Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 4

@Paulina
I thought the US would minimize things as well in order not to escalate. But it looks like the collective call of all parties is that it was a Ukraine missile and these things can happen. Cooler heads prevailed. Russia was specific in their denial as well stating they have never sent a missile closer than 35 kilometers to the Polish border.

Putin is looking for an exit strategy now. He knows he has lost and can not win. It would take a million men at once to go in and take Ukraine and half of them would die doing it. Then eventually Ukraine would take back what it lost. The only out for him is negotiations, and pressure on infrastructure is his way of trying to get Ukraine citizens to force Z to negotiate. Bad strategy and unlikely to be successful. Someone simply needs to put a bullet in the chief Orc's head.

@PolAmKrakow, yes, I do hope they'll publish detailed results of the investigation though.

Because, for example, an Ukrainian military expert claims that from a technical point of view it couldn't be a S-300 missile:

kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-nato-says-poland-missile-likely-fired-by-ukrainian-air-defense-zelensky-wants-investigation

"Contrary to the West's claims, Ukrainian military expert Serhiy Zhdanov told the Kyiv Independent that he could hardly believe that a S-300 complex was involved in the blast. He explained that if it were the case, its self-destruction mechanism would have been activated since the missile missed the target.

From a technical point of view, it was most likely a Russian Kh-101 missile, Zhdanov said.

"This missile is designed specifically to overcome anti-missile defense systems," he said. "It flies at a very low altitude and is not seen by radars. So from a technical point of view, it was most likely a Russian missile."

But apparently based on the photos of the missile fragments it was a S-300 missile.

I have zero knowledge about this stuff, so I guess I'll have to wait for the results of this investigation.

Russian intellectual Kamil Galeev has a great thread taking apart "realist" approaches to the russian invasion of Ukraine, in this case John Mearsheimer's faulty analyses that do not lead to any productive understanding of the war...

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1593388247799021568

shorter version: Mearsheimer does not have access to russian political thought and instead projects his own meaning onto things putain says and completely misunderstands them.

Ever since the end of the USSR russians have been publicly talking about how unjust Ukrainian borders are... they don't see it as conquest but as redressing wrongs done to them.

Also, putain had bad info - he was told Ukrainians would welcome him which, as we now know, did not happen.

But really, read the whole thing.

Interesting take on things for sure. Somewhat logical actually, but, logic is not always representative of reality. You cant go back to borders established in 1922 sacrificing borders that in current history have been established for 30 years.

Still, the Orc's attack more civilian infrastructure today showing exactly how little chance they have of defeating Ukraine. The only thing they can do is try to freeze the people before their Orc's are solid ice cubes.

For Ukrainians this war is no longer about territory but about survival as a nation, its invader believes Ukraine doesn't have the right to exist.


Which they will.
Russia will keep taking out Ukraine's electrical grid and darked the entire country this winter.
Putin has been humiliated and will have no mercy.

Putan and Zelenski are both liars and dont trust either one of them. You're entitled to your opinion as well as I am.

I dont believe a word from Biden either, hes not actually in charge.

@Joker, sure you're entitled to your opinion, but what about Polish president? Is Duda lying too, according to you?

@Joker
Excellent post and Spot On !

@johnny reb
I agree to an extent. They will try to freeze them out, but big military generators and lots of other commerial generators will make things less difficult. Putin will run out of missiles and Orc will freeze in their trenches. Below freezing now, and the Orc's have no winter gear, going to be more difficult for them.

What Duda says means nothing. Poland is a US territory and a military welfare bum.

this is the bandit state of russia we're talking about... of course they don't... they do have cellophane tents!

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1593561138238816258

twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1593615073347440640

No heating and no sleeping bags either.... russia is trying to kill as many russian men as possible....

How, then, did Russia manage to launch perhaps "the widest-scale missile attack since the beginning of the war" last Tuesday ?

Here are four possible scenarios.

1. Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea for weapons.
The swarms of Iranian made drones that are attacking Ukraine most notably, the long-range Shahed series that can carry an 88-pound warhead and crash into targets in "kamikaze" strikes have been Russia's newest weapon in the conflict.

2. Russia may be building more missiles around the clock.

3. Russia is using air defense missiles to launch attacks, Ukraine says.

4. Russia may have been holding some weapons in reserve for war against NATO.
It is not known if Russia may have depended on those reserves for Tuesday's strikes.

Now do you believe Putin when he said, "this war is far from being over".

Tuesday's attack had been in the works for a long time (intended to be up to a third of remaining missiles back in September or so...)

1. Iran is stalling and won't give them as much as they want, don't know about the Norks...

2. russia cannot build things anymore, to much depends on foreign technology/workers that they've lost

3. they're cannibalizing a lot of things, some of the missles were actually nuclear warheads

twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1593527826329866240

4. they've been using weapons from _before_ WWII and can't arm or even outfit the mobilized (and have pulled troops away from the NATO border)

russia is throwing everythng they have at this and it's not enough....

Hmm, this is RuSSia we're talking about... They probably got sold off on the side some time ago... lol

Btw, the same was happening during communist times in Poland. One elderly Pole told us during our Polish-RuSSian discussions that Soviet soldiers stationing in Poland were selling all kinds of stuff to local Poles, including their military gear.


