Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 2

What do you mean by the political levels beneath the government?

As for the people, you're wrong.


The EU is not Russia. We won't be doing that.

Reuters journalists have confirmed Ukraine is now in control of territory stretching to the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River, around 40km east of Kharkiv.

The trial has begun of the Russian charged with shooting a Ukrainian senior citizen.

In 'liberated' Mariupol the sewage system no longer functions, thanks to weeks of Russian shelling and the raw sewage is now discharging directly into the sea. How the Russian liberators have improved life for the people of Mariupol.

@mafketis

Possibly all true (or half true, or not true at all), but it doesn't mitigate the fact that Russia still has a destructive force.

Russia throughout it's history has proven to be not very effective as an expeditionary force--it's been much better as a defensive force. I don't deny that. However, that doesn't mean that it lacks lethality and doesn't have the capacity to succeed in its desired outcome. We (including the twitter guy--who comes off as bright and analytical, albeit idelogically anti-Putin) have no idea if there is an effective military leader (or leaders) in the wings who will be given charge of this operation or if some kind of operational adjustment will be made that turns this thing around for Russia.

The fact remains: Russia still has lethal conventional capacity and is causing a lot of destruction in Ukraine. My point is that Ukraine isn't easily kicking Russia's ass and it's premature to raise our glasses to celebrate an Uke victory.

It would take a lot more than that...


Yet with support from the free world, they are slowly doing it.

You don't know that, jon.


I'd say they are surviving by fighting like hell, but it's not doing it easily.

If this brutal and unjustified war drags on who will have time on its side?

Given that their 'top' generals have been fighting the three-day 'special operation' for more than two months, it's fair to say that the next tier down won't make much difference.


They're doing it with great perseverance, skill and with the best help.


The free world. And most of all, we have determination and better weapons.

Time will be on Poland's side. Russia's military and economy will be greatly weakened, NATO will be strenghtened and have two additional members in the Baltic area, Polish army will buy a lot of modern equipment, and Ukraine will have more worries for decades than taking back "Zakerzonia" (and, yes, the role of Azov and other para-nazi elements will decrease - there's a reason why Zelensky left them without help in Mariupol).

In the end, Russia will be the same but much weaker and Ukraine will be more democratic, modern and predictable. Both things good for Poland. Too bad so many civilians will have to pay the price.

When this all started in February people were terrified, but with time it became more and more evident that the longer the war lasts the better strategically it is for Poland (so, logically, Poland is taking refugees and doing everything to help Ukraine). Quick Russian victory would be a disaster for us.

The first losses of Europe from the Ukrainian Nazis.

In Warsaw, a crowd of "Ukrainian refugees" beat a local resident to death: he stood up for a girl whom the "refugees" molested.

t.me/intelslava/28715

So the first Polish victim of the war was killed, as expected, by the Ukrainians.

The Pole who stood up for the girls harassed by drunken Ukrainians was beaten and died from the sustained injuries.

You posted that earlier today - are you drunk or something?

Now, that I'm willing to raise my glass and celebrate right now.


But you're assuming that the cream rose to the top and is running this operation. History from ancient to contemporary times is replete with military turn arounds with change in leadership.


Yep, they're determined and receiving help. But, will it be sustained and at needed levels?

@Maf @Jon @PAK

I suspect you understand it yourselves, but the information and opinions you are distributing here regarding Russian military performance are simply ludicrous.

PAK says Russian/Ukrainian casualties are 10:1. Maf says Russian military is not prestigious within society and negative selection is happening. Jon says Russians build pontoon bridges without securing banks, and so on so forth.

Then all this hoopla about stolen millions. Have you or your Twitter friends climbed inside a Russian tank's engine section and seen for yourself all the millions stolen in maintenance? Do you have a source inside the MoD's chief armor inspectorate?

10:1 losses is laughable - we would be in negative territory now given that we started with less than 200K. According to Russian MoD and General Staff Ukrainian total losses are approaching 45K+. According to Ukrainian MoD Russians lost 22k+. There is no doubt thousands of Russian soldiers have died or been captured, but there is serious doubt it approaches multiple tens of thousands.

