Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 5

Not so fast, darling. Currently, major players in NATO are quite reluctant to such an idea. Come down to earth coz you are skydreaming....... :):):)

True.
But public opinion will swing it..... You just can't see the bigger picture.

No, the public opinion in major NATO countries won`t swing it. You see a too small picture. :):):)

We will see who is right later.......

Come back in 15 years` time... :):):)

Ukraine will be a NATO member well before that.
You may even live to see it happen.

You made similarly false predictions about Russia and Putin never starting the war. And? :):):)
You know now why I can`t believe what you say, darling.

Fair commenr.
I did not realise quite how stupid Putin was/is.

@Miloslaw
Have to agree with Pawian. It will be the US and a few others who say no to Ulkraine joining NATO. The US only wants Ukraine to not become like the Belarus zombie nation. The US wants to be involved with reconstruction. Ukraine in NATO will be thrown away at the bargaining table when peace talks begin. If Ukraine were to be coming in NATO would be giveing a lot more weapons a lot sooner than they have been. In the EU? Easily ans that will be enough to keep little Vlad and the fags from trying to make another move later.

An interesting article was published in the Financial Times yesterday. The title was: " 'Who will pay the bill?': Poland's defence spending spree raises questions over funding ". The article highlights the challenges that lay ahead for Poland, as it plans a level of military spending this year which will exceed 4% of GDP, or higher than both the United States and Russia.

It turns out that those of us that questioned how Poland will pay for 500 HIMARS (more than America has), or brigades-worth of Korean self propelled guns were onto something!

A quote from the article:
After high yields forced Poland to scrap a bond sale in October, former defence minister and opposition politician Tomasz Siemoniak wrote on Twitter that "the defence ministry is buying without a plan and apparently without money".

... and another quote:

Warsaw should win plaudits for helping Ukraine but its military spending "is becoming all about the elections", said retired Polish general Waldemar Skrzypczak. "We have over 8mn older people who need to feel safe and who can decide who wins the elections, and the government isn't now thinking about the future generations who will pay the bill."

How did Poland get here? The answer is a little complex. On the one hand - there's the economy. Growth has slowed down substantially, and there's less confidence now that future growth would allow to finance these purchases without breaking the budget. Slowing growth, and high inflation - are in part results of high borrowing costs. If Poland could afford to borrow cheaply, before, to pay for these weapons - then now the loans it would have to take have become very expensive indeed. The second factor, after the economy, is the misplaced hopes of Poland's government regarding "reimbursements" from other Western allies.

Here's a quote from one of those hopefuls:

If financial markets remain volatile, western allies could help cover the bill for weapons stationed in Poland but on behalf of Nato's eastern flank, said Polish state secretary Marcin Przydacz.

Because the allies are busy drafting their own rearmament plans, there's not much appetite to fund Poland's huge purchases in lieu of their own.

And so... Poland faces the eternal question of guns vs butter. There's no question that Poland can buy these astronomic quantities of weapons, however it's not clear what the cost would be for its people.

I'm sure Maf and Milo will say that no cost is too great, if it means a guarantee of nonaggression from Russia.

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Because the FT article is so good, and addresses so much of what gets discussed here... I wanted to do something unusual and post one more image and some additional quotes.

The image shows where Poland is relative to other NATO states. Though it looks like Poland is only slightly above 2%, we know that this year it will hit 4%. If this information from the FT is incorrect, I would like to hear what locals have been reading.

The first additional quote comes from Sikorski, and confirms further that it's the situation in financial markets which is key:

"We have been buying a lot and I can only hope that Poland has managed to negotiate good deals," said opposition politician and former foreign minister Radosław Sikorski. "It's not obvious to me that Poland has the ability to pay for all of this when you look at how the financial markets are now and our recent record in terms of selling bonds."

Apart from financial difficulties associated with such mammoth purchases, other people interviewed called out the low level of localization. One potential benefit to saddling Poland's population with such a weapons bill, according to PiS, is that it will kickstart the growth of a powerful armaments industry in Poland. The people interviewed have little faith this is possible:

The nation's record for larger projects is patchy - its navy took 17 years to build the Ślązak patrol ship. "Our problems with building a single warship without any special armament show our limited capacity," said a former military official who asked not to be named because he was involved in this procurement.

