Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 8

Again, the reasons for that are plausible. Ukraine needs some of its' people to keep the economy afloat. The West has helped tremendously so far, but it has become clear that Ukraine needs to be self-reliant to some degree if it wants to survive, after the Republicans blocked further aid and Orban did the same in the EU. Additionally there are limits to how many conscripts can be properly trained and equipped, even with Western assistance.

Let us look at the facts. Ukraine has been fighting for 22 months now. They must have lost more than 100k people by now, and probably inflicted higher casualties on the Russians. Several Ukrainian towns and many villages have been completely destroyed. Each day they absorb missiles and artillery fire that in a war between Russia and NATO could be aimed at Polish cities. Each day of combat puts additional strain on the Russian military. Assisting Ukrainians in their fight against Russians is the most cost-effective thing we can do.


That sounds more like a scenario that Putin wants to believe in than anything else.


Non-binding for the West. Russia under Putin made afterwards a legal commitment to respect Ukraine's borders.

Not to use nukes against them.

Still keeping this promise.

You are past the point of assistance.

You, Germans, along with other High Moral Grond idiots, are now war criminals and US who*res. What a way to show up on the global scene...

How long are you planning on aiding and abetting in the mayhem? Waiting for an email from DC while men are dying and you economy is tanking?

Germany is predicted to be the only major European economy to contract this year as the recession lingers

Nothing to do with aid to the war in Ukraine.......

Assistance, participation...who cares...Involvement. Germany should have given the US MICC the middle finger and treated U vs R as an internal dispute between two ex-Soviet republics.

If anything, it was in Germany's interest to help end it. Germans, under orders from DC, are doing everything possible to prolong it - even when it hurts them.

I am not even going into the optics of German tanks killing Russians.

Really?. You need to check up on your history, Ukraine became independant of the USSR over 30 years ago......a lifetime for many.

...and squandered that oppo by mumbling something about NATO and sh*it like this.

Try Mexico mumbling about inviting China's PLA and their Navy to Tijuana and watch the US...
Do you think Biden would be smiling and bsing how Mexico is an independent and sovereign country that is free to form a military alliance with anyone?

Why am I even wasting my time....

I have no idea!But you are wasting your time pedalling false $hit and changing the subject......please stay on topic.

So how does Mexico going rogue look to you? Any chance of a Chinese naval base in Tijuana because Mexico decided to join China?
Now you know why there is a war in Ukraine.

It's exactly the subject.

Ukraine losing 800 troops a day - ex-NATO officer
Kiev's manpower is "significantly worn out" as Russia's "strategy of attrition" is taking effect, a former German Air Force Colonel has said

Yes, Russia haters, you read it correctly..."German", not Russian...

No, I am not happy that 800 men become casualties every day in a war with a known outcome.

You're right, everyone knows that Ukraine will win.

We all know the known outcome

Udmurtia defeated due to having a joke army with joke weapons
Udmurtian leaders in the Hague pretending they are senile and incontinent
Out of the Black Sea
the Baltic closed
A client state of China and Iran
Udmurtian oil no longer needed by democracies
No Starbucks or Macs for Udmurtian thieves
No football for Udmurtian losers

@Tacitus
While plausible, the idea of not fully mobilizing is completely nonsensical. The idea of not moving to a full war time economy is also completely nonsensical. Things cannot simply go on as normal in the western part of Ukraine while thousands are being killed and wounded in the east. What is the reasoning behind no full mobilization? How does that fit in with any strategy to defeat Russia? There are more questions now than there were two years ago, and I am sorry, but I no longer believe Z when he speaks. His actions and leadership does not align with his words. To the last Ukrainian? Really? If that was the case, everyone would be fighting that could be fighting and that is not happening. A lot of Lexus and Mercedes with Ukrain plates driving around Krakow. A lot of Ukraine men 20 to 50 wandering around Christmas market drinking. Things are just not adding up for Ukraine, and I am betting US congressmen have these questions and many more to be answered.

Hear, hear.

@PolAmKrakow


What is nonsensical about this? We can disagree about the economic logic, (though I would argue that the lack further funds from the West underlines that this is a valid concern) but it seems pretty clear Ukraine lacks the means to train and equip hundreds of thousands of recruits. Untrained and unequipped recruits wont manke much of a difference on the modern battlefield and Ukraine can not afford to waste their lifes so casually as the Russian leadership does.

Make no mistake, if NATO ends up at war with Russia, then even Poland won't just draft millions of young people into the army for the same reasons. The Polish army will probably struggle to just absorb the trained veterans.

The Ukrainians have done tremendous damage to the Russian army at little expense to the Western countries.

