Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 9

@Bratwurst Boy
And Europe has had 30 years to arm itself and prepare for any such invasion. It didnt. Countries did not meet their NATO required spending twice as often as they did. So, if Russia comes knocking in 5 years, is that enough time for Europe to wake TF up? Probably not, because its clear the EU was counting on the US to keep funding this war. It was clear that the EU was going to let Ukraine fight to the last and hope that they could beat Russia back. Well folks, thats not happening and it wont happen.

I dont care if the US gives Ukraine 100 billion more. They dont have enough men to win. Period. Send 1000 tanks, and there arent enough people to use them and repare them while maintaining the front line. Send 50 F-16's and not enough crews to fly and maintain them. Send all the artilery possible and still not enough men to break through the front lines. But according to PF Ukraine should just keep sending what men they have left to die, and hope a miracle happens so that Russia cant attack Poland or the Baltics in the future? News flash.....Even if Russia was defeated and beaten back, if they want to invade Poland or anywhere else in six or eight years, they fvcking will regardless of what happens in Ukraine. Like pushing Russia out of Ukraine will keep them from invading again? Thats some simple thinking there.

Maybe Vlad is going to bake everyone Christmas cookies too. Z fvcked up. Ukraine didnt follow orders on the counter offensive. Ukraine did not mobilize, and now his people and US congress no longer believe in him or have trust in him.

Yeah, Ukraine is no tiny Chechnya awaaay from Europe... Ukraine could be RuSSia's "second Afghanistan". But better not find out if that would be the case - we have to do everything possible to not let RuSSia overrun Ukraine.


Everybody needs money... So do RuSSian border guards lol :))


You show time after time that you don't know anything about Poland and you are again making a fool of yourself :) In Spain and the UK there were historical reasons for "insurgency brewing". There are no such reasons in Poland.

Make no mistake - if it came to that, Poland would support Ukrainian guerrilla warfare by all means possible and I'm sure the West would do too.

Really? Are there none at all?

How to you prepare for such an invasion!

I dunno about the rest of Europe but Germany was looking forward to a peaceful and mutual profitable future with Russia....


Yeah....we got that.....


Would you advise to lay down and show the belly to the invader?

Would you advise the same to Poland....or the US? Or is it something especially ukrainian?

An Udmurtian backed insurgency ? In Poland ?

Those Kashubs will be raising hell in Wejherowo with Korean War rifles from their Soviet brothers

I suppose a Hungarian armed group is just about feasible in parts of Romania. The problem is that Romania is now almost as rich as Orbans Hungary and they are going in opposite directions when it comes to prosperity. I can't imagine anyone there wanting to rock the boat.

richer.... Hungary is now almost as poor (or as poor as) Bulgaria.... Dictators don't do economy....

Most ethnic Hungarians are happy to be in Romania now and while they appreciate the monetary support Orban sends them they have no intention of coming under his rule.

Not that I'm aware of :) When I was discussing with Putinist RuSSians some years ago they were trying to scare us Poles with Silesia joining Germany or something like that, but we just laughed at them :))


lol

Exploiting latent ethnic divisions would of course be harder in Poland than in Romania.

However, when "specialists" with the FSB/SVR/GRU in Russia look at these problems, I believe they adopt a holistic approach.

1) Ethnic Tensions - potentially out

2) Regional Tensions - the West of Poland is much wealthier and more productive than the East.

3) Political Polarization - evidence the unhinged discussions between supporters of PiS and KO here.

4) Economic Inequality - there is the urban and rural divide, lack of employment opportunity in certain regions, the effects of inflation are being experienced differently by different strata of society, and so on...

5) National Identity and Patriotism - you could pit the Korvinuses and Ironsides against the Pawians and Paulinas on the topic of Polish sovereignty and EU encroachment.

6) Religious Divisions - while Poland is predominantly Catholic, there are big divisions within, on subjects ranging from abortion to gay marriage.

In short, for a willing provocateur, there is enough material to work with.

Oh this is just epic - the Smolensk Liberation Front taking up arms against the LBGT establishment.

Maybe a role for Macierewicz to lead a Dad's Army down from Bialystok to Wroclaw because they are more productive

Or Gornik v Ruch but with kalashnikovs that jam in hot weather

Just like in any country - including yours :) But thanks for pointing out what we should be looking out for :)))

Russians are so upset with Putin that they want him dead from exhaustion. That's why they will vote for him again...

According to the pollster, Putin, who is running as an independent, is likely to win 82% of the vote. His opponents, Communist Party candidate Nikolay Kharitonov and Vladislav Davankov of the New People party could receive 6% each, with Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democrats receiving 5%.

Those evil Russians...

Now the definition of "green": The color on Biden's face when he reads my post.

That is a bold statement. So how much more losses must Ukraine suffer (in soldiers, civilian deaths, gdp drop etc.) to say that the Plan A hasn't necessarily worked all that well?


An interesting theory. The question is: will Ukrainians listen to such "heroic" government in exile if it comes to that.


Nope. The guy even refused to admit that it was a Ukrainian rocket that fell in Przewodów, killing two Poles. Even when the remains of the rocket were examined, the circumstances, the flight path etc. - even then he kept claiming that it was a Russian missile. A small example of Zelensky's stubornness and unwilingness to admit mistakes. Perhaps the reason is that in Ukraine, as in any eastern Turanic satrapy, admitting error can be interpreted as a sign of weakness - a dangerous thing for any satrap.

As for your theory of Russian intelligence being able to shake the internal stability of Poland, they made me smile (in a benevolent way). :) When it comes to shaking internal stability of Poland, Poles are the undisputed World Champions themselves - Russian or German provocateurs are puny amateurs in comparison. In times of peace we can be complete and utter arseholes, form three political parties where there's two of us, conduct ideological wars, accuse each other of all possible iniquities etc. - as can be very well observed on PF. However, in a moment of external threat, all those divisions fade into the background instantly. There may be fierce divisions between supporters of different parties - Konfa (Iron), PiS (Amiga), KO (Pawian), PSL (my humble self) - but they wouldn't mean sh*t when tanks rolled into Poland either from the West or from the East. We would all be united then. So, if you want to subdue Poland, don't waste money on throngs of agent provocateurs - bring an army with you (and a strong one!).

Excellent. Good that they're on the right side, fighting against the violent r*SSian stooge Kadyrov.


Naive.


It isn't worked well for r*SSia, has it....

Their three day 'special operation'.

Of course it hasn't.

However, Russia switched from Plan A to Plan B, and when that didn't work out they are trying Plan C. They change, adapt, adjust and plot. Ukrainians, on the other hand, seem to be stuck in their "100% victory or death" scenario.

Agree completely, A+++ . Bobko and co will just be pissing in the wind.


I'm predicting Zenlensky will be deposed, peacefully or violently, by 2026, if there are no negotations.

Russia is slowly rebuilding its liberated, war-torn cities...

They (not my friend Bobi, of course, but Russia in general) will keep trying though. And it is their role and right to do so - all the tricks are allowed in love and war. :)

As for constructive solutions to the conflict (as Plans A, B, and possibly even C seem to be dead ends). How about...

1. Królewiec to Poland.
2. Russia out of Belarus.
3. Poland declares full neutrality in the conflict and stops all aid and transports to Ukraine.
4. Moldova and Transnistria are allowed to reunite with Romania (transnistrian Russian population is relocated back to Russia).
5. Romania declares full neutrality in the conflict and stops all aid and transports to Ukraine.

Points 1-5 practically force Ukrainians to the negotiating table. The negotiated peace involves:

6. Belarus and Ukraine (somewhat decreased in size) become a neutral buffer zone between Russia and NATO.
7. Belarus and Ukraine receive safety guarantees (both from West and East) and considerable economic aid.
8. We all live happily ever after.

How about that for a Plan D?


Two more years of this nonsense? Whatever for? I hope it happens much sooner.

What is weird is the way Udmurtians think any kind of social divisions are a weakness to be exploited

In fact they will always exist in healthy democracy and democracy will always be richer and nicer than dictatorship

Yes. None of the divisions mentioned by Bobko the friendly Soviet actually play much of a role in public life in Poland and are greatly exaggerated in the media.

Disagreements about issues in a society are a sign of health. The pathological need for enforced conformity is a sign of profound societal malaise.

Normal human relations seem weirdly dystopian to russians while violence and deception seem normal and good to them.

Pathology.

Which all decent people want to see fail, badly.

And it will.


Because that is their situation. Victory or death.

This won't stop this year and probably won't stop next. There are many more chapters in this history writ before us, and Ukraine will prevail in the end.

Their situation is probably more like that of Finland in 1940: they can keep their independence and statehood, ensuring their country's survival, for the price of certain territorial concessions. Finns put up a brave defence, just like Ukrainians did, but were smart enough in the end not to drag out the war indefinitely.

Since I think Ukrainian government in exile isn't a likely scenario I'm wondering about another one - will Ukrainians listen to an Ukrainian government if it decides to negotiate? That's the big question, imho. I guess the Ukrainian government would have to gradually change the rhetoric in order to mentally prepare people for that, but would that be enough? I don't know what's the mood concerning this in the Ukrainian society at the moment.


I was thinking the same lol


Again - I was thinking the same. There's no shame in making some territorial concessions after putting up such a brave fight against a much bigger, powerful country. Don't get me wrong - I know those are not just lands - I know that people live there. But life isn't a fairytale... Poland lost lands, Finland lost lands, but we survived both as nations and as countries. As much as it pains me to say it - sometimes you have to cut off one of your limbs in order to survive. Life is more important. Unless some miracle happens, but I don't know what could realistically happen that would change the situation drastically enough...

Unfortunately, this is only possible in fairy tales.

Meanwhile the war that Udmurtia claims to be winning so easily is still going on

This morning Ukrainian drones flew once again thousands of kilometers into Udmurtia hitting targets and exposing their paper-thin pathetic defenses, manned by dipsomaniacs.

I'm sure there will be a few people in Moscow wondering what the Ukrainians could hit with proper missiles

Corrected it for you.

If they don't keep on fighting, r*SSia will simply take and take. No credible public figure would say otherwise.

Some people here making some good suggestions. Yet the PF Ukraine booster club continues to say fight to the end. Absolutely stupid thinking that men should die for nothing and thet women and children should continue to be at risk because Ukraine will not negotiate.

Torq and Amiga make great points, and other make great suggestions because, there is a time for realism and not dreaming and that time is now. Russia can go on for the next five years without blinking. Ukraine cant survive much longer. These are just facts any rational thinking human being can understand. If the EU and Ukraine dont believe Russia will keep to a brokered peace then it is on them to arm themselves to a point where Russia will not try anything again. That should have been happening for the last thirty years. But no one wants to admit the EU and NATO members have fvcked up not paying their share into NATO and not building up.

..says a stupid gay man who ignores the fact that the Russian troops are in Russia and that Donbass and Luhansk are part of the Russian Federation.

How did they do that? Simple. There was a referendum and the overwhelming majority voted to separate from Ukraine just as Kosovo and French Canadians voted to separate from Yugoslavia and Canada, respectively.

Once the separation was done, D and L asked the RF if they could join. The RF said yes. Case closed.

If you, Russia-hating morons, have any problem with that process, you can look up the meaning of self-rule and self-determination. When done reading take any object and shove it...

But "the end" is nowhere close for Udmurtia.

In the last month Udmurtia have advanced just 20km of mostly undefended territory. They are not going to sweep accross in a Blitzkrieg unless they use their air force, which they seek unwilling to risk.

Given the Udmurtian talent for organization I am skeptical that their logistics could support a quick advance anyway.

Every day that the war is prolonged is another day of disaster for Udmurtia's economy and demographics - which eventually will lead to Putler being toppled, certainly before the end of this year.

Good to watch the burning oil refineries today - best thing on TV.

What would you do as an Ukrainian, living in the war territory....in land claimed by the invading army....serious question!


I guess we are already on that point.....

Maybe there is something in points 3,4 and 5 but is not that much. There is much more material in the unhinged political ineptitude of Tusk and Sikorski.

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Stop being a repetitive machine. What happened to you? Hoping to make some bucks in Ukirnian and they conned you?
What Europe are you talking about? That from 90 years ago? What exactly do you mean? Which countries? There is no Europe like in the States there is no one-to-one comparison between the USA and The EU. What Europe? Russia had been arming is all right. so what's your point? Western Germany was well-armed 20 years ago.

If you spew slogans you can't expect an answer, can you?
Why countries in Europe were disarmed? because the Soviet Union fell and they did feel threatened.
The US kept its military capability up and to speed because it wanted to, dragging NATO countries with them into its numerous warmongering wars that nobody in Europe needed or wanted

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1989 Panama ( Honduras 2009, Peru 1990, Bolivia 2019, Venezuela 2002, 2019)
1991 Bush attack Iraq (Haiti)
1992 American boots in Somalia
1994 American troops in Haiti, (here some Polish commandos with them)
1995 Bosnia Americans bombing people there.
1998 Afghanistan and Sudan - American attack selected targets there.
1999 Kosovo - US Air Force attacked Serbai killing a lot of civilians including children and that is why Crow went mad.
2001 Invasion f Afagnistan
2003 Bush son in Iraq.
2011 Lybia is destroyed by the US attack, opening the way for migrants from Africa to get into Europe.
2014 Wanted to do the same in Syria but failed.
Can be bothered to list more, Bobko can do it for me if he wants.
So, what exactly are you saying? Because it sounds nothing short of rubbish!
I don't know if you are an idiot or you take us for idiots.