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I'm not stupid or naive enough to believe that russia could ever be anything but a violent and aggressive bandit state (russians like it that way... so who cares how much they rob and kill each other?)

The goal is to make it too expensive for russian decision makers (the less than 1 %?) for the country to try to agress beyond its borders again... of course the rulers of russia don't care anything about the lives of their captive slave citizens... but they do care about their own position.....

@Bobko
Great article and you make great points. This is the problem with PiS, the socialist in Poland. They are taxing the fvck out of small business, and they are gouging consumers with government owned utilities and oil companies. While the intention is genuine in wanting to be prepared to defend against Russia, they have not built the army the way it needs to be, and they are pandering to those who are already financially insecure for more votes. While PiS has really done a great job supporting Ukraine, the debt Poland will discover when PiS is no longer in control will be so large that it will mirror the US in a scale model.

23% VAT, 42% ZUS, and none of that money is being invested properly. This year, municipalities already have the ability to withhold VAT over payment refunds to business at the regional level if they in their brilliance think it will not be a financial burden on business. Basically a FU we are taking your money. Its already happening in Krakow. Lets not forget CIT at 19 to 23% and people wonder why COL is out of control.

All this said, Russia must be sent packing without winning. There is no other acceptable end to this. Ukraine is the sucker in the fight, but they brought it on themselves in many ways. Sure little Vlad could have held back, but we all know, and Ukraine knew he wouldnt. So, here we are. Hundreds of thousands dead and injured. This is what Russia gives to Ukraine. And people question why Ukraine doesnt want it?

Yeah I thought this would be right up your guys' alley.

PiS amazes me. They improvise as they go - true artists.

Also, how about these Poles? Making fun of Russia for crappy submarines and aircraft carriers, while they can't build a goddamn patrol boat (PATROL BOAT!!!) for 17 years.

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@Bobko, Poles (and others) make fun of RuSSia, because everybody thought RuSSia has this powerful army and that with all this money it has from selling resources it should do better than this. So it's a clash of expectations vs reality.

Poland hasn't aspired to be a military superpower and so the expectations are proportionally lower :)


Unfortunately.

So now, when it does aspire to be the "strongest land power on the European continent" - no less - do you support this initiative of your government?

Are you willing to send a much larger share of your income towards Poland having more HIMARS than there are currently on planet Earth?

If yes, I have an attractive ideology for you to study. It's called Juche Idea, or Juche Thought.

Here have a read:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche

I'll take guns any day. Butter is overrated and you can't very well defend your borders with it. I don't care if Kaczynski has to sell his cat for it, I want those f*cking HIMARS launchers and tanks.

As for Polish navy, it should be dissolved altogether. We don't need ships, we need shitl*ads of anti-ship coastal rocket batteries. We are not a sea, colonial empire but a flat plain in the middle of Europe that needs to be defended.

I agree, and most intelligent people agree. However, the point that the article's authors were trying to make with that miserable patrol boat... is that Poland will likely not manufacture anything meaningful locally for the HIMARS, K2, or Abrams that it's buying. This was one of the main arguments of PiS!

Basically, PiS's promise, as I remember it was - yes this is a colossal sum of money, but much of it will remain in Poland because we will integrate local industry to the job.

This man, that works in PROCUREMENT, is saying he has low confidence this is possible because Poland could not equip a boat which has a single gun - for over 17 years.

The question is not about ships, but what Polish industry can achieve.

Bottom line: are Poles happy to provide employment in Alabama and Kansas, and generally feed the American military-industrial complex, over the phantom threat of Russian invasion?

Can Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics survive without this powerful shot in the arm from the Poles? Why is it that Poles worry more about American factories than Americans do? Haha!

Well it shows that those in the military were absolutely not worried about NATO at all, presumably if they really thought NATO was a credible threat they wouldn't have stolen all the money that was supposed to be put into updating the military...

