Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 5

@Novichok
Then none of us have any friends. Can we be friends Novi?

Meanwhile in the war, where lots of Orcs are being turned into mincemeat, reports are now coming out that Russian courts have intervened and forced more than 9000 men that were mobilized illegally back to Russia. Turns out that the old and medically infirm probably shouldn't be on the front lines and dying. Looks like my new friend Novi is safe if he gets to Russia. Praise be to Comrade Stalin and happy gulag biatches!

Yes Russia is too poor to make ammo. And too drunk as well - the "workers" in those munitions factories are plastered by breakfast. Whatever they make will be the wrong size with faulty fuses, just like your Vietnamese shoes and your North Korean tv.

That was last summer, today no more. Russians are also troubled with shortages. Like in communist times, so they feel like at home. :):):)

ZORAN MILANOVIC, PRESIDENT OF CROATIA AGAINST GERMAN TANKS

WATCH

bitchute.com/video/RYzmqJPQkWfQ/

BREAKING Croatian President Zoran Milanovic is now on the Ukraine kill list.

twitter.com/FiorellaIsabelM/status/1620417502873550848

Ukrops can only accept to blow his dick.

That is normal muscle flexing before real negotiations. Russians will be allowed to keep the Crimea as a territory subject for further complex negotiations but they will have to withdraw from all other regions. Also, pay reparations and send their war criminals to the Hague.


So there is our fave balance coz the new Pres of Czechia is proUkrainian. Ha!!!

Sharing an article for you, dear supporters of Russia, to enjoy:

washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/estonia-west-russia-losing-weapons-production-race

Here's a juicy little excerpt:

Russia's defense industry has "almost doubled" its prewar ammunition production rates, according to a senior NATO member defense official who estimated that Ukrainian forces could face as many as 10,000 incoming rounds per day

Meanwhile, last week, thanks to the NYTimes we learned that the United States plans to ramp up its artillery production sixfold over the next two years. This would bring monthly production volumes to 90,000 artillery shells.

In other words, it will take the United States 2 years, to get to less than a third of the level of munition production Russia currently enjoys - 90,000 shells vs 300,000 shells. Europe is totally screwed, of course, with Scholz saying it will take at least 20 billion Euro and 15 years to build new munitions plants and that would merely replace the munitions provided to Ukraine.

NYTimes link: nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.amp.html

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Yes, who started that rumor that has been repeated endlessly here ? (Crickets without sources)

That`s a clear sign of the crisis in your production - last summer Russians were shelling Ukrainians with 60.000 rounds per day. Where did 50.000 rounds go? Did Russian soldiers sell them for vodka in the black market????


Are the US the only supplier of ammo to Ukraine???

Let me quote these legendary holy words, sir: You forgot Poland!!!!! hahahahaha

as well as other countries in Europe.

PS. The article about Polish production says that workers do 3 shifts per day and comparably, the employment rose threefold..

Yes, that is a staggering number. When you look at it historically, however, even Russia is still in the junior leagues with its peak consumption rate of 60K daily. Look at this below chart. Germany, when it was being defeated on every front, was still going through 300K a day, or 9 million shells a month. Testament to German industry, that in the 1940s they managed what modern governments still struggle to arrange.


No, but I gave you two links. The second one discusses European capabilities as well. The bottom line is that the United States is the only country with any kind of capacity to supply munitions, and even it is struggling. European plans are centered on refurbishing some Soviet-era facility in Romania with German money, and this "mega-plant" will only really ramp up production in the second half of the 2020s.

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Yes, russia is an inherently violent and warlike fourth rate country that is an immediate threat to all its neighbors and more broadly all of civilization (since russian values revolve only around thuggishness, falsehood, narcissism and self-pity) ... we already knew that.

What's the point?

Yes, Russians are trying to follow the example but their production capabilities are far from German ones. Your production lines are old and obsolete. If there are new ones, they will soon be overexploited and broken, too, while the spare parts from the West won`t come due to sanctions. Ha!

The point is people like you who keep posting how Russia is running out of ammo lie.

You will laugh, but in both the United States and Russia, much of the artillery shell production equipment is aged 80 years or more. So yes, we are literally still competing with Nazi Germany.

