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Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 8



Ironside
31 Dec 2023  #1711

I realize no such thing. I'm willing to consider that Ukraine may be on a similar level of immorality to Russia

It is the baggage and everything that it entails to live in the sphere of Russian MIR. From that point of view, anything else is more moral even if is lacking.

Bobko
31 Dec 2023  #1712

In its defense, not the only one.

No, it finds itself in good company - it's true.

The only reason they are misbehaving, like with these recent attacks on Belgorod - is because they are becoming desperate. It's already a recognizable pattern.

1) When things were going badly last summer, pre-Kharkov and Kherson, they killed Dugina. At the time, in typical idiotic fashion, the Ukrainians contradicted each other. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that "we are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one". The head of the GRU, Budanov, instead announced that the unraveling of the Russkiy Mir had begun and that more assassinations would follow.

2) Then things actually started going decently well for Ukraine, on the battlefield, and these attacks stopped.

3) Fast forward to this spring, when they had their ass handed to them in Bakhmut, after screaming for months that they would never give it up. Just as it became clear that Bakhmut was a done deal, the "Freedom of Russia Legion" attacks Belgorod.

4) The counter-offensive starts, and Ukraine again refrains from most kind of bullsh*t activity. However, then it becomes obvious it's not going so well. So again, Ukraine starts making illogical amphibious landings in Crimea, on the Left Bank of the Dnieper, and finally crashing drones into Moscow skyscrapers.

The same is happening now. The West is flushing them down the toilet, 2024 looks like a year that will be entirely on the defensive, and his popularity is down in the dumps. What to do? Attack Belgorod!

Belgorod is a city of 300,000, located about 40 km from the border. Another 50km away, is Kharkov - a Ukrainian city with 2.5M people. Every time Belgorod gets hit, Kharkov gets a punch back that's twice as hard. Zelensky knows this. It shows how especially cynical and illogical these attacks on Belgorod are. They are done, just because they can be done.

Ironside
31 Dec 2023  #1713

2024 looks like a year that will be entirely on the defensive, and his popularity is down in the dumps

I doubt that. That would be the year they will get their F16 at the very least. Also, the UK will give them some more new rockets.

Bobko
31 Dec 2023  #1714

I doubt that.

Then you are arguing with the consensus of nearly every single reasonable analyst of this war.

No money, no ammunition, no men = no offensives. During this year they will attempt to stockpile munitions, and form new reserves through additional waves of mobilization.

F16

Less important than the Storm Shadow or SCALP-ER, that was already given, and did not end up being a game changer.

Reasons:

1) Cannot operate from unprepared runways (i.e. can't take off from a random highway). A big reason Ukraine managed to preserve some number of its Su-24s and MiG-29s is because they dispersed them throughout the country, and operate them guerilla style from pop up locations. Soviet jets were designed with this in mind. American F-16s need a bunch of guys to walk down the runway, keeping their eyes peeled for pebbles (called an FOD Walk). If we know where they are based, that airfield will not exist within several hours.

2) Maintenance - you have to train not just pilots, but support personnel as well. You have to create depots with spare parts.

3) End of the day, it's an old jet, that lights up in a huge way on the radar. Russia is not exactly Somalia, when it comes to air defense systems.


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Novichok
31 Dec 2023  #1715

They are done, just because they can be done.

Memo to morons: Before you act, calculate the upside U and the downside D. If D >> U, don't do it.

cms neuf
31 Dec 2023  #1716

Udmurtia is Somalia when it comes to air defense - all kinds of installations have been destroyed by precision western weapons.

Their own attacks meanwhile involve flying 40 dollar alibaba drones into tower blocks

Ukraine has never claimed Belgorod as it's own territory. Udmurtia on the other hand expects the people of Kharkiv to welcome them as brothers - in the only way they know, by bombing and stealing

Bobko
31 Dec 2023  #1717

Udmurtia is Somalia

Masovia, meanwhile, watches an Udmurtian rocket fly 40KM deep into its territory - and the best comeback they can come up with... is "NEXT TIME WE WILL SHOOT IT DOWN!".

Masovian anti-air defense - best in world.

Novichok
31 Dec 2023  #1718

is "NEXT TIME WE WILL SHOOT IT DOWN!".

In defense of Masovians...How many Chinese spy balloons flew over the #1 superpower?

Bobko
31 Dec 2023  #1719

How many Chinese spy balloons flew over the #1 superpower?

All the Chinese needed to do, was to scare the pants off of America earlier - and they could have done this entirely legally.

