Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 2

Stronger than Lithuania and Romania, yes. Stronger than Germany - I wouldn't be so sure (they are not as weak as they look :)). Stronger than Poland - I really don't think so. Wojsko Polskie after 23 years of modernisation and adjusting to NATO training and operation standards is way above any post-Soviet republic armed forces. We easily gave 200 of our T-72s to Ukraine, together with heaps of anti-air missiles (Piorun - better than Stinger, according to Ukrainians themselves), artillery units and ammo without any significant weakening of our army. What you call large post-Soviet stockpiles is for us garbage that we give away to Ukrainians, because they can use it without additional training. And it won't be long before we get the latest version of Abrams tanks, F35 fighters, and Patriot batteries - all brand new, bought and paid for - waiting for the delivery :)

Stronger than those four countries put together? You're having a laugh. And it's not just those four countries - it's the entire NATO, if any of them is attacked. Seriously, russia doesn't stand a chance against NATO, and you know it.

Ok. Above Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Georgia, and the microbalts- sure. Those theaters were of secondary importance in Soviet times, and were supplied on such basis as well. Ukraine is different. You did not easily give away your tanks, you only did it when some arrangement was made for Leopard and Abrams replacements. Your planes, of which you have a paltry number, you're afraid of giving away. Germany has supplied nearly ALL of its ATGMs and MANPADS, and it emerges that half of them do not work since they are 30+ year old GDR vintage systems.

Both Poland and Germany have absolutely zero experience of fighting wars since 1945. The token forces of elite regiments rotated through AFG and Iraq are meaningless when discussing European theatre scale conflicts. Russia, along with America, in the last thirty years has the most experience of any country on Earth of fighting wars and winning them.

True. The SU did also a lot of wrongs towards the Germans, including imprisoning part of them within the GDR. Yet I can not remotely compare it to atrocities like the Siege of Leningrad.

@Velund

As a historiam who has done research on similar documents, I could point out a couple of formal points that would reveal this document as a forgery.

As a start, the document is officially listed as "Verschlusssache" the lowest security level, yet its' content is supposedly top secret.


The problem is that Putin still views Europe terms of the last century. In which Great Powers can dominate others and dictate them their security and foreign policy. If Russia wants to become part of Europe again, it will have to learn that its' security interests do not overwrite those of Lithuania or Luxemburg.

Nope. Abrams were purchased and arranged for even before the war in Ukraine, and I haven't heard anything about Leopards in this context. The British mentioned something about Challengers but nothing concrete was agreed.


Well, perhaps it's the time to gain some! It would be nice to be allied to Germany, for a change, instead of fighting against them. :)


And yet, you are embarassing yourselves completely and utterly in Ukraine. Anyway, I won't try to convince you - if you want to try your luck, you know where to find us. :)

@GefreiterKania

I will grant that Kiev did not fall in two days, as your officials predicted. Serious mistakes were made in the first stages of the operation. However, if you are a student of military history you understand that militaries are learning organizations. Now there is a race of time. In most basic terms - how fast will Russian military implement the changes necessary to succeed, and how fast can Western help arrive to Ukraine. Assuming the West will supply Ukraine at some maximum rate it can politically and financially sustain, how much time is there to cement unchangeable realities on the ground?

There is already clear evidence that Russia has changed its strategy to one that leverages its strengths. Armored columns are now moving within reach of each other so that they can effect support to units operating on their right and left. Artillery and air pound UKR positions before armor even advances. This necessarily slows down the rate of advance, but minimizes losses and maximizes UKR casualties and equipment losses.

The Russian military, when given time, has always learned from its mistakes and effectively corrected them. Unfortunately, it seems a little shock is necessary first.

They can get worse too....I heard one expert comparing the russian army with the Germans from 1944 and not to the ones from '39 or '41!

Putin and Lavrov have already publicly said they can not beat NATO. There isn't even a discussion about this worth having. The Russian army would be wiped out. As for all the other day dreaming of Russia joined with the EU....The EU doesn't want it and neither do Russians. Please just build another wall, this time along your entire border, stay there and die. Really, there is nothing Russia brings of value that is worth the cost. Inbreeding and retardation still pollute the Russian gene pool.

yea but they could beat Poland tho. Thats still impressive them being able to take on NATO considering how much richer those countries are than anything Poland can boast about.