If you are curious, find some photos online of what these plants look like. Not a lot of CNC machines or computers around. Of course, the plant the EU wants to refurbish in Romania will be state-of-the-art, and compliant with all ecological regulations and be absolutely safe to workers from any occupational hazards. This is why it will take the EU the better part of ten years to build this and launch this, and as always it will be too late to the party. Meanwhile, Russia and America will churn out colossal amounts of munitions in plants that our grandparents left us.

BS. Russia is as likely to run out of ammo as Russians are out of vodka.
Germans had enough to keep killing until May 9, 1945. After how many years of the bloodiest war ever?


Hey, pawian, still thinking Russia will run out of ammo, little naive boy? They will run out of Uks to kill first.


...and run by a crew that is by the law 50% LGBT.

Nazi Germany throws generally a long shadow...somehow astounding after so many decades...

I've never written that (as far as I can recall). They have been scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of quality but that could just be russian bumbling (it's a country full of incompetent bumblers which is why they always have crazy fires and accidents and things that don't happen in more advanced countries).

It's f@cking impressive, no doubt about it. As impressive as German industrial prowesss, is how woefully unprepared the USSR was. From that chart, you can see that in 1941 the Soviet Union was firing less shells than Russia in the autumn of 2022 after a series of setbacks in a much, much smaller war. Even by the time the war was won, the Soviet Union is still producing less shells than Germany. When you read Soviet military history, this is where a strong emphasis is always made. We may have had tens of thousands of tanks, and hundreds of thousands of guns, but we always had less munitions to fire out of them than the enemy. This is a huge part of why we lost 26M people and the Germans only 4-6M.

Like first artificial satellite, first man in space and so on?

It isn`t a lie. Last year 60.000 rounds a day, today 10.000 - 15.000. That tells sth.


I am like a boy but not little anymore. :):):)


While the production in Poland will rise each day..... :):):)

This seems to be true, but it does not necessarily mean what you say. It does mean "something", of course.

From what I have seen printed in various places, Russia was sitting on something like 9-15M artillery shells before the start of the war (2 months of Nazi Germany consumption 1944). If we really did fire 60,000 x 365, then that would mean we have depleted our stockpiles (60K x 365 works out to some 20+ million). In that case, yes, we would've been finding ourselves at the new baseline dictated by our production capacity (10K a day, it seems). Not "running out of ammo", but settling on a lower but more sustainable rate. But this is if we really did fire 60K a day, non stop. What some Russian bloggers are saying is that a few million shells were set aside for the offensive operations this spring, so you could easily see the rate go back up to 60K or more.

Excluded from this entire discussion is what we managed to get from North Korea (allegedly the largest artillery stockpiles on the planet), and Iran.

Where did you find that chart actually?


Could you please stop that?

You would/did say the same about Germany....and it's just wrong. No people is inherently violent and warlike!

It's an infographic produced by the Ukrainians actually, a guy named Volodymyr Dacenko. But you can find similar charts, without Ukraine included of course, in academic literature.

Found a little snippet about the North Korean artillery forces from the Carnegie Endowment's site:

In terms of its conventional munitions, the KPA also beats the ROK Armed Forces in quantity but not quality. The KPA Ground Force has about 14,100 artillery systems, or more than two times as many as the ROK military, which boasts approximately 6,000.24 Among these artillery systems, North Korea has 5,500 multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), or more than twenty times as many as the 200 the ROK military possesses.

carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/18/state-of-north-korean-military-pub-81232

So, these troglodytes somehow managed to amass 20X more artillery than their southern cousins, and more than any other army in Europe except Russia. This is why it is so funny to me, when Western journalists begin having fits of joy when they report that Russia has "resorted" to reaching out to the DPRK.

They laughed the same way about Iranian drones, and then suddenly... the Ukrainian electrical grid was exposed as completely defenseless against these systems.

I hope that one day China gets off its ass, stops trying to sit on the fence, and does for us what America does for Ukraine. Their support is completely unsatisfactory to date.

I read that some USian expert totally calculates with a war between the US and China in the next two years....I guess China will then have it's own set of problems.

Not that they then ask Russia for help! ;)

washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/27/us-general-minihan-china-war-2025/

@Bratwurst Boy

China should help us now, to deter America from intervening too forcefully in Taiwan. The more American tanks and armored fighting vehicles get burned in Ukraine, the less will be available for Taiwan.

So far China is treating us like some distant family relation that is misbehaving. The most I have read about their "support", is that we have teams of engineers from the drone company DJI, integrated into some of our units, that help disable and track Ukrainian drones manufactured by the same company. Also, they have closed the gap in chips which developed after Taiwan and South Korea closed us off. But they have not sent us any ATGMs (unlike us, they have a Javelin equivalent). They have not sent us any personal protective equipment, but we are grateful that they at least don't forbid their businesses from supplying our forces. We're not asking for handouts anyway, but it seems the Chinese are reluctant to even sell to us. They're afraid that some new sanctions will be applied against them, even though we in Russia know that these sanctions will be applied anyway - if not today, then tomorrow. The West does not play fair, and to pretend that they will reward China for its behavior is foolish.

Xi is coming to Moscow in February, let's see what happens.

Nah....I don't see US troops/armor on the ground in Taiwan....it will be the fleets!


Sitting on the fence....


Oh they already do....no sanctions....no treating like a pariah....could you imagine the many western firms in China packing their bags? China has bought alot of shares of the western economy, sometimes whole firms and industries in the past...imagine that all gone!

I doubt Xi wants to repeat the error Putin did with ending/complicating russian energy trade....

Well, if this is all true about the war of attrition and Russia/North Korea/China being able to produce more artillery shells in the long run than the West, then the conclusion is obvious - there can be no long run. The matter has to be resolved quickly by a mass attack with maximum combined NATO forces. If we lose in the long run, we have to defeat our enemies quickly. Logical.

That's why I doubt this is true. If it was, the tanks would already be rolling east. If a random idiot on some obscure forum can see that, then western analysts/strategists would definitely see that too.

Oh, and I don't give a f*ck about nukes. If they fly, they fly. Everybody dies then, so it's a draw. I can live (metaphorically not literally, of course) with that.

Rakiety tu, rakiety tam!
Rakiety chuja zrobią nam! :)

@Bobko
Really good point on factory regulations regarding production in the US and EU. Very good point really regarding the bull$hit regulations for Green and ultra-safe production facilities. The US though can change that rather quickly if needed and if things escalated.

If the US ever switched to war time economic mode though, all those numbers would be worthless. There is no stopping a motivated US production line and there are still none better in the world when it matters most. Lets also not forget those secret reserves of resources the US has stashed all over the world. While Russia is currently in war time production mode, no one else is. Shelling can be increased, but missiles can not. Shelling is bad, missiles are worse. Without the technology, missile production is very limited, hence the repurposing of missiles over the last few months.

The good news is, more Orcs died today. More Russian mommies are learning of their children dying needlessly and the pressure on little Vlad continues to grow.

How can you complain about "new colonialism" when drunk Russian rapists are actually fighting an "old colonialism" war in real time ?

The Ukrainians don't want you there and never will

@Bobko
That's where you are very very very wrong, Tsars of the past did care about their relations with Kiev, Minsk, Warsaw, Vienna and Berlin. Which is why they knew how and when to tread softly or harshly.

What we can see now is obvious play from Putin's regime to wilfully ignore Kiev, Ukrainians, Poles and all other Slavs in general and their opinions, only taking in to account American interests which are minimal.

It works well for Russia in this way cause theoretically Russia can gain a lot without much protest from U.S.A, Russia's problem however is not U.S.A, who are only opportunistically using the discontent in Eastern Europe to their favour... They are not the instigators however, no matter how much Putin is paranoid or sure about it, the instigators were young Ukrainians who had enough of it all, and there are growing numbers of Russians and Belarusians day by day who start to tolerate Putin's actions more and more, to such degree that other factions in Russia will gain influence and take over. Ukrainians know this, Poland knows this and Belarusian opposition knows this. Stalling for time works not in Russias favour, so for every day that goes without a peace treaty. There more Putin is digging his grave while telling everyone he is digging trenches basically...