Bobko
28 Oct 2023 #841
How so?
In earlier rounds, the Israelis performed only aerial bombardments and limited incursions around the border fence area. They correctly calculated that they had to seriously bruise Hamas, but not attempt to decapitate it.
This time, they imposed on themselves a mission of completely clearing Hamas out of Gaza. First of all, this is impossible. Second, it will involve urban warfare that will make Bakhmut and Mosul look like Disneyland. Third, this will lose them - slowly - all their allies from around the around, except for maybe the United States. Fourth, it will make practically inevitable a continuation of the conflict now on two fronts - with Hezbollah becoming active from the northern direction.
If Israel somehow succeeds in toppling the Hamas regime, it will be left either with the responsibility of running the place as it did in the past, or annexing it entirely. This would place a demographic time bomb under Israel, as it would become only a matter of time before it ceases to be a Jewish state. Demographics are fate, and Arabs make more babies than Jews (except Orthodox Jews).
The best case scenario for Israel, would be Egypt opening the gates and 2M Gazans becoming Egyptian citizens. Then Israel can make itself at home in Gaza, and begin the work of turning it into the Jewish paradise they always believed it could be. Except Egypt will never help the Jews in such a magical way. They maybe signed a peace agreement with them, but they still hold Israel responsible for the illegal occupation. Israel is responsible for those 2M people, whether it likes it or not.
So yes, Israel is pretty globally screwed. It's what happens when a bunch of white people move into an area where they are surrounded on all sides by brown people.