Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades

If you mean no-fly zones then I don't know what Russians would have to do... NATO seems to be completely unwilling to impose those.

My God... I've just read that children's hospital got destroyed by Russians in Mariupol... :((( Maybe it's the one from this video:

Source:

reuters.com/world/mariupol-says-childrens-hospital-destroyed-by-russian-bombing-2022-03-09/

To a large extent the answer to this question lies only in Putin's head. However, one can reasonably guess at his reactions through studying historic precedent and his public statements. Though a Javelin or an NLAW is termed a defensive weapon, there is no reason it cannot be used offensively. At the end of the day, these weapons supplied by third countries will kill Russian soldiers. Yet still, the supply of these systems does not cross the threshold in Russian minds where it would necessitate requalifying those countries supplying these systems as direct participants in the war. The Bayraktar is a different issue, but I suspect that it is being treated as a subject on a parallel track because it's an existing relationship between Ukraine and the system's Turkey-based manufacturer. Putin and Lavrov still threaten Erdogan with all sorts of consequences for continued shipments.

Now, what do we have with the Mig-29? We have a weapons system that when new costs $30M+ per unit, of which Poland - a country many times richer than Ukraine - only itself has a few dozen. Poland is seemingly willing to completely disarm itself, leaving its own air nominally unprotected, and transfer these to Ukraine - effectively raising Ukraine by many positions in the global list of countries by number of deployed combat jets. The gesture in itself, is several magnitudes more serious than transferring dusty anti-tank missiles.

In practical effect, it would seriously complicate Russian efforts at maintaining air superiority. Thankfully, if one is to be honest with himself, the Mig 29 has near zero value in air-to-ground attack. However, it is still a very fast and extremely maneuverable jet, that will complicate operations for Russian tactical bombers and close air support.

As a final point - I'm sure that the NATO side is aware that at this point the Russians have claimed 100s of the Javelins and NLAWs as war trophies. What is to say that Russians cannot at some point get access to the Polish Migs as well? There are probably many curious innovations present on Polish migs that Russians would be interested in studying (upgraded radars, avionics, communication equipment, targeting equipment, etc). Is NATO comfortable with Russians studying weapon systems that are infinitely more complex than a one meter metal tube with a rocket inside?

PS: AntV is correct, it does not have to be a nuclear strike on Poland. It could be a conventional strike against the shipment when it is in transit. A few dead Polish truck drivers, and soldiers escorting the column. Surely, something everyone can close their eyes to eventually if no further escalation follows. Absolutely for certain they would cease supplying any coal, oil, gas, or refined products to Poland. Probably begin targeting Polish businesses and persons in RU, BY, KZ, AR, TJ.

It could also be a singular demonstration meant to show the rest of the Western alliance by what is meant with "serious consequences". For example, a barrage of cruise missiles against a very specific airfield in Southern Poland.

Somehow, your God didn't mind...No miracles...

@Novichok, you're preaching to the choir...

@Bobko, thanks for the exhaustive answer.

Great thread on the two military's involved

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

short story: Russian military has been hollowed out by the usual Russian corruption and stagnation while Ukraine has been preparing.

Putin didn't expect a war and has no idea how to conduct one. He really did think Ukrainians would surrender en masse... that's why the Blitzkrieg was not really a blitzkrieg but a Potemkin simulation of a blitzkrieg

In one important way, Ukraine has already won. Putin's aim was to destroy ' the country of Ukraine' as an idea and now 'the country of Ukraine' as an idea that is and will be stronger than ever. A Russian 'victory' won't change that.

War is hell and Putin is getting desperate by showing his true colors.


Because God is not of the world, only the Atheists live for the world.

Why is it only the American jet fighters that are in question ?
There are other countries that are not in NATO that have fighter jets that they could give to Ukraine.
Why are they not stepping up to the plate ?
Why is the U.S. always left holding the shty end of the stick ?