Russia and America don't have to send balloons over each other's territories (at least until recently), because we have the Open Skies Treaty. This allows us both to fly over each other's ICBM silos, and submarine pens, army bases, etc and do as much snooping as we want.

Source: 2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102337.htm#:~:text=The%20Open%20Skies%20Treaty%20establishes,%2C%20Belarus%2C%20and%20Georgia).

Novichok
31 Dec 2023  #1720

This allows us both to fly over each other's ICBM silos,

Next time, drop something that goes boom on Planned Parenthood and transgender "clinics".

Tacitus
31 Dec 2023  #1721

The Ukrainians will most likely spend most of the year on the defensive. And if Avdiivka is anything to go by, their odds are not looking all that bad.

Killing Russians By The Truckload Around Avdiivka, Ukraine's M-2 Fighting Vehicles Are Showing How Russia Loses-And Ukraine Wins

forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/30/killing-russians-by-the-truckload-around-avdiivka-ukraines-m-2-fighting-vehicles-are-showing-how-russia-loses-and-ukraine-wins/?sh=3ba5b51f1ed6

Turns out all weapons and equipment the West designed to defend against the Russian onslaught are pretty good at doing just that. The incompetence of the Russian military certainly helps as well in this endeavour.

If Russia intents to grind Ukraine down, they are doing it wrong. So let us have some optimism for new year.

Bobko
31 Dec 2023  #1722

Next time, drop something that goes boom

The Open Skies Treaty establishes a regime of UNARMED aerial observation flights over the entire territory of its 25 signatories (North Atlantic Treaty Organization Allies, Eastern European members of the former Warsaw Pact, and Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia). The Treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in observing military or other activities of concern to them.

No bombs, sorry sir. Just cameras and other equipment.

Novichok
31 Dec 2023  #1723

From Newsweek.com:

A Republican senator has said Ukraine could give land to Russia in "America's best interest" to put an end to the war there.
Ohio Senator J.D. Vance said it was preposterous to think that the Ukrainian military was going to force Russian troops back to the border crossed during the invasion in February 2022.


Nothing to give. CDL is already Russian by a democratic referendum and UN rules of self-determination. See Kosovo.

Alien
1 Jan 2024  #1724

democratic referendum

Don't tell fairy tales about democracy in russia.

Novichok
1 Jan 2024  #1725

A referendum is the highest form of democracy. If you know of one case where a Crimean voter was told "Vote yes or we will hurt you" please post the name.

Velund
1 Jan 2024  #1726

youtube.com/watch?v=PGmL_TrLFWs

Those who wish can watch how on December 31 orcs in Moscow fight for the last hedgehogs in the supermarket to prepare a holiday dinner. ;)

PolAmKrakow
1 Jan 2024  #1727

youtube.com/watch?v=PGmL_TrLFWs

Interesting video. Lots of western items available. Sanctions not keeping things from entering Russia at all. Yet, these western companies had to take it in the a$$ on their real estate because of cancel culture and this war. Imagine how stock holders feel when they see videos like this and their companies lost hundreds of millions leaving Russia. Looks pretty stupid.

Another thing, I noticed was how many young Russian men of fighting age were in the video. It doesnt look like little Vlad is touching the blue eyed Russian population when sending men to the front lines.

Velund
1 Jan 2024  #1728

touching the blue eyed

You make too far reaching conclusions on a single video (you can look other video on same channel - Russell regularly post them taken at different places).

1. This is Southwest of Moscow, pretty expensive neighborhood compared with eastern and southeastern parts at same distance from center. There is simply less recent migrants compared to average. But extra 20 km further from Kremlin to the same SW direction and you'll see much more middle-asian face features around.

2. Most people here use delivery now instead of personal visit to a supermarket/mall. I see many people who just walking their kids and shopping at once, some sort of family time. Weather is not so good now for walking open air... So, I expect that most of people in the video is from nearest blocks.

cms neuf
1 Jan 2024  #1729

Paused that a times just to get of a flavor of a heartbreaking Udmurtian Christmas

What a toilet that Globus is - I forgot about them, they are still in Czech but no way would they be competitive in Poland.

No eggs, horrible looking meat, ugly dried fish - kilometers of the stuff, miserable looking customers. The shopping mall is a ghost town - when Russell steps into the empty food court it is a truly soul crushing moment- nobody is there because there is no Macs or KFC, just your own rubbish versions of it

Modern life is leaving Udmurtia behind

I especially enjoyed the cheap Udmurtian "champagne" with security tags on - here in bountiful Poland you can pick that up for 12 zloty in Rossmann and nobody would even dream of stealing it.