Kiev did not fall at all. Not in 2 days, not in 20 days, not in 75 and counting. As for the western support for Ukraine, it is actually still rather moderate, but this might change with the new American lend-lease program for Ukraine and Eastern Flank NATO...

defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3025302/biden-signs-lend-lease-act-to-supply-more-security-assistance-to-ukraine/


Are they indeed? If they are moving, then I have to say it's a rather slow movement. Even for a veeeeery slow tank, not reaching Kharkiv from Russian border in 75 days is rather slow. ;)


Good comparison but even in 1944 Germans still had more military competence and will to fight than what we witness in Ukraine. Can you imagine German troops shooting their own vehicles to avoid going into combat...

wydarzenia.interia.pl/raporty/raport-ukraina-rosja/aktualnosci/news-rosjanie-nie-chcieli-jechac-na-front-wiec-ostrzelali-wlasne-,nId,6012572

Bobko paints an optimistic picture of russian army learning and adjusting to circumstances but reality seems to contradict his observations.

@GefreiterKania

The focus is not on Kharkov but on effecting an encirclement of the Donbass group of forces. One pincer moving from the north and north east - south-south west, and the other up from Mariupol and Zaporizhye border to link up. That would finish the most battle hardened group within the Ukrainian military numbering some 60-70K men.

This is interesting guys:

newseu.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-09/What-is-Russia-s-T-90M-tank-and-why-is-destroying-one-significant--19QL6WIGVxK/index.html

You haven't even managed to take Kharkiv.

Plenty of orc cannon fodder fed into the meat grinder though.


Never. One reason the ruSSist media are carefully preparing their viewers for the news of russia's defeat.


That's probably one place they could never defeat. They could flatten it, however any attack on a NATO member state and Moscow would be under a metre of glass.

Im saying one on one or if USA stays out of it. if another Yalta agreement happens like with putin and Trump next election.

This target is not the one of the firsts in the target list. Slaviansk is MUCH more important now, for a number of reasons. Large cities will be left for a dessert... ;)

They could attempt to break the NATO treaty however the organisation is more than just one of its members. And the U.S. isn't the only nuclear power in NATO.

After an attack on a NATO state who invoke Article 5, as Poland certainly would, the rest of NATO are obliged to act. That's one reason a NATO state has never been attacked in Europe or North America.

The wording of Article 5 of the treaty is as follows:

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all "


You mean russia failed to take it more like, as they humiliatingly failed to take Kyiv and are now losing in the Donbas...

Have you seen the United States new hypersonic missile yet.
Holy ole Bat Man !
Faster than Toby runnin' out of the watermelon patch with a stolen watermelon.

"They could attempt to break the NATO treaty however the organisation is more than just one of its members. And the U.S. isn't the only nuclear power in NATO.

After an attack on a NATO state, the rest of NATO are obliged to act. That's one reason a NATO state has never been attacked in Europe or North America.

The wording of Article 5 of the treaty is as follows:

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all ""

its possible they would back down or fail their obligations once trump is in power and USA backs out after something similar to a Yalta agreement taking place between putin and trump and china or i ping. how do you know they would risk nuclear war for Poland?

@Bobko

Yes, that's what we have been hearing for some time now; hearing is the key word. Maybe we will also see something because these have to be the slowest moving "pincers" in the military history of the planet. :) I wouldn't hold my breath though. Not only are you not making any significant progress but Ukrainians are successfuly counterattacking. When the American lend-lease program kicks in and they finally start receiving substantial help there's not much hope for your great "pincers" plan.

That you will lose is more than certain; my only wish is that:

1. your troops abstain from senslessly murdering civilians;
2. if you really have to murder them, then at least abstain from murdering women and children;
3. if you really have to murder women and children, then at least don't rape them before;
4. if you really have to rape them before, then at least don't do this to toddlers;
5. if you really have to rape toddlers, then at least don't film yourself and put it on the internet like your "hero" Alexey Bychkov.