Case in point, the Ukrainians have apparantly shot down 3 SU-34 bombers today.

All those losses and the heavy use (and thus the shortening of their life cycle) will add up in the end.

@Tacitus
I understand your point of view. I am looking at Ukraine from the US perspective and asking the question of why are things the way they are.

You want big money and weapons from the US? Fully mobilize, and I guarntee that congress see's Ukraine differently. You really want to win the war? Start making your own weapons and make sure everyone in the country is pulling the rope in one direction. Actions speak louder than words. The EU and Ukraine want the US to back this war. Ok, great, show the US that Ukraine will do as they are told and will fully commit to beating Russia. Because right now, to me, and all other Americans, Ukraine looks like they are only partially committed to winning.

If Z called up sleepy Joe and said "Hey Joe, we just drafted a half million men. We are mobilizing, and we are going to strom the front lines. We need your help." Sleepy Joe gets on the phone to congress and passes on that message. Congress says "finally we can beat the Russians, lets get it done." And it would happen just like that. Why? Because everyone in Congress is older than dirt, and they have hated the Russians since the end of WW2. That money and weapon flow would become a tidal wave very quickly.

This is the American way. Definitely not the European way, and thats ok. But you have to sell the US on spending more. All the talk and all the words from Z mean nothing now. Its just talk. Almost two years of talk and billions of dollars, and what is the US return on investment?

...and I say:

Why?
What's in it for us?
What do we get for another 100 billion bucks we have to print and steal from our kids and their kids?
Why do we give a fvck if Ukraine is "free" or part of Russia the way it was for decades?


Whatever you are on, take less tomorrow.

For once in my life - I agree with Tacitus. Ukraine cannot transition to a "war economy" and total mobilization. That train has left the station. If it could be done, it had to be done last Spring.

1) All Ukraine-origin tax revenues are used to support the military effort.

2) This means the entirety of the civilian budget is maintained by Western donations. So, in a way, Ukraine is already spending 100% of its available resources on war.

3) Ukraine is already cheating its citizens to save money. People that died at the front and whose families are owed $400K in compensation, never get recorded as dead. People who suffered injuries as a result of combat duty, have to go through ten rungs of hell to receive the free treatment they are legally entitled to.

4) The government's popularity is plummeting, even without drastic reductions in state expenditure on social welfare, or a polarizing mobilization drive.

5) A large portion of Ukraine's economy is "underground". Many people do not pay taxes. Now that the government is trying to update recruitment rosters using tax data, even more people will stop disclosing their income. This will further increase the strain on the budget.

6) Due to their two years of non stop lies about "celebrating this summer in Crimea" and "tomorrow Russia will fall apart into a thousand pieces" - the population is totally unprepared for the sudden shift in mood which has occurred over the past month. After being told they are winning for two years, it will be very difficult to explain to the population why a further half a million people need to mobilized. This is the reverse side of the medal, when it comes to Ukraine's amazing successes in information warfare - starting with the Ghost of Kiev. They lied so much, that they managed to convince themselves - and are now in for a very rude awakening.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Maidan 3.0, in much uglier colors, if Zelensky tries to push through a 500K mobilization in a context of collapsing Western aid.

He will have no choice but to print money. This will trigger hyperinflation. On top of printing money, he will have to significantly increase the tax burden on the population. Hyperinflation and heavy taxation will trigger a collapse of what little remains of the economy. A collapse of the economy, will trigger an even bigger exodus of working age persons from Ukraine.

In short, a recipe for total collapse. Ukraine is living on borrowed time.

In short, Russia will win.

The only two questions are:
1. How many will die?
2. How to convince PF Russia-hating fanatics?

Since I like definitions...

Ukraine winning - reclaiming CDL within the next 20 years.
Russia winning - keeping CDL for the next 20 years.

One thing Ukraine could do, now that I'm thinking about it... is perform some kind of education campaign with their population.

The purpose of the campaign would be "Stop Buying iPhones and BMWs".

Right now, Ukraine has an artificially strong exchange rate. The National Bank of Ukraine is using the healthy amount of Western fx injections it has, to maintain a favorable rate of the Hrivnya to USD. It intervenes in the market constantly, to keep that rate within comfortable bounds for Ukrainian purchasing power.

This has had an important effect of insulating the population from the maximum effects of the war, and keeping up some semblance of normalcy.

The stupid population, however, is using this strong Hrivnya to buy more imported goods.

If last year, Ukraine got some $45B in financial aid (just making up numbers), then probably some $36B immediately went back to the West to pay for phones, cars, microwave ovens, and hair dryers (again, making up numbers).