Wow, they're not even in Ukraine yet, this is still RuSSia! lol Mindblowing... :D

Meanwhile, this is what Ukrainian engineers are building for their soldiers:

gadzetomania.pl/ukrainskie-przygotowania-do-zimy-buduja-ogrzewane-fortyfikacje,6834905778174624a

❤️👍

But Crimea and Donbas are Russian forever...lol...
Did Duda get that memo from the White House yet?

this implies russia will have a choice.....

Anyhoo, according to general svr current plans are to increase mobilization and start introducing martial law in more areas of russia (including border closures to prevent mentally helathy russians from getting out of Dodge....)

The plan is also to change the propaganda to make this a "people's war" the goal being for putain to be able to take credit for any success and to blame the russian people for any failures....

nasty, nasty, nasty inferior country with inferior supporters...

...just as the US has a choice to return the land taken from the Natives...hahahahaha...You are really funny, maf.
No, this implies that the Polish volunteers are world-class morons since the outcome is already in the bag. All they have to do is open the bag...Zero chance.

@Novichok, as usual you're making ridiculous comparisons. Pulling back from a territory that was held for less than a year, or even 8 years, is completely different than giving back lands that were taken over two centuries ago to natives that are a small minority on that territory already. The second one is simply unrealistic.


I don't think those mobilised in that "camp" in Voronezh share your merriment :)))


But Ukraine is already doing that - RuSSia said that Kherson is "RuSSia", and, yet, Ukraine took it.

I agree Russia is using Iran, and possibly NK for weapons supply. Because they are out or very low on their own. Russia does not have the capability to manufacture more modern weapons because they have no chips or other tech needed, thats why they buy from other countries.

Captured sleeping bags and winter gear? From where? Ukraine just gave out their winter gear in the last few weeks and Russia hasnt been near enough to capture more than a coat or two.

Crimea will not be Russian. It is beyond that now. The only way this ends is when both countries are exhausted from fighting, or when Putin is dead. Thats it. Not one Ukraine person will give in to Russia, they would rather fight to the end, and that for all Americans who have forgotten, is called being a patriot. Fvck Putin, fvck the Orcs, and fvck everyone who supports them. I would not pi$$ on any of these people if they were on fire.

I'm not sure if people in Crimea share your conviction... I've read that Crimean businesspeople are not accepting payments in rubles anymore, only in Ukrainian currency lol o_O

Also, many RuSSians who moved to Crimea after 2014 are selling their flats and moving back to RuSSia. Real estate prices are down 15-20%:

wiadomosci.wp.pl/rosjanie-uciekaja-masowo-sprzedaja-domy-6832111772691104a

No. K was given to U by R to avoid more casualties. There was no fight.


Never forget that R is a dictatorship where what people think and feel does not matter. Just as in Western "democracies".

But your heart-felt concern about "the people" is duly noted and your place in heaven is guaranteed.

face saving twaddle... nothing russia has done so far indicates any concern at all for human life...

spontaneous pro-Ukrainian protests have already started appearing in Krym...

Krym ne vash!

...except for the statistics that Russian-hating morons hate. Like this one:

From 24 February to 6 November 2022, OHCHR recorded ... a total of 6,490 killed...

FYI, that number of 6490 is actually lower than just three days of harvesting "fetuses" in the"health" clinics for women in America. Just saying...

Russia...the killers. 6490 in 8 months or 30 a day. America...loving and caring. 2500 a day.

Awesome to see Russia's only friends, the murderers of Teheran, are now really shaky. Protestors are burning down Khomeinis house

Will be a great day when the kids in Moscow burn down the troll farms

@Novichok, as I already explained it to you more than once 6,490 is a number of civilian deaths that OHCHR was able to verify. As OHCHR stated the actual number is most likely CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.


That means the situation of the RuSSian forces was so bad that they had to pull out of Kherson.


I'm pretty sure that three days of harvesting female fetuses in India would give you impressive numbers too. So? It doesn't mean that RuSSia can invade a neighbouring country and kill people there. 🤦

...but Crimea and Donbas are Russian forever. All the noise and deflections here notwithstanding...


Maybe they did because they could count the pros and the cons of standing their ground on this side of the river. If AK had brains...you know the rest.

There is no such thing as "forever" in history.

None of the countries that bordered Poland in 1989 exists today. NONE...



Crimea and Donbas may be Russian in 10 years time, they may be Ukrainian, may be Muscovian (one of six republics that Russia will desitegrate into) or they can even be independent republics. Nobody knows.

So get in your pathetic car, get your pop gun and go and defend the Crimea. The actual Russian commanders there have left a long time ago - can't see them for dust, they have left their drunk soldiers to fend for themselves

Russia knows now what results from going soft and stupid. They dissolved the Warsaw Pact, removed their army from Germany and Poland, dissolved the USSR and what did they get? A Jew trying to get them into a shooting war with the US and NATO snake at their doorstep. Nobody is that stooopid in Russia anymore. No, I don't have proof.

Do they? Russia went monumentally stupid in February and it's been only going downhill since then. The defeats at Kiev, Kharkiv and now Kherson show that they are not that hard either. So, soft and stupid describe today's Russia pretty well (which, as incorrigible Russophile, pains me to say).