Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 8

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You guys have not been paying much attention to the sanctions packages against Russia it seems. Not to worry, most people have this same pedestrian understanding of what's been done to-date, and by whom. TBH, it is a little hard to make sense of who sanctioned who.

Here's the brass tacks:

1) Neither the EU, nor the US have applied any sanctions to Russia in the fields of agriculture, food, or medicines.

2) Here's a response from the Treasury Department this Summer:

U.S. Response The United States has not imposed sanctions on the exportation of agricultural commodities, medicine or medical devices to, from or related to Russia.

3) I know many of you are eagerly waiting for us to die from curable diseases or malnutrition, but it seems at least that your bureaucrats have decided that would be a step too far.

4) What has been happening in practice is so called "self-sanctioning". Coca Cola and McDonalds are probably the two most prominent examples. Fearing the PR backlash of continuing to do business in Russia, these companies simply exited themselves. Irritated by this, the Kremlin has been helping find those assets new owners.

5) After "self-sanctioning", there are finally Russian sanctions themselves (YES, THEY EXIST). It is in fact, Russia that has been applying sanctions onto ITS OWN imports. This is something Putin wanted to do for years, but was not able to due to it being anti-competitive under WTO rules. As a result, Russia's food industry was dominated by foreign players. The sanctions that Putin has applied, have given some considerable breathing space for Russian companies to catch up.

The bottom line is - there are no Western sanctions on food, or most normal consumer products. The companies are either leaving themselves, or being prevented from working by Russian sanctions. Basically it's that bastard Putin that is preventing the good people from securing Camembert and Brie, and not the benevolent West.

In addition to the above, there is of course a secondary effect from the broader sanctions on the financial system, which make it difficult for Western companies to repatriate their profits from Russia. However, I don't think Janet Yellen's main intent in sanctioning Sberbank, was to force McDonalds and Coke to leave Russia.

Russia's military strength is not a derivative of how easy it is for us to access a McDonald's or buy toothpaste from Colgate-Palmolive. So maybe that's why the EU and US don't care that much about it?

Regardless, thank you for the very expert analysis from CMS Neuf of the absolute spiritual nihilism of a Russian food court.

Who is going to buy Udmurtian weapons now ? When their inferiority is demonstrated every day in real time tests ?

Even thieving African and South American dictators are not that corrupt

Here's a funny article from last year for you Neufs and Mafs to read.

Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/corporate-self-sanctioning-of-russia-has-us-fearing-economic-blowback?embedded-checkout=true

Title: Corporate 'Self-Sanctioning' of Russia Has US Fearing Economic Blowback

Your bureaucrats, who you are worried are not sanctioning us enough - were starting to get concerned last year about all these American companies "self-cancelling" even though nobody told them to do it.

So it's not that they're upset that some of them still sell in Russia, they are upset that more companies left Russia than had to, thus denting the competitiveness of American businesses versus ones from France, Italy, China and Korea that barely budged.

Something like 95% of French brands continue to sell in Russia. It's the super virtue signaling Americans that bailed mostly.

@Bobko


I am sure buyers will be eager to buy tanks that launch their crews into orbit, anti-air systems that can not defend against Himars and planes that get shot down by Patriot systems... .

@Ironside


More like Poland is trying to tank the Ukrainian economy. I suppose solidarity with Ukraine ends for many Poles and the previous government when EU funds were no longer enough to compensate the losses. Dear Poles, if you manage to elevate Olaf Scholz to Ukraine's most important ally, you are doing something wrong.

I think when something costs 5X less than a Western weapon, and is still sufficient to push back against the combined war stockpiles of 40 countries - that is a good weapon.

But that's just me.

Maybe an African dictator would indeed be happier showing off his 3 shiny Leopard 2 tanks, rather than his battalion of T-72s.

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What I actually think, is that "African dictators" will be buying weapons from countries nobody associated before with weapons manufacturing. The best example is Turkey's Bayraktar drones, which everybody has now - from Uganda to Azerbaijan.

Another is Iran's missiles - which cost a fraction of Western or even Russian ones.

Korean armor is another one.

Brazilian planes are such a common thing now, that it seems wrong to place them in a list of "unexpected".

Poland could succeed also, but won't , because it is tied by the hands and legs to its Western alliance.

@Tacitus

Most countries buy weapons so they can win wars. It's not clear yet from the war in Ukraine, which weapons are better for this.

Since when has ethnocide ever bothered the French?


Ability to kill civilians doesn't really impress anyone except russians...

Meanwhile... this is what russia hates.... people that know russia and reject it

twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1741616162272624781

how on earth does russia think it can turn Odesa into a russian city without killing or expelling hundreds of thousands of people ?

I know killing and/or expelling hundreds of thousands of civilians doesn't bother the degenerate russian public but those who know better?