Regarding prestige - according to polls the military is the most popular and trusted institution in Russia. More than Putin. Here's a link to very west-leaning Moscow Times:

themoscowtimes.com/2019/10/24/russians-trust-putin-less-army-poll-a67880

Regarding pontoon bridges - of course we secured the banks with effective fire. Unless you didn't realize, this is a different war, where a little Chinese drone can coordinate artillery strikes from 28km away. Unless you're understanding of securing banks is securing territory to a depth of 30 km before attempting crossings, it's not clear what you are talking about.

Everything you say is all the more ridiculous when you zoom out and take the wider context. Mariupol is 120 km deep into Russian lines now. No possible deblockade operation is possible. Azov commanders are asking Elon Musk and Pope Francis's to somehow "extract" them. The south of Zaporozhye is slowly being secured. Conditions are being created for a push to Odessa as the defenses around Nikolayev continue to crumble. Biggest of all - the grand maneuver to encircle the Donetsk group is continuing. All the successes of Ukrainian army pushing to Russian border north east of Kharkov is because those areas are drained of resources which have been reallocated south, southwest. Ukrainians are trying to force Russia too peel off forces from the Izyum offensive to patch that area up.

Edit: Another good indication of who's doing how, is the amount of POWs. Ukraine has no one left to trade, while Russia has a balance of at least 3,000+. The AFU Marines surrendered in one neat package of 1,000 in Mariupol.

Take your sobs somewhere that people care about it.

I mean so of our American guests here are not bright. I would think that after 50 years you would understands that your government DO not WANT to put money into it. They would rather give it to a pimp in a Mexco city than put up the wall or put more quards on the border.

Should I speak slowly for you to get it? LET IT SINK IN!


Dude they heard about him but i deosn;t mean thay heard about Wołyń. What did tell you?
Do they in the USA spike your water with dumbing down drugs?

Just for discussion's sake, this is the official Russian tally. You never see it show up in any Ukrainian publication. Western outlets are a little more judicious, but never share the actual graphic, just citing numbers and opining on how Russians lie like they breathe.

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@Bobko

What are the russian media saying about the aims of the war? I've heard nobody mentions 'denazification' or 'demilitarization' anymore, so what's the latest story? How is the reason for fighting and the aim to be achieved explained to your people? Just curious.

Every Ukrainian has heard about Wolyn, and they view it as a proportional response to centuries of Polish rape of their country's wealth and population.

@ GefreiterKania

"Denazification" is gone, or much less present. Apparently internal Kremlin polling showed population had difficulty pronouncing it, let alone understanding it. Demilitarization is very high up on priority list still. More surprising is how conversation has moved quickly on including Kherson oblast into Russia. That wasn't announced originally, but is what the most excitement is about at the moment probably. Next on the menu is Zaporozhye and what to do with it.

@Bobko
Can you translate it? I hate to guess!

@Cojestdocholery

Ehrm, translate what?

@Bobko

Thank you for the info. So it's exactly as we suspected - if Russia is given Donbas, they will reach for Kherson and Zaporozhye; if that is lost then more Ukrainian lands will be invaded. Classic salami tactics in an imperial conquest war. That's why they have to fight to the bitter end or to victory. It's a question of survival for them, hence the fierceness. And of course all the atrocities inflicted on Ukrainian civilians only add to their determination.

numbers your Russian stats or what the hell is that! you posted it!

@Bobko

Yeah, yeah - wsyo paniatna.

History has also shown that you need more than a lethal army to win a war.....The US had a lethal army in Vietnam, much better than the VietCong....first Russia then the combined West was more lethal than the Taliban and still had to leave as losers...even the german army was lethal till the end in WWII....

Thing is Russia has right now nothing going for it BUT a big army (and yes size is a lethal factor)....and it won't get any better, that's the reason they will lose in the end. No matter who leads that army. The end depends if their leader is of the "Endsieg" kind or if he will cut his losses and leave sooner or later! (And if Ukraine/the West will still want to compromise with that leader at all).

@Cojestdocholery

Oh fak, ok. So the three headlines are: (Top Box: Armed Forces of Ukraine), (Bottom Left: National Guard of Ukraine), (Bottom Right: State Border Guard).