The enemy of the National Bank of Ukraine then, is the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Unlike the NBU, whose mandate is to control inflation and unemployment, the Ministry of Finance is actually responsible for paying all the expenses of the government.

For the Ministry of Finance, it would actually be quite good if the exchange rate was let go, and Ukrainians were suddenly able to purchase less imports. This would mean, more Western capital actually staying in the country and working in productive fashion.

Anyway, just thoughts.

No, it won`t. Ukraine will remain independent, will join the EU and NATO while Russia will collapse under sanctions.


Let imperialist Russians keep the territories they are occupying now. A little patience will work wonders. In 20 years` time, people living there will hold a referendum to return to Ukraine. Life in European Ukraine will be better than life in Asian Russia. SImple

My thoughts: US taxpayers getting fvcked with no happy ending in sight...

They will be fekked 20 times more when Russia wins.
Why are Americans so dumb??? Is it in the water?? Was it magically contaminated with germs of stupidity by native Indians who wanted to retaliate on white invaders for stealing the lands and bisons????

On the plus side:

1) Europe is now hooked on American oil and LNG

2) Europe will order billions of dollars of weapons from Lockheed and Boeing.

3) Europe will not be competing with America any time soon, not with energy costs like that.

4) America will get the best Ukrainian engineers and scientists, after they stop for a ham sandwich in Frankfurt airport.

"Protesters are lobbying city councils to freeze urban renewal projects and buy military equipment instead, part of a wider call to put Ukraine on a war footing." NYT

Sorry Bobko, I call bull$hit on not being able to mobilize. They have no choice but to mobilize. Z has been spouting his rhetoric about success this whole time, and the counter offensive is a complete failure. Ukraine did not do as it was told. Wasted billions in support fighting for Bakhmut, and now are having soldiers get killed or wounded in numbers they cannot support. If they do not mobilize, the US is not going to send more money. It really is that simple. Instead, they are building parks and investing in other infrastructure that has zero to do with winning, and now people want it to stop. Z is frankly just full of $hit, and his actions do not support his words. But I agree, a Maidan 3.0 could be in the works. Not because he will do a mobilization, but because he wont. The Ukraine people want to win, not talk about winning when not making total effort it will take.

@pawian
The US wont be fvcked when Ukraine is lost. It wont effect the US one bit. Ukraine is never getting in NATO, the US, Hungary, Germany and France will never approve it for one simple reason. They know Russia will come back for the rest of Ukraine and Ukraine is not worth a world war. It really is common sense. It can join the EU or not, but what value does it bring to the EU? None in my opinion.

On a bright note for Ukraine, they are closer to geting f-16s today. The Neatherlands is making them ready. And Japan is now selling Patriot missiles to the US that can then be shipped to Ukraine. Ukraine will get weapons, but should not get any more money.

nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/russian-assets-ukraine.html

Some really positive news, the West and specifically the US is moving closer to being able to seize the $300 billion of frozen Russian assets that will then be used to fund Ukraine and continue the war against Russia

If this happens there will be an inescapable irony with Russian assets funding the war against .....Russia :-D

How deliciously ironic, also, that this became such a hot topic of discussion when the West ran out of their own funds to give. Russian-subsidized virtue signaling!

"Guys, do you know how to make the smartest investment ever, even better? Do it with the other guy's money!"

Also, wonderful, is that it is the US leading the charge. The US - which has all $5B out of that $300B. Belgium, which has $200B+ doesn't seem so excited.

I'm only worried, that the so called "Global South", will have an even harder time buying your argument that you are doing all this to defend "the rules based international order". They just might think it smells a little bit of... theft.

This may cause a domino effect of other countries pulling their reserves out of the West, with unpredictable consequences for global stability. Probably why the Financial Times ran an editorial today, where it argued why this would be a very shortsighted and stupid decision.

I know, I know... what you will say. "Shortsighted" and "stupid" are the most popular middle names of Western politicians. Well, I'm just not sure that's something to be very proud about.

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This one Hungary ruins the whole argument. Please..... :):):) You forgot Poland sort of joke. :):):)


This argument is fully wrong. Please......


Amasing you can`t see any values. Are you also in the blue mood before Christmas????? Remember, nothing is only black or white. :):):)

I see dynamic of that process from inside, and I would say - more of that "sanctions" please. ;)

Historically lowest unemployment rates, salaries in real manufacturing sector grows faster than living expenses, more and more products that produced here.

Even blue cheese and brie of relatively good quality became available from local suppliers (and yes, it is better than polish brie that I bring from Vilnius during my last trip and dumped immediately after tasting). ;)