USA News and Poland - part 19

I'm.... not sure.

My family members call me, and ask me the same.

-//-

The fact is - the American economy is amazingly robust. It's unbelievable...

Jay Powell, and other involved people say as much. It's astounding how strong the economy is.

The economy keeps bailing Trump out.

The AI boom and consumer strength bailed out Trump during the Tariff Wars.

Now, super efficient and productive oil & gas producers in the Permian and Marcellus and Bakken are bailing him out from high energy prices.

The Strait of Hormuz shutdown, may end up being a net gain for the American economy. I know this sounds grotesque to good people everywhere, but it very well may come to be.

The stock market seems absolutely impervious to whatever Trump does.

Bears like myself, keep arguing this will one day come and bite them in the ass regardless - but we have been wrong for the past... I don't know - 10-12 quarters.

-//-

Basically - the facts are - that this war is much, much, much more damaging to East Asia and Europe than it is for the United States. It's absolutely lethal for South Asia (Pakistan has a 85%+ dependency on Gulf-sourced energy), and Indonesia.

America's losses are all in the moral and political realm.

-//-

America's economy is impervious to high gasoline prices, but the American consumer not so much.

The problem - America's economy has long ago become disconnected from the fate of the average man.

The "average statistical person" in America can keel over and die from hunger, and this will reflect in a 1-2% dip of the S&P 500 the next day, which will be recovered on Monday.

@cms neuf
I am thinking real money not 100 zloty. How much can you stand to lose?

@Bobko
For you any bet would need to be in USD and I would come to NYC to collect. Lets also wager on when Russia will win while we're at it. I used to respect your opinions. Now you are nothing more than the rest who just hope to pick a winner.

We can do USD, JPY, EUR, CHF - whatever you want.

No need to come to New York.

I'll open - or you can - an anonymous crypto wallet, or PayPal account - which will hold the money in escrow, and pay out on expiration.

If you don't trust me - we can appoint CMS Neuf as escrow holder.

-//-

Here's a draft contract for you to study:

• 
  Contract
  

Sure, some form of government will exist unless Iran acquires nuclear weapons and attempts to detonate them in the vicinity of Israel. In that case, Iran would become a desolate wasteland in the blink of an eye, and the rest of civilization could face extinction. Believe me, there is no chance Israel will go to gas chambers voluntarily; they will take the rest of the world with them. So, your contract seems like an anti-Semitic fantasy.

But let's assume you are right. I will take your $10,000 bet without hesitation if you can tell me who you are betting on. Please provide the government officials' names; otherwise, your bet is worthless, a plate of excrement, valued at $10,000.

I laid it all out there.

I described all the niche cases.

That is, that the death of the supreme leader does not qualify - for example.

I have recused myself as arbiter, and am suggesting CMS Neuf. If he is undesirable - tell me who you would prefer instead and we can discuss.

-//-

In brief - I am betting that Iran will still be the "Islamic Republic of Iran" come January 1st, 2027.

The Guardian Council, and the IRGC will still exist. There will still be a theocratic government in place.

I think that's very reasonable.

-//-

In addition to reasonable definitions, I'm giving you a boatload of time. All the way unto the next year.

Personally I don't think that's merited, but I had a suspicion that you guys would try to weasel out of this bet otherwise.

Take a chill pill guys - we all work hard for our money and have lots of mouths to feed

100 zloty or 100 bucks is a reasonable bet

If you want to gamble then bet the farm on Poland screwing up v Albania on Thursday

Did you see this?


I think that for a restaurant owner in Krakow, or a retiree in the MidWest - this is not a life-breaking sum.

Enough to interest them, but not enough to hurt them.

My hope is that it may trigger deeper reflection into the mechanics of what is happening - and the import of it all.

Yes I saw that :) but this is a place where we should be friends or at least demonstrate respect - and big bets always get in the way of that

Some interesting action in the college hoops too - my bracket was bust early on but I fancy St John's to knock off Duke next weekend

Anyway back on topic the US needs to rein in Israel - who are now proposing annexing south Lebanon for safety reasons - where have we heard that before ?

People are waking up, but it's still just the tip of the iceberg. Every time Trump posts on social media, his inner circle of billionaires becomes hundreds of millions of dollars richer - sometimes even more. All within a single day. Illegal insider trading 101.

• 
  Trump's corruption
  

So Trump and Israel started this war for purely altruistic reasons? Give me a break.

