Coronavirus in Poland

Where there is life there is hope.
Moderna, the Massachusetts biotechnology company behind a leading effort to create a coronavirus vaccine, announced promising early results from its first human safety tests today.

The company reported that in eight patients who had been followed for six weeks, the vaccine at low and medium doses triggered blood levels of virus fighting antibodies that were similar or greater than those found in patients who recovered.

That would suggest, but doesn't prove, that it triggers some level of immunity.
That shot the stock market up 800 points !

And I just found this interesting page from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation...

they find four factors are significant in predicting coronavirus mortality rates

temperature
mobility
density
testing capacity

their projections from Poland are here (you can change the country)

covid19.healthdata.org/poland

The page hasn't been updated in a week and it's interesting to see the current rates are at the bottom of their estimates...

their twitter feed:

twitter.com/IHME_UW

70,000 so far in round one in America.
Appropriate analogy: "The curve is flattening so we can start lifting restrictions now" = "The parachute has slowed our rate of descent, so we can take it off now".

Yet, the Libs want to move the goal posts once again. " Let find the cure" before the lockdowns can be lifted or until the election is over!

I wish, I was in Poland right now.

I hope they give us two weeks notice before sending us back out into the real world.
I think we'll all need the time to become ourselves again.
And by "ourselves" I mean lose 10 pounds, cut our hair and get used to not drinking at 9:00 a.m.

Mercron plan 500 Billion Marshall plan for after-Corona Europe....

france24.com/en/20200518-live-macron-and-merkel-present-joint-covid-19-recovery-plan-for-eu

PS: These 500 Billion + the other already decided 500 Billion Euro help = 1 Trillion???

Do they think the money grows on trees???

Preferably German trees ;)

France and Italy should be allowed to form a Mediterranean Union, in which they would be able to print/borrow money at will (and we would simply grab some popcorn and observe how that would work for them). :)

Vast majority? I would say that as pretty much the entire population can contract it if it's not kept under control means that you can have a lot of very sick people on your hands. Clusters have occurred where social distancing is not observed and that's why you have so many in nursing homes, but take the Polish mines as another example. I wonder how those guys are doing? Anybody know the stats for those clusters?

Also, when you say 'non-dangerous', if you mean non-fatal, ok, but we don't know the long term consequences and many healthy people who contract it will end up with their health being undermined for many months, years, or permanently. Ireland is a very small country so in almost every community, somebody personally knows someone or knows of somebody connected to an acquaintance, who has had the virus or died of the virus and there are many younger people who have 'recovered' but are so weak that they are still struggling to walk, weeks later. Incidentally in my sister's town, a young Polish guy who worked in Lidl caught it very early on in the epidemic and died. RIP, poor lad, and what must it be like for his family in Poland. Heartbreaking. We should never forget that we are talking about our fellow human beings, not merely stats.

My source for the R number has been the one you linked to a while back Maf. It hasn't been updated since 12 May but if you look at the trend in Poland, it has only barely dropped below 1.0 to .96 on 27 April and has been steadily climbing back up since. So the transmission rate is not dropping enough. With a R0 number of 1.0 then every infected person goes on to infect one other. The last update for Poland showed an R0 number of 1.17.

In other news, Iceland says that from 15 June, everybody arriving at their airports will be offered a choice of quarantine for 14 days or taking a Covid-19 test, which seems a really good idea - or you can carry a document showing that you have been tested and are free of the virus. Unfortunately what we are likely to see are scumbags with fake documents but the Covid-19 test at the airport is a very sensible approach. It's certainly much better than a mere temperature check. I imagine we will see the Covid-19 airport test becoming much more widespread.

Weeeeell......

...Macron and Merkel stressed that the 27 member states will have to agree to the proposal and that much remains to be worked out, including how the Commission's debt would be reimbursed.....

euronews.com/2020/05/18/macron-and-merkel-back-eu-bond-to-raise-500-billion-for-covid-19-recovery-plan

Now would be a good time for Poland to say something....

Ja, das kann ich mir vorstellen: Poland would say something, then French would say that we "lost our opportunity to be quiet", then we would mention eating with knife and fork etc. Very constructive :)

Germany has the power and means to bang their fist on the table, and that's exactly what you should do.

But....but...but....Merkel: "Wir schaffen das!"

...that doesn't look good for our german money trees....

Here in Warsaw yesterday the restaurants were nearly empty,in the malls some buffet like restaurants were still closed as I guess they depend on volume.Vapiano the German chain has announced bankruptcy.Most of the restaurants have there