Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22

russia is a KL_PT_CR_C_

wanna buy a vowel?

It's why so many russians live in desperate poverty while congratulating themselves for being a 'great' empire....

russian governments steal... that's it.

After Bucha and Mariupol, here's the world's smallest violin 🎻

It was a clever one. Every little bit helps.

Bobko you know very well what happens to a million dollars or so in the military procurement system - straight to Cyprus.

I don't believe this about the trucks - it is more likely to be long range drones

nah theres footage

x.com/maria_avdv/status/1929160619741118671/video/4

There's already videos. Civilians captured the attack in progress. Drones taking off by the dozen from out of a truck, with a burning tarp cover. Ukraine's intelligence agency has confirmed already the nature of the attack.

Furthermore, it seems they used Russian FPV drones, sourced from Russian volunteer groups. They didn't even need to smuggle drones into Russia. They hit our bases with our own drones, that our own people sent thinking it was for the front.

No amount of border checks can screen for that.

The way control was maintained from Ukrainian territory was by a satellite retransmitter.

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The first picture below, is the "American"-type of shelter we were in the process of building.

The second and third photos, are photos of Syrian hardened shelters. Compared to what we have, we could only dream of such impressive structures. Yet, during Trump's Tomahawk strike, they failed to protect several jets. Some people said it was because the blast doors were left open, but in some photos you can see that the missile penetrated directly through the roof - despite all the soil and concrete.

Last photo is a Swiss "aircraft cavern". The Swiss have literal runways inside mountains. Now that's protection!

Anyhow... everyone is now very curious if the Russian MoD will get up from its ass and actually build some protection for these aircraft, some of which cost north of $150M a piece.

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Despite everything - hats off to the Ukrainians. Absolutely brilliant attack.

Hope they're ready for the response that won't be long in coming.

Also, I think every government around the world is now "thanking" Ukraine. People responsible for security at Heathrow, JFK, CDG, etc - now have to x-ray every single truck in a mile radius.

Just joking. Everything's fine.

Bobko, you know that I love Russia but suspending the death penalty after a speedy trial was a really dumb idea.

We don't use it often enough but at least we have it in a number of states as well as for federal cases.


A repeat of Vietnam-style escalation... This is a blunder that allows the enemy to control events.

Whatever Russia is capable of, why not do it BEFORE the damage like this...

It's like the police rules in here...The bad guy always has fire first...Insanity...

The volunteers would have thought they are sending drones to Russian units fighting in Ukraine. Not sure there was criminal intent.

In any case, this theory may have already been disproven. The Ukrainian SBU just started laying out photos, and it seems the drones may have been Ukrainian in origin after all.

The trucks transported "mobile homes". Homes made out of shipping containers, that can be erected into a house for someone to live in. The "homes" had roof hatches that were designed to be opened remotely. When the trucks arrived at the destination, the roofs on the "mobile homes" were lifted and the drones emerged.

SBU claims the operation was being planned over more than 1.5 years. Every person involved in the operation is already in Ukraine, and so anyone that the Russian authorities arrest and put on a show trial is some poor muppet (according to them).

Photos attached, courtesy of Ukrainian SBU.

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Just goes to show the large disparity of ressources between the Russians and Ukrainians.

The Russians can still somewhat afford to be careless, while a similar mistake would have absolutely crippled the Ukrainian air force. The Ukrainiana have to stay sharp, and each devastating strike they land is only allowing them to continue the fight.

Considering that neither of our strategic bombers is currently in production - this is actually quite a big problem indeed. For the state at large.

For aircraft manufacturers, it's probably a dream come true. They've been trying to kill these aircraft and sell the government a new boondoggle for many years. But similarly to the American B-52 and B-1 they've been flying for longer than most Russians have been alive.

After today's events, the government HAS to issue new orders to the manufacturers, and it's gonna be sooo expensive. They're gonna come up with a thousand investments they need to make, before being able to even tackle the job.

That lone action or the whole strategy?

They now know what works! And how...

Any such thing you can only do once or twice. The results have to be correspondingly spectacular.

Don't worry too much. 18 months ago or more or since they may well have planned a few things. A very ingenious people.


In fact yes, worry.

The North Nigerian response is coming soon

Burn down an old shopping mall in Belgium
Turn off the lights in Scotland for a few hours
Delay some trains in Italy

Russia started to terrorize way more Ukrainian civilians expecting them to capitulate to their suicidal ultimatum. What happened is that the western partners finally allowed Ukraine to fight back without a hand in their backs. How many billions did Russia lost just with this attack? If Russia just had accepted the cease fire with no strings attached, they wouldn't be taking such heavy loses.

What a special kind of disaster is this special operation proving to be for Russia! I wonder if maybe, just maybe, some people in Russia's decision circles are beginning to ask themselves if this wasn't such a special idea after all.

If Russia is anything like Poland - stubborn, illogical, and unwilling to admit defeat - she will now do something spectacularly stupid.

Suwałki Gap! Here they come!

My bet would be the Baltics.

....please not Berlin...we have only cellars here in my 'hood....no bunkers at all! :(

Berlin's safe. Putin doesn't want to ruin relationships with Turkey at the moment, so he won't touch a city with 200,000 Turkish population. I bet you never suspected that all those Turks would eventually turn out to be so useful, eh? ;)

Never!

But...you said so yourself :

....If Russia is anything like Poland - stubborn, illogical, and unwilling to admit defeat....

...it's the illogical part which troubles me!

Supposedly they've spent a lot of time trying to convince TACO that Narva is really a russian city.... That would be an obvious and incredibly stupid gambit...

Well, perhaps Bobko and I were wrong about Russia and Poland being extraordinarily similar deep inside. Here's hoping, fingers crossing, and knocking on wood.


I am not saying anything. Predictions that I make on this board have this annoying tendency to become reality, so I am now sh*tting the f*ck up.

Meaning a loss of Kalinigrad, meaning a strategic loss of Saint-Petersburg.

russians and Poles are not very similar... when's the last time that you heard about Poles being afraid to protest?

since when do Polish people just hunker down and accept that the government should make decisions and not take their well-being into account?

In the 1945-1989 period. There were only 6 major waves of protest in 44 years - so, on average, only once in seven years did Poles rise to protest against their rulers. Remember that Russians live under a very similar totalitarian regime that Poles did between '45 and '89.

Also, those who will decide on how to retaliate are not Russian peasants but Russian elites - as I said: stubborn, illogical and unwilling to admit defeat. But hey, this time I would be absolutely delighted to be wrong, for a change.

That's always the best bit. It wins wars, avoids revolutions, cause scientific leaps, and creates great art.


Stock up on dry goods.


You don't need me to tell you that those protests were at the risk of getting shot, not just fined or tear gassed.

What for?

If the sh*t hits the fan, the missus and the kids are flying to Canada, and I will get my dry goods at my unit's barracks.

You wait and wait while all the diplomacy goes on and then it suddenly starts and then escalates in the blink of an eye.

No worries. I have it all figured out - plan A, B and even C.

F*ck the dry goods. Family will get them in Canada, I will get mine from the army.

Any other tips?