Trump doesn't give a sh!t about bombing kids. Even when it was confirmed that US missiles hit that school, he was still trying to deny it, just as he's trying to pass the blame for this sh!tshow onto Hegseth and Mossad now the war's not going the way he thought it would.

One day maybe the scales will fall from your eyes.

Fvck the US and Israel. Warmongering b@stards.

Oh, so now you change your tune

Oh yeah, there will be Iran, not so sure about the Islamic Republic, unless they get even more dumb than they already are, like I stated in the previous post.
Nuclear holocaust, providing a huge portion of the population, is hardcore Islamists, and they go to paradise at the same time, where the hell do you get 72 virgins for each martyr
Hell, again the problem created by greedy Islamists. Sure, there are a few virgins aged 14 and over, mostly dikes, so they will refuse to have sex with the dsesrving
Abdul, resulting in rebellion in paradise, unless they follow the Koran's teachings, mainly practiced by Muhammad, in that case, any child eight years or over would be fair game.
As for your proposed bet, you must think we are as stupid as Golden Moron. Bet without you naming the names of future Iranian government officials, you win 100%
because there will be some form of government, no matter what.

amazing how you have such a grasp of iranian society. from your hovel in white trash usa?

So whenever i visit europe people ask us always about what do we really think like we cant honestly support this president eh. So what do yall think about all that is going on..... last term europe hosted like parades with taughting him with blow up dolls but now nothing eh

Australia doesn't have a president, and "eh" at the end of a sentence is Canadian....

What stupid game are you playing?

Merely trolling, no doubt.

Mocha is an old poster. Not a troll. She does use a lot of mental shortcuts though

She spoke in her own way, and I don't understand why it's so important for her to express her thoughts in a language accepted by you. It seems she's not anti-Trump enough; she doesn't blindly follow social media, which often presents a warped caricature of the Republican presidents, created by CNN and other outlets affected by Trump Derangement Syndrome. Nowadays, it's fashionable to follow the mindless haters.

Joe Biden is often portrayed as a shining example of a great president. According to many, every Republican is a dumb, deranged maniac. I still remember how Ronald Reagan was treated during his presidency, and today he's grudgingly recognized as a great president. Given time, Donald Trump will also be remembered as one of the greatest presidents in history, regardless of the juvenile criticisms directed at him.

Claims to be in Australia and then refers to "o we really think like we cant honestly support this president" ... why would they ask an Australian about a president?

She can live in Australia and be an American. As I said- she is an old poster

And visit Europe.... how cosmopolitan....


How old? Retirement age? Pre- or post-menopausal? Give me a clue....

She was always hungry for life so rhat doesn"t surprise me.


Old enough to post here ovwr 12 years ago and young enough that she makes me feel old.

No, Przelotnyptak.
Biden is the anti- trump, the Everyman.

If your Everyman is an old lecher who likes to feel up kids in front of their parents and whose brain turned to oatmeal.... then maybe.

No, returning to you, Biden seems unaware of his identity or the purpose of his diapers.

Maybe one of Lenka's sock puppets. Notice how she's the one defending the poster while Mocha stays absolutely quiet? Troll thread eh? lol


The worst President in the history of the US...FJB!!!!

Due to their unique perspective, explaining insanity rationally is impossible.

You bore me enough as it is. No need for anothwr account.

Will any of you address the topic?

I can only say that Trump goes from one tremendous success to another. You have no idea how badly he needs success; he is hard at work negotiating with himself.

Biden was well intentioned, but sloppy in execution.

What I think is... that all good things come to an end.

The Roman Republic lasted longer than the American Republic - 2X as long.

Then some very rich (Crassus), very popular (Caesar), and very powerful (Pompey) persons found the Republic too suffocating for their ambitions.

What brought the Republic down:

1) Sulla marching on Rome, and thus breaking an ancient taboo (January 6th)

2) Repeated use of emergency powers (Hello - this White House operates by emergency powers alone)

3) Political violence becoming routine (two attempts on Trump's life)

4) Offices extended beyond traditional limits (this has not happened yet but is being discussed daily).

5) Anti-elite rhetoric, that is portraying institutions as captured by hostile elements (attacking good people like Cicero, the Senate, and even average bureaucrats)

-//-

Rome didn't end with the collapse of the Republic, so will America not end through all this stuff that is happening at the moment.

But it will be a different America, just as it became a different Rome.