I'm sure the German industry has such tanks handy and will sell them to Russia for a reasonable price.
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I doubt that Germans know what solidarity means. So far you have been using this word when you wanted something for free or you want others to do your bidding, that is either charity or obeying German orders not solidarity get your vocabulary in order first.


The Ukrainian economy is non-existent as it is a third-world country, alas they have oligarchists and big international corporations that are profiteering from that war, They should share some of those profits with Ukraine if they are so inclined.

Trying to pry on Pollish taxpayers is a foul play. Where is the EU when Poland needs it? Sading shoulder to shoulder with those who aim to exploit Poland.

But would you buy weapons from a country that can seize your currency reserves and your citizens individual's wealth because you did something very bad?

It is pretty clear by now that Russian weapons are only suited for leaders who are prepared and can afford to sacrifice several times more soldiers than the other side.

The Battle for Adviika illustrates this perfectly.

It will be not too hard work to do... There is not so much banderite families moved from galicia and volyn to reunite with AFU service personnel moved to Odessa region during "banderisation" of Odessa. The rest is russian speaking natives of Odessa (russians, malorossians, jews) , that nobody will try to "convert". ;)

How much do you want to bet that your most virtuous McDonald's and Coca-Cola will be the first in line to re-enter the country the minute the war is over?

How about Spain's Inditex - the owner of Zara? The Russian market was the second largest for them after their home Spanish market.

What about GM, Ford, Mercedes and others - who built automobile factories in Russia? Do you think they enjoy watching Chinese companies move into their factories, and flood the market with Chinese cars?

Something makes me think, that a lot of these companies regret leaving Russia - now that Ukraine is disappearing from the news, and Palestine is the new cause celebre.

One example of poor losers is Carlsberg. For a long time, Russia was the company's largest market, and it was a dominant player there. Last year, when it was cool, they were patting themselves on the back, with statements like this:

"We believe leaving the country is the right thing to do in the current environment. We continue to strongly condemn the Russian invasion, which has led to so much loss of life, devastation and human tragedy."

This year, this is the story they sing:

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  IMG_0475.jpeg
  

That's what this board was dearly missing when for a short (but still too long) time Iron wasn't here - a voice of reason, articulating simple truths in succinct - even laconic - but always accurate sentences.

In the spirit of continuous New Year wishes: may PF never again be Ironless!

For most Western Businesses it is an expendable market - 2 percent of global GDP and spending power is low due to the poor level of human development. Anybody who stayed their and has their business appropriated by Putler, deserves everything they get.

You can enjoy the Chinese cars - maybe to drive to the fake KFC or the fake Zara.

Russia's New Years started out on a sour note.
St. Petersburg canceled New Year's Eve celebrations at short notice following missile attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border.
The decision not to hold a concert to see in 2024 came as a fire gutted a premises in Moscow in the latest unexplained blaze to hit a building in Russia in recent months.

Not to get your blood pressure too high up - but Inditex sold their Russian Zara business to a company from Lebanon.

That company, opened a legal entity in Dubai's free economic zone.

That company in turn, owns the former Russian Zara business (this two step was necessary to shield the Lebanese company from any troubles for transacting with Russian banks).

Inditex, as part of its deal with the Lebanese, continues to perform all the staffing work at all Russia locations, but again - through a new company that Inditex opened in Dubai.

The clothes themselves, are made at the same factories in Turkey, Bangladesh, and Pakistan where Zara's clothes are made. In many cases, even the designs remain identical.

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I can tell you another dozen stories, of where a company loudly shuts the door on Russia (in public), but then builds an entire shadow operation just to continue working there.

It's the paradox of business in Russia. Small market, poor law enforcement, entrenched corruption... but great profits.

if they knew what was good for them they'd stay out... russians are ungrateful, whiny and more trouble than they're worth....

Just as Orlen made massive profits on Poles during the pandemic, and the whole time this war has been ongoing, companies will find ways to do business in Russia. The only thing these sanctions really did was cut off access to cash in western countries. Russia simply sold more oil. While for some time Russia went without western goods and times were tough for luxury brands, those days are over.

Moscow lost more than a quarter of a million troops in 2023, according to the latest report from Ukraine's military which claims that the total number of Russian casualties since February 2022 now stands at 360,010.

All by design so the rich could get richer.

Russian slaves lost their lives or health coz they are too scared to say no to their regime. It is their fault.

I mean... we were talking about the type of stuff you can see in a mall. From that point of view, sanctions are of course less than a nuisance. That is, from the point of view of an average Joe.

But in general, of course they represent a big damper on growth. However impressive our growth is right now, it would be much more impressive if there were no sanctions.

Will they make Russia collapse? No.

Will they help Ukraine win the war? No.

Might they weaken Russia's long term potential, in regards to competition with other large states? Possibly.

Of course, I want to stay hopeful like Velund, that all these things are exactly the type of shakeup that Russia needed to wake up from the hangover of the 90s and 2000s. Adversity breeds excellence - and all that. But it's gonna be a long, hard road. One has to admit that, if one is being realistic.

"The Ukrainian economy is non-existent as it is a third-world country, alas they have oligarchists and big international corporations that are profiteering from that war, They should share some of those profits with Ukraine if they are so inclined."

what is Poland but not a third world country in disguise or maybe a second at most? Name me one company out of Poland that anyone cares about or any export besides maybe apples Poland does on a massive scale. if it was not for the eu money pouring into the economy for decades or years from the germans and us companies like google investing in Poland it would truly be a ******** with nothing of value and no companies besides ones like allegro or fakturowia aimed at their own crappy consumer use no one uses outside of Poland. name one software besides a couple of games like cyberpunk and maybe the Witcher movies or games anyone cares about that comes out of Poland not backed by western companies or players?

"Trying to pry on Pollish taxpayers is a foul play. Where is the EU when Poland needs it? Sading shoulder to shoulder with those who aim to exploit Poland."

poland only exists as not a true sh-thole due to money pouring in from germany and the eu and western investment

PiS thinks otherwise.

I see you are not degenerate but also living in the land created by your filthy mind and sick fantasy, would anyone believe that you know anything?

Stop scaremongering, it is naive, really. Russia may import luxury goods through Caucasian countries like Georgia or Armenia or can import cheap Chinese electronics. But really important stuff is out of their reach - e.g, machinery and technology for oil and gas excavation industry or spare parts for Western planes which Russians confiscated. Just two examples. Without free trade as before the war, Russia`s economy will degenerate. Slowly, but mercilessly.

Massive Russian Strikes End Year Of Ukrainian Defeats (Video)

s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/video/29.12.2023_IMR_Ukraine.mp4

Russian women don't need 4000-dollar bags or shoes. That stupidity is exclusively American.
TVs are all made in Asia. The US does not make anything with a wire Americans want. In this respect the US = Russia.

When Russia hits Odessa and 2 civilians die, to any sane person it means that Russia is targeting hard objects, not civilians.

1) Machinery - admittedly a huge problem. Russian machine-building is historically sh*t. However, with this war, the government is finally releasing truly large sums for investment into developing domestic machine-building to some adequate level. Until then, we will have to use various Dubais and Kyrgyzstans to import machines and parts for them.

2) Oil & Gas - This is a problem Russia woke up to not yesterday. We have some of the best oil and gas engineers in the world, but also we have been working for some time towards localizing key technologies. All the Western services companies in this space, like Schlumberger and Halliburton, had large research offices in Russia. They remain in Russia, under new management. Some Russian tech, is in fact already ahead of Western equivalents. An example of this is the Yamal LNG project, which uses Arctic temperatures to aid in the compression of gas.

3) Planes - Yes, a potential disaster, but now without some good "outs". The first "out", is to rely on ourselves. The government says they will build more Russian planes in the next 6 years, than in the last 40 (about 1,000 planes total). For this to happen, several important things need to happen. The Russian PD-8, and PD-14 turbofans have to be certified, and we have to find a way around manufacturing the composite material wing, which was supposed to be used on two of the planes. If we fail at this task, we'll have to buy from the Chinese, who are also wrapping up work on their own wide body jet.

The most difficult, and simultaneously most important sector is semiconductors. Right now, Russia is as far away from producing modern lithography machines, as it is from the Moon. The government is allocating peanuts towards this job (I guess the hope is that we will design architectures but the Chinese will actually make chips for us). Meanwhile, we can only produce chips which were considered modern in the West circa 2008. It's more than enough to make some rocket or tank, but not enough to participate as equals in any other modern space.

More civilians die in Chicago on any weekend...

I just wanted to expand a little bit on my point #1 in post 1769.

ALL COUNTRIES are sh*t at machine building, except for Germany, Japan, Austria, Finland, and Switzerland.

Yes, that means Americans and Brits also cannot fabricate even a screwdriver without using precision machinery from those countries.

China is trying to build some things now, and we're testing them out in Russia, but they're still not quite at the level of those other guys.

I'd say we have some experience with that by now. The last 15 years or so have been very instructive in more than one way.


If there is one country that can not complain about lack of support from the EU, it is Poland. Both before and after invasion of February 2022.

Let us be clear here. The Polish government was very quick and very loud to demand support for Ukraine and a boycott of Russian energy, no matter the economic harm this might bring. Now Poland has not only stopped the delivery of new weapons to Ukraine, the moment it felt some economic fallout it has also became complicit in Russia's attempts to strangle the Ukrainian economy. If one had to sum up the Polish position during the invasion, then it would be that they talked very loud when words were cheap, but bailed when the check arrived. The new government can still turn things around and salvage the situation, but it won't be easy.