@Bobko
Your theory with the pro Russian slant does not hold water when less than three weeks ago Putin said publicly he did not want a conflict with NATO and could not win a conflict with NATO. The idea that Putin and Lavrov scare anyone any more with traditional military conflict is laughable. They are losing the war in Ukraine. A strike against any NATO country and you can say goodbye to all of those soldiers in Ukraine. While no one is going into Russia, they will decimate every Russian in Ukraine if it happens and Russia knows this or they would have already done something.

The facts are that Russia, from top to bottom in the military is incompetent. Putin invested and the money was stolen and diverted to others pockets. This is painfully obvious to him now. If anyone should be more afraid of Putin it is those who stole the money who are still in Russia. The money that went to business entities in Africa allegedly building parts for Russia that when investigated, the address's were phone booths. Another example of the depth of incompetence and corruption that is systemic in the Russian system.

On a positive note, a Russian troll was arrested for spreading Russian propaganda. Lets hope they are monitoring this site as well and get the pigs off the streets and out of mommies basement.

Now the US and others are discussing and retired military has recommended sending in more air defense systems which would in effect help with securing the air like a limited no fly zone. I would bet this happens within days.

Well, the US is the only superpower with nukes that can and is willing to defy Russia... And it was Nuland handing out cookies in Kyiv in 2013, so...

Can - yes. Willing - no way! Would you believe we "love life" too?


Excellent question. If they don't have any, they can open a gofundme account and buy some...

@johnny reb
To answer that question it goes back to the other countries not spending enough on the military and being under equipped. The US spends, most of the rest of the world was not, and now they see why the US spends and they are playing catch up. While terrible to say, this war produces on good result. More military spending in NATO and more safety in tighter numbers. The other even better result is an isolated and dying Russia. Go back behind your borders, stay there until you kill Putin and then about five years later we might give you some TV's from Japan.

Maybe we understand "defy" in a different way... It doesn't necessarily mean "getting nuked" or something *sigh*

This is not a computer game. If you attack Russian assets in Ukraine, or even wipe them out - then you can stop guessing if there will be a nuclear response. There will be. First Continental Europe, and if the Anglos still do not get the message - we will have a nuclear Holocaust on our hands.

OK. Hey, Russians, get the fu*ck out of Ukraine or we are going to get really angry.
There...I just did.


To the Russia haters and the world's best strategists PF could assemble - it is.

@Novichok, nothing can compare to your "genius" lol


Fortunately the US is doing more than that :)

@Bobko
And there you just showed your lack of any intelligence. There would not be any nukes because Russia is not going to hit any NATO personnel or property. Putin would have already done so. Putin also can not press a button, he doesn't have one. Not like the "football" in the US. He has to go through 5 other people to launch a nuke, and they will take him out before it happens. Now go home and take a nap and let the adults talk.

Fortunately, with extreme caution. I like the light from the sun more than from any other source. Just like right now...

Hey, Bobko, why do you even bother with this clown?

@Novichok, yes, because, unlike in case of Russia, psychos aren't in charge of the US.

@Novichok
We are hopeful that the next arrest made for spreading Russian propaganda is you. Not even kidding a little.

I will just leave this quote here:

"Stephen Schwartz, an independent nuclear policy consultant, explained in 2018: "Once [the president's] identity is verified, he gives the order and it is transmitted down the chain of command. The chain of command goes from the president through the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and then, if we're using long-range weapons, down through the Strategic Command, then the order is relayed to our forces in the field. It always happens extremely quickly.

As commander-in-chief, the president is the only individual with the authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. The president and another high-ranking official, such as the vice president or secretary of defense, must jointly authenticate the order to use nuclear weapons."

You're really willing to gamble the fate of the planet on Putin's surrounding defying him in a moment of crisis? I think this is more likely with the mental invalid in the White House, where VP Harris and other cabinet members will invoke the 25th Amendment.

Russonazis bomb a children's hospital....

This is the part of Ukraine they supposedly like/want.... have they given up on that idea? If they take over how would they ever rebuild with no money? This seems deeply irrational (I know, I know, Russia.....)

