikely to open up their ports to the drunk NB sailors (who without access to dollars are in any case unlikely to be welcomed by the local hookers and barkeeps)

But you forgot to mention that now Ukraine can join the EU.

Russia doesn't mind. America doesn't mind. It's only up to Europe to now hang this new albatross around its neck.

In a way, you could argue that with this, Ukraine has achieved its ultimate victory. The origins of the current war, go all the way back 2012, and the negotiations surrounding an EU Association Agreement.

Now, 13 years later, Ukraine has finally won! Everyone accepts it is their right to join the EU, and it is the European obligation to pump them full of billions of dollars as recompense for trying to flush them down the toilet on two separate occasions.

It should be doable. In 2004, when Poland and nine other countries joined the EU, it expanded by approximately 75 million people. There's around 42 million Ukrainians, knocking about Ukraine, the Schengen Zone, the US/Canada, and Russia.

Should be easy enough for you to digest. Poles especially should be supportive, as current recipients of Western handouts themselves. It would be a very ugly look for Poland to behave hypocritically and create issues for Ukraine's accession.

The GDP per capita of Germany is $52,000 (compared to $82K in the US).

The GDP per capita of Poland is $22,000 (compared to $14K in Russia).

The GDP per capita of Ukraine is $5,500 (compared to $6K in South Africa).

In 2004, Poland's GDP per capita was $6,600 (compared to $4,100 in Russia, and $10,300 in Hungary).

Given that Poland is substantially smaller than Ukraine, was already richer in 2004 than Ukraine is now, and still received $300B of EU structural and cohesion funds... I conservatively predict a $500B price for catching Ukraine up.

The rich countries like the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, and Italy probably saved 5X that amount by not investing in defense over the last twenty years. Half a trillion dollars should be peanuts.

Another win for Ukraine, is that this war has put them on the world map in a big way.

No longer will people confuse Ukrainian prostitutes with Russian ones.

As Zelensky says - Ukraine is destined to be great!

One of your most endearing traits is this subtle kind of sarcasm only your long-term followers can detect instantly...

For the benefit of lesser readers...Poland will shlt a brick...There is only so much German taxpayers will be able to throw into the cage to keep the hyenas happy...

What Ukraine will get, Poland won't.

This last sentence is meant for PF retards.

Memo to cymes, kutas, and Taci:

Stick around. PAK and Bobko need PF idiots to explain things to. It's tediuos and revolting but I am glad somebody is here to do it. It's like a rectal examination.

I so wish!

*crosses fingers and spits over shoulder*

We truly saved so much money on defense and cheap energy in the recent years....now everybody and his grandmom in Germany is wondering where all that money has gone...definitely not invested in infrastructure or modern future tech, digitalization, schools or anything else usable and much needed!

Shhhhhh!

THIS IS A SECRET!

Anyway, Poland is too rich now to be benefiting from charity. Time to make space for others.


Get your wallet ready, you fat German plutocrat.

After the first $200-300B, Ukraine will come for "reparations".

Kaczynski will seem like Mahatma Gandhi in comparison.

Not so fat no longer....:)

What? Your printers stopped working?

If so, ours churn out 100s day and night so you can leave yours as they are.

Back to the stupid...I can't imagine PF without its village idiots...When is the next feeding time?

What I need badly is more LGBTs..The war is getting old...

In other times they could have worked their passage home by doing a spot of mercenary work here and there in Africa, but right now all the wars are inland rather than in coastal. I suppose they could try allying with the pirates around Somalia, but even Russian troops would probably be able to understand that the only possible conclusion of that partnership is better-equipped Somali pirates and better-fed fish (or pigs).

Perhaps the junta in Burma needs staff? Or do the resistance hold the coast there now?

Are you serious man? I just spelled it out for you, except the last piece.

It's clear that the funds not spent on defense, and that could have been spent at home, were instead sent to Brussels and then East.

Poland alone is $300B (€250B). Then there's the not-so-small Romania, Hungary, and even Portugal. Plus a bunch of tiny guys.

America's been spending $500-900B a year on stupid adventures around the world. It gives you a hard time for not spending enough on the military, but doesn't take into account that you haven't exactly been spending it all on yourselves either.

America plowed several trillion dollars into Afghanistan and Iraq, you plowed around a trillion into the ten new Eastern members. Your investment is much better, since you at least gained new consumers, new markets, cheap labor. What America got was tens of thousands of amputees, and a fresh wave of hate from the Islamic world.

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Somali pirates are not pirates at all.

They are migrants who found a short way to the US and Western Europe...Attack a mil ship, get arrested, serve 6 months, and celebrate new life the day they are released with all the docs and 10,000 bucks to open a mall stand with Somalian trinkets...

Though it seems like Ukraine in the EU is not a problematic issue for Russia or America, there's some less obvious reasons why it may also not work.

Besides securing the buy-in of the rich f*cks who are supposed to pay for the bill, there also has to be a way of explaining it to the other bozos that have been patiently sitting in the waiting room for decades.

The most famous case is of course Turkey. Turkey has been an applicant since 1987, when Ukraine didn't even exist yet. Every year the EU comes up with new excuses on why they can't join. Nobody wants to say out-loud that the real reason is that nobody wants 85 million Muslims joining the Christian-majority union. Somebody will have to explain to the Turks why Ukraine is getting in before them.

The next group of people to be butthurt if Ukraine joins are the Balkans. Some of these fellas, like North Macedonia, have been waiting to join since 2005. The Albanian Prime Minister complained that getting destroyed in a war and being turned into an economic basketcase is seemingly more effective than diligently pushing through the necessary reforms.

So you got some problems with quickly accepting places like the Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. Now I understand, and other smart people understand, that these members are important because peeling them away from Russia will weaken it long term. Hurting Russia, is a worthy end in and of itself, and no price is too high for this. But how do you explain to the Turks and Balkans that weakening Russia is more important than them joining the European family?

Hmm... will require some acrobatics.

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There is no way that Ukraine will be admitted to the EU in the foreseeable future. Unless they will go even more crazy in Brussels than they are now.

I will say it out loud...We want our share of that disappearing species known as virgins.

With Muslims hogging 72 virgins each, what the fvck is left for Christians? Used virgins?

You are breaking Zelensky's heart...

First - no NATO.

Now - no EU.

You Westerners are real sadists.