The "+" numbers indicate how many was added on that day, in this case May 10th. For personnel, the three stats, in order, are KIA, WIA, POW. So on example of Border Guard it's: 368, 343, 116 respectively, for total of 807. The rest I won't translate, because I think you can understand from the pictures.

They've fired generals and replaced them and things have only got worse for the russians.

And of course NATO member states who are advising them have pretty good military leaders too. Even the best.


Evidence so far suggests yes. When the MoD say that this could be a prolonged war of insurgents and the Foreign Secretary talks about two years then yes, they've clearly factored this in. The stakes really are that high.


Fiction, on a level with describing the war as a 'special operation' or pretending that the two Colonels who carried out the chemical weapons attack in Salisbury were there to see the 120 metre spire!

Ukraine uses wartime propaganda too, as they are of course entitled to. The independent estimates are however far closer to the Ukrainian figures tha the russian.

They are indeed. Reagan said 'Evil Empire' and he was spot on. They are no longer an empire but still as evil as it gets and rotten to the core.

Yes. Nukes would fly and will be peace.

Man those teenage cries of "shame" and "fascist" lol....


Undoubtedly Russia... it'd be like if Iran and Israel went to war... Iran would lose far more soldiers and equipment but unlike Israel they can afford to.

The best that the ukrops can hope for is a stalement, another frozen conflict..

And the sad thing is how long it is taking for that fact to dawn on them.

Putler has had only one success in this whole war amid so many humiliations. That success is in uniting the free world against him while at the same time determining the resolve of liberal democracies to uphold a rules-based order and stand up to aggression

Resources are scarce. The cold winter is coming.

Don`t you people think time is to accept fact of world being Multi-Polar and start talk about future of mankind.

So a stalemate is a loss for Russia.
They invaded Ukraine, got nothing but a stalemate and reinforced NATO.
And will soon suffer economically from the sanctions.
Plus thousands of dead Russian soldiers.
In my book, that is a huge loss for Russia.
Putin has to be losing it, because he is acting like a madman.
Not a man to admire.

I've noticed foreigners reacting to a Polish song sang in Polish on YouTube, which, I guess, doesn't happen that often, so I've decided to check it out.

It's "Mamo, tyś płakała" ("Mom, you've been crying") by Sanah and Igor Herbut. The song is about the war in Ukraine and the whole profit from this song goes to a charity helping Ukrainian children affected by the war.

It's interesting that even foreign people on YouTube who didn't know what this song is about and were listening to it without subtitles could feel the pain in the singers' voices, especially in Igor's (who has Lemko roots, btw). I have to admitt that it's the first song in my life that made me want to rip someone's heart out with my bare hands (hearts of Russian soldiers, to be more precise):

youtu.be/gfqYpunru8I

In the description on YouTube there are lyrics in both Polish and Ukrainian and this is my translation of the song's lyrics into English:

"Mom, you've been crying"

Mom, you've been crying
Your eyes were wide open
Did anyone hurt you again?
They've dealt a blow
Men of steel
They look into your eyes
When you say "Enough!"

Tuck in, tuck in
My bright eyes
Are waiting for me to fall asleep
Call out, call out
To the heavens
We need a miracle

Take what you want
Whatever, whatever you want
Take everything
Take, take and go away
And this stress
All this stress
Take it for yourself
I've had enough of tears

Mom, you've been crying
Your eyes were wide open
Did anyone hurt you again?
They've dealt a blow
Men of steel
They look into your eyes
When you say "Enough!"

How will I protect you and which side
I should take today when there are hundreds of enemy eyes
My cry is not enough
Take me away, mom
Somewhere far away
Far away from here

I miss, I miss
The years
When they would give advice
Today, today
I want to scream from a distance
But the voice isn't working

Take what you want
Whatever, whatever you want
Take everything
Take, take and go away
And this stress
All this stress
Take it for yourself
I've had enough of tears

Mom, you've been crying
Your eyes were wide open
Did anyone hurt you again?
They've dealt a blow
Men of steel
They look into your eyes
When you say "Enough!"

How will I protect you and which side
I should take today when there are hundreds of enemy eyes
My cry is not enough
Take me away, mom
Somewhere far away
Far away from here