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501587316028153867

@Bobko
Why comment on the US nuclear power when your statements were about Russian nukes. The US will not use nukes, they do not need to. We are talking about Russia bombing a certain southern Poland air base as you put it. They could have, and would have if they had the balls. Putin knows better and he wont and thats why nukes are not even in question. Your praise of Putin will leave you and all the others on the wrong side of history once again.

Russians were doing that in Syria and now they're doing it in Ukraine... It's incompressible for me... This is simply evil...

I've also read that 1300 people were already killed in Mariupol alone...

Sure - if he has a keyboard. Nothing easier.


Hey, English genius, "spreading" means disseminating what already exists. Secondly, I never quote Russian government sources. Third, this is "America" with the 1st, not some Eurosh*ithole with hate speech rules and the Ministry of Truth.

@Paulina

You seem like a smart lady, so I ask you - if something seems incomprehensible to you - do you not start to think in other directions that may yield a more satisfactory answer?

Russians are not made from different material than, for example, a Filipino or an Icelander. They do not "enjoy" bombing hospitals in Aleppo and Mariupol. So then why do they do it? Let's go through a list of possible answers, from most innocent to most cynical:

1) It was an accident through imprecision. Russia cannot aim a cruise missile into the 9th floor window of a building like the US can, so it necessarily uses higher yield munitions which ensure target destruction. This may result in unintended collateral damage.

2) It was an accident through poor intelligence re: the nature of the target.

3) The Ukrainians once again positioned an artillery battery or armor next to the hospital in hopes of provoking a Russian attack that can then be mass distributed through global media.

4) Mariupol is surrounded. Formations within the cauldron are holding a 360 defense. Russians are pounding them with artillery. There are likely numerous wounded among the defenders. This hospital is treating them. Russians seek to demoralize the defenders further by hitting their wounded, hoping this will lead to a morale collapse.

5) The Russians are engaged in outright terror bombing, to break the will of the local population. The goal here, then, is for the population to banish the defenders from the city in hopes of preserving their home from destruction.

@Novichok
I know it must be hard for a senile old man to understand but the first amendment does not protect people who spread propaganda. You don't have to quote in order to support, or who knows be accused of supplying information to other Russian operatives, like the other trolls here. And living in the sh*thole of your moms basement in Chicago is not something to brag about. Go take a vitamin.

An example of spreading Russian propaganda is in this last post from the Russian troll who if in the USA based on promoting unverified information, or untruthful information, could easily be charged.

Russia admits to lying again... confirms it's sending conscripts to fight (continuing the Russian tradition of needlessly killing off its young men....)

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501595604857888769

Don't worry, Poland is still absolute champion in this sport.

Hey, retard, did you look up "spreading"?


You are really a retard. Sure, posting on an American forum, openly, with my name and my IP known to the forum administrator, will earn me a visit from the FBI and maybe even waterboarding. Pierdolnij sie w glowe, idioto...

Now I know for sure that the dumbest a-holes here are Polaks. No doubt about it.

Spot on and Putin is pis sed and taking it out on children in Ukrainian hospitals.
"The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military.
Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus.
But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President.
So they reported lies to him instead," wrote Kozyrev."
Cyprus has long been a favored destination for Russian officials seeking to launder money, and was infamous for its long-running "golden passport" scheme that until 2020 allowed rich foreigners to effectively EU buy citizenship.

I wrote that "it's incompressible for me", which means... to a normal, decent human being... I also added "This is simply evil..."... because there were many more hospitals and schools attacked during this invasion... So, either Russians are evil bastards targeting hospitals and schools on purpose or they shouldn't be given any lethal weapons...


I'm not buying that - I've seen videos of ordinary, big, tall blocks of flats getting hit somewhere in the middle of the building or high up for no apparent reason... And did you see the size of that hospital? It looks like a typical hospital or school building in this part of Europe... One would have to be a moron not to realise what they may be hitting...