And of course competence and initiative have never been respected or valued in russia.... so you get massive amounts of crappy weapons used in an outdated manner that doesn't distinguish between military and civlians....

the world doesn't need russia and would generally be better off without it....

Naval industry is appalling, but other branches are not that bad - we make good modern howitzers (Krab), afvs (Borsuk) or manpads, and the deal with Korea includes licence to produce K2PL version of their main battle tank; most of the Chunmoo launchers will be mounted on Polish Jelcz trucks and integrated with Polish Topaz fire control system. So, our industry will make their buck. Also, Stalowa Wola has their full production capacity for Krabs reserved up until 2027, and new orders will be coming.

I wouldn't worry about Polish army, if I were you, Bobi. If Russia ever decides to invade Poland, she will face a force much stronger than what you are currently dealing with in Ukraine (and a NATO member, so help from the outside would also be incomparably larger). It's a question of costs really - even if we spend 10% of GDP for all this stuff every year for the next 10 years, it's still way cheaper than being invaded and occupied.

Also, I wouldn't worry about Poles collapsing under shortages of "butter". We are a nation well used to scarcity and crises, we've been through all kinds of sh*t throughout our history. These days, it's probably the best period ever in Polish history when it comes to wealth and consumption levels - we are getting too "fat", some diet and exercise is more than welcome. :)

What I would worry about though if I were you, is your Chinese "friends". Let me put it this way, when you're taking a shower together and your soap happens to fall on the floor - don't bend over to pick it up with China behind you. :)


Sure. If we are a valuable and reliable source of dollars for them, they will help us defend ourselves when the sh*t hits the fan. It's rather difficult to abandon an ally who showers you with billions of bucks and creates thousands of workplaces for your population. Freedom has a price and it's usually quite high.


You started a full-scale war in Europe because of a phantom threat of NATO invasion; why can't we spend some cash because of a phantom threat of Russian invasion? Especially that spending this cash and creating the strongest land army in Europe will make that invasion even more phantom.

This is what I read too. Something makes me think that when you buy a sophisticated modern multiple launch rocket system, the trucks and FCS make up a small fraction of the cost. You would probably do better if you mounted them on a MAN or Renault chassis, while the fire control system is made up of computers and gyroscopes that Poland almost certainly doesn't make (so not sure what will be localized there, except for the software engineers).

The Krab, Barsuck, Piorun, and Twardy are all Polish attempts at modernizing Soviet-era equipment. It does not qualify as innovation, or proof of any specific capability.

Cut the crap. The only source of their dollars is me and the rest of us, American taxpayers, as well as our kids that will be stuck with unpayable debt - forever or until the whole rotten debt-ridden mess collapses - whichever comes first.

A clue: BRICs are doing their very best to accelerate the process - an unintended side effect of those sanctions you, Euro morons, are so proud of officially. Less officially, not so much after realizing the true meaning of "useful idiots".

Not sure about Poland but no one asked for my democratic consent to have my living expenses increased. No one asked me to support the entire Ukrainian population for an unlimited number of years. These issues are currently and will continue to rise to the surface, people will notice.

Democracy mean specially trained Democrats in power, opinion of population is problem of population. ;)

Because Western "democracies" are just softer forms of fascism where the stupid believe that voting for party hacks is democracy. Under this rule, Poland in 1960 was a democracy.

Never a truer word spoken.


Very true.

Never have dumber words been spoken while sober because they can be said about a hundred other countries, including Poland.
For one, Russia is the last white hope and a barrier to LGBT insanity and globalist scum like Soros.

Even if that were true and it's not, the price is too high to pay.

@Bobko

Neither Krab nor Borsuk are "attempts at modernising soviet equipment". We will certainly be getting rid of any of this sh*te that we have left after witnessing its "capabilities" in Ukraine.

Anyway, your concern about Polish military industry and army is truly touching. There are, however, more pressing matters that country currently known as Russia needs to worry about.

@Novichok

You keep repeating the same old bullcr*p over and over again. Keep on dreaming about the HIV-ridden abortion hell being the "last white hope" but don't expect people who are less detached from reality to fall for this nonsense.

As for America, I already told you - America always does what's best for America, and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.