If you can fulfill at least some of the points 1-5, then I will be happy and I won't care about "fast-moving" columns, "pincers" or "quickly-adapting" russian army. That's all I ask.

As I mentioned. The US is not the only nuclear power in NATO.

The general understanding is that the first response to a nuclear strike would use conventional weapons. Should an enemy then attempt to escalate, there would be a large nuclear strike.

Each of the four Vanguard submarines can destroy 116 russian cities within minutes and unlike silo based weapons, their Trident missiles can be anywhere in the world and their locations are undetectable. No anti-missile system can stop them. The French nuclear deterrent is similar.

So attacking Poland, Germany, Bulgaria, the Baltics, any NATO country would be the last thing the russians did. Even their deep continuity of government bunkers or their 'Metro 2' aren't much use when they are fused under glass.

thats if the other countries respond. why didnt they respond when Poland was attacked in 39 and just declared war on hitler then?

There was no NATO then.... NATO arose out of the insanity of WWII as a deterrent, to make war to scary to contemplate.

Even the bloodthirsty and insane Russians have so far respected that...

they had similar agreements in place. NATO isn't some savior or religious order or anything you are trying to claim it as such. Do you know what hypersonic missiles are or iskanders?

Lithuania recognises war in Ukraine as genocide, Russia as terrorist state

lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1691202/lithuania-recognises-war-in-ukraine-as-genocide-russia-as-terrorist-state

So you weren't even born in Ukraine. You're simply a Russian with Ukrainian roots, that's all. Atch is right (and I immediately thought about Ireland too, when I read your answer :)). Having Ukrainian roots doesn't give you the right to decide about Ukraine's fate, just like an American with Irish roots doesn't have a say about the fate of Ireland and vice versa. Even if you have family there. It's understandable that you may feel a stronger emotional connection to a country from which one of your parents come from, but that's it. You have as much right to decide about what's going on in Ukraine, as Piotr Gąsowski has to decide about what's going on in Russia lol Piotr Gąsowski is a well liked Polish actor whose mother was Russian. He has family both in Russia and Ukraine. He's against the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this is what he has to say to Russians:

natemat.pl/400145,mama-piotra-gasowskiego-byla-rosjanka-aktor-apeluje-do-rosjan

Ukrainians will decide about themselves, just like the Irish or the Americans will decide about themselves. And you're not Ukrainian, Velund.


This says a lot about you. As I already wrote - you're not an Ukrainian - neither legally, nor mentally. You're Russian through and through. Just like Piotr Gąsowski is Polish.


Cms_neuf isn't Polish :)

They did that in 1939.

Paulina I have Polish roots and already decided about the polish fate or formed an opinion. so what?

NATO didn't exist then. It was created in response to WWII and the challenges afterwards.

Countries did respond though. The U.K. declared war within days after germany didn't not respond to the ultimatum to withdraw from Poland and lost many thousands of troops and civilians despite our own cities being flattened and burnt in the blitz. People in Poland sometimes say we didn't respond quickly enough, however a quicker response that was also an effective response was impossible and we did fight until the bitter end. The US only got involved (there was opposition since there were any German-American voters and some initial support there for Hitler) when the Japanese attacked Hawaii.

As a result of this and in response to the threat from Soviet (russian) imperialism, NATO was formed and no matter how insane their leader, russia know that trying to **** with it would be the last thing they did.

If they are allowed.
For some strange reason, Iraqis were not allowed to have WMDs. We spent 20 years, trillions, and thousands of deaths to tell them. Now, it's Russia's turn to show its displeasure about NATO and Ukraine getting married.


The trick is to respond before they do it to you. The US, Israel, and Russia read that chapter...

It doesn't work that way. The US did something stupid wrong and immoral... that doesn't mean that Russia gets too (unless you're an emotional infant).

Don't try to be a wiseguy. This isn't an episode of Hill Street Blues.

At the (sudden) start of WWII, an army had to be drafted, armaments had to be made. And of course the war was on several fronts almost from the start.

Now there are enough nukes on one sub to make russian culture something from the history books with a few stragglers in villages in the east.