Velund
1 Jan 2024  #1730

Modern life is leaving Udmurtia behind

We will stop for a while and allow you to go forward, in a direction of "transgender clinic", and further to the hell... ;)

As for the rest - enjoy. ;) I, personally, prefer Auchan, it is a bit cheaper overall, and more choices.

Concerning security tags - it is shop decision, and put on any alcohol that is priced above some threshold.

PolAmKrakow
1 Jan 2024  #1731

@Velund
I have watched a bunch of video's from various sources on life in Russia. Moscow I have been to, and know people there. They are not being touched by conscription. Not surprising for me really. The Jack Daniels, and other items in the grocery store, as well as other imported items in the mall, was interesting. Sanctions like the ones imposed are not a threat for any country now that sees that video.

amiga500
1 Jan 2024  #1732

Kania and Velund will be well pleased with this one. :) I sheepishly have to admit, for once excellent work ruskis.

Consequences of the night attack of orks on Ukraine
Lviv. the enemy targeted two objects of national memory:
- Museum of Roman Shukhevych in Bilogorshche.

twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1741705760591986952

Torq
1 Jan 2024  #1733

- Museum of Roman Shukhevych in Bilogorshche.

Thanks for the lovely New Year news, Amiga :)

Falling debris from a Russian drone in Lviv on Jan. 1 left a local museum dedicated to historical figure Roman Shukhevych on fire, local officials said.

kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-in-lviv-leaves-museum-on-fire/

UPA museum burns

I sheepishly have to admit, for once excellent work ruskis.

Indeed, that was some proper dekurvisation right there. :)

pawian
1 Jan 2024  #1734

The Jack Daniels, and other items in the grocery store, Sanctions like the ones imposed are not a threat for any country now that sees that video.

Sanctions work fine but Russians produce their own whisky.

RUSSIA is ratcheting up output of "fake" Scotch as its giant spirits industry responds to Western sanctions, The Herald can reveal.
The nation's vodka distilleries have dramatically increased production of whisky since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
And many of their new brands are designed to mimic Scottish, Irish and American imports hit by a partial international boycott sparked by the war.


cms neuf
1 Jan 2024  #1735

Maybe the JD has been sitting around since before the war started ? If that's your evidence that sanctions don't work it's pretty thin

Sanctions are already tanking the economy - that's why the main industries of oil, gas and defense are destroyed for ever.

Properly enforced by German, French they would hurt even more

Velund
1 Jan 2024  #1736

main industries of oil, gas and defense are destroyed for ever.

ROTFL. Especially about destroyed defence industry, that (probably in agony) tripled the output and hiring, hiring, hiring... ;)

PolAmKrakow
1 Jan 2024  #1737

@pawian
The propaganda from both sides is something to see. Reality though is that Russia does not have the resources to produces all these fakes, while still trying to produce all the items needed for the war. Little Vlad is not going to sacrifice warehouse space to make Adidas fakes when it can be used to build missiles. Russia is getting anything they want through the middle East.

@cms neuf
Sanctions were killing the economy. But, Russia switched to full war time production, and now, though I hate to admit, Russia is raising wages, and jobs are plenty. If you have skills, you are working and making money. India's oil purchasing alone was up 40% in 2023, so Russia has money coming in. When India and China, are two of your customers, you have a large enough base to make money at reduced profit points.

People, not just PF readers, need to start looking at what is really happening and not just reading the propaganda each side produces and the media puts out. It is now 2024, and Ukraine has 11 months maximum to make a huge breakthrough. My bet though, is that if they dont have a huge move by July, the US tells Z to sit down and talk. Ukraine needs full mobilization, or it is simply killing its own people for nothing.

Tacitus
1 Jan 2024  #1738

tripled the output and hiring, hiring, hiring

Thereby creating a big bubble that is going to burst once the war against Ukraine is over. A

Torq
1 Jan 2024  #1739

a big bubble that is going to burst

Not necessarily. Weapons export is a lucrative business, even in peacetime. Besides, the industry will have to replace the equipment lost in the invasion, so there will be demand for their products long after the war is over.

Ironside
1 Jan 2024  #1740

Sanctions are already tanking the economy

Sure, especially like most of the Russian oil and GAZ TRANSFER TO Europe GOES through Ukraine.

While Germany and Ukrinia are trying to tank the Polish economy.


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