Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 11

Hard to imagine Zelensky putting a "duty or death" order out in today's times....but maybe he should be more creative and "fair"!

I'm 35, but regardless - of course I have considered it. Family and girlfriend were not enthusiastic... to say the least. Something about "great investments" made not with the intent for me to provide compost for the already fertile Ukrainian soil.

I aid in other ways, which I think are not insignificant. That's as far as I can explain here.

The only reason I would go, is not to kill Ukrainians, but as an officer to prevent my guys from getting killed needlessly. The rank and file need an advocate, that can communicate their concerns to the top. Also, an example of someone that doesn't steal and doesn't treat them as meat.

Me being in uniform would... in a small way... lead to a more efficient and deadly Russian army. So you should be happy.

We all do, in different ways and manners.

Anyhow, what's your prediction, Bobi? When will the mighty Russia finally overcome Ukraine and achieve victory? Autumn this year? Spring 2025? Please, give me a date that I can save for future reference.

I think it will depend on the political dynamics in Ukraine and the United States.

My maximalist prediction, is that there will be serious negotiations in February-March next year, when a fresh administration comes into the White House. Whether it is Biden 2.0 or Trump 2.0.

My pessimist prediction is that it will likely happen by some point before the spring of 2026.

The land is shifting under Zelensky's feet. He is now in uncharted territory, as a president lacking a legal mandate. People are coming to increasingly hate his tv "marathon", his recruiters, the corruption of his team, and the constant misrepresentation of what's happening on the front.

The Ukrainian government is weak, and this is understood not only in the Kremlin.

Their economic and demographic situation becomes worse by the day. The enthusiasm of their allies is waning in symmetrical proportion. This is the thing to watch, much more than the movements of the frontline. In the end, Germany did not surrender in WW1 for lack of men, but because their leaders could read the writing on the wall.

He has a legal mandate.


We can figure it out...

Apologies to you, but I sincerely doubt you can "figure it out".

Stop flattering yourself thinking some Russian spy would spend time and effort on shaping your opinions.

@Bobko

Interesting prediction, thank you.

All I can say is that not every ally is losing enthusiasm, some would seem to be even toughening (the Baltics), finally growing some balls (France) or practically accepting the inevitable in case of Ukraine's fall (Poland). Also, the economic and demographic situation of Russia is not getting any better either (I know, I know--before a fat man has grown thin... and all that).


Ah, there's silly propaganda on both sides. We know better than to fall for it.

In Ukraine it's not effective or sexy - just irritating. Even for me, watching 20 minutes of it makes me switch off the channel in disgust. Understand - all their foibles are actually entertaining for me, and yet I still cannot watch it.

This ham-fisted approach at propaganda is having the reverse effect of what is desired.

--////---

I know Ukraine better than Russia, please don't try to teach me about what's happening there. It's not good, and it smells very bad.

What's more - it happened in the past - so we have a template to follow.

Ukraine is not Poland.

Poland may get freedom sometimes, and return to its "normal" state. Ukraine has only a history of total failure of revolts.

Ukraine is betrayed every time by the same intrinsic weaknesses, that we Russians know perfectly how to exploit.

In the past, they have come even closer than now to being "free" - but in the end they always f*cked it up.

We don't sit on our hands, and we learn from their actions. So our efforts become more nuanced and calibrated also with time.

This current generation of Ukrainian leaders is not up to the task of taking on Russia. They had an impressive run through the first two years - which stunned even us - but now their trajectory is returning to the historical norm.

We know how to bring down Ukrainians easily so they can comfortably settle into a new reality.

@Bratwurst Boy
You really think Putin would try to attack the US? Its all out nuclear war or nothing when it comes to the US and Russia.

@Tacitus
Your thinking the US cant find other people to sell weapons to is like saying a tiger cant find something to eat in a jungle. The MIC is nothing but a group of whor3s who will sell anything to anyone with money.

best way to do that is get them out of Ukraine and back to their own country....

russia can accomplish nothing remotely positive in Ukraine.... in 1, 10 or 100 years.... all it can do is destroy because russia has no positive vision for the world.... just dictatorship and tyranny and theft and violence

emotionally needy weak-willed people with daddy issues might fall for that but no psychologically healthy person can

as some have said, russia is basically a death cult at this stage, where killing and dying are goals in and of themselves.....

Are you saying that Russian tv propaganda is effective or sexy? All them Solovyovs and other Simonyans? Sorry, I must have missed all their effectiveness and sexiness. ;)


Am I? You mean #747? I only mentioned one case known to me personally, and the practises of one AFU unit regarding soldiers' leaves.

Your "Russia is no threat to the US" was so sure!

I remember a similiar surety in Germany concerning Russia...we had been so absolutely sure! Now look at us...

Just saying....the times have changed and I guess as long Putin is in power they will stay that bad....and unsure!

Who gives a fuk if there is aid or no from Poland to Ukraine, Poland helped the most , but the world praises USA , UK or other usual suspects and Poland is forgotten in all of it.

God forbid.

I feel sorry for people that have to digest Russian propaganda.

It's equally nauseating on both sides, but only one side has a truly existential reliance on it for things to work.

Russia still has a magical thing called... "filthy, dirty, money". We have money, alhamdulillah. It makes recruitment work, and society ignore things.

@Bratwurst Boy
What is dickehead German doing here?

I would say that both Poland and Ukraine give significant amount of f*ck to the abovementioned issue.


It is not for the vain praises of the world but for the purpose of doing the right thing that we help Ukraine. We are Poland - being chivalrous and aiding the weak in their struggle against aggression, without expecting anything in return, is just what we do.


Ej, kurwa, uważaj jak mówisz do mojego kolegi, misiu kolorowy. :-/

Something as banal as preaching to the converted or boring the decent on ann obscure low traffic internet forum infested with toxic boomers? Of course it does happen here and not only by orcs.

Then again, the orcs spend huge resources on BTL fields on newspapers with a low readership.


I'd say that's an overly positive description of that society.

Notice how eager they all are to say repeatedly how things are all going just tickety boo, a sure a sign as any that the opposite is true.

They don't have a resource like Bobko. I can alone replace a troll farm, and yet I spend my precious time here with you instead.

Is it so hard to believe, that I simply enjoy your company?

Indeed you still do. However, if Allah (subhanahu wa ta'ala), doesn't grant you victory rather sooner than later, you might start running out of it, inshallah.

Indeed. The only Glavset etc ones who produce content at so much length on open online things tend to be on Quora and occasionally Reddit and are more transparent.


No.

There are however other things that sometimes go on here, and r*SSia probably isn't the only country to have people watching and posting here to from time to time; some things are obvious if you know what to spot ;-)

Aren't you a bit too perceptive, Jon? ;)

Yes, it has served me well.

And I've been suspected of spookery in real life myself, even recently, despite that being something I'd not fancy getting involved with.Though I've some fun stories about Africa, one of them involving a r*SSian spy.

You boys have watched too much James Bond.

The last James Bond film I saw had Roger Moore in it.

So, what's your prediction for the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? When will it end? What outcome? Asking for future reference; I might even send a small prize to the author of the most accurate prediction. :)

A diplomatic solution brokered after a panic. The mediator will be Western European , Aussie, Canadian or American, very experienced and will be light haired or grey haired and have a substantial legal background and very moderate personal politics. r*SSia will be disappointed despite trying to provoke fear. China will seize an opportunity.

That's what the Tarot cards said earlier and they're usually right.

Edit
I forgot to say that Serbia will have a coup d'etat led by a man called Wroński or Wrona, and Leeds United will be promoted next season.

Thanks. Saved for future reference. :)


That's what everyone said the last time but it's the Saints who made it (Saint Mary was on their side ;)).

I watched today at Youtube, TV Aktuelnosti- that follow development on front daily. One Serbian military experts Captain Dragan, said that ``if one side use the nuke, even tactical one (because he said, nuke is a nuke), he believes all who have nuke on this planet, will launch nukes. Many wait their chance. Every produced nuke has adress on its warhead. Pakistan, India, North Korea, France, Britain, all who have a nuke.`` At the comment of host of the program that it means certain nuclear holocaust and probable end of civilization, Captain Dragan said ``not necessarily. Its greatly exaggerated. So, its 50:50 for civilization to continue.``

I had a bad feeling watching today`s program at TV Aktuelnosti, to tell you frankly. I remained with a question, are we all on front already?

Of course we are. However, everything is - as usual - in the hands of the Almighty, laudate Dominum (or subhanallah, as Bobko would say).

One don`t need to go that far to imagine end of civilization and use of all available nukes. Only a few nukes in Europe would mean blossoming of all kind of diseases and radiation, and mortality rate of civilian population would be enormous. Not to think of victims of the crash of medical care system, as Korona already proved that happening in case of global pandemic and great medical crisis.

I sometimes think that Korona was invented to prepare us for the incoming war, that elites were aware of. When became aware of this possibility, I concluded we are all truly in deep sh*t. Just, some countries would be totally erased and some would cope as the islands of hope (for global business), because, you know, elites would push things only that far, so that they don`t destroy themselves. I think, that is their plan, at least. But, plan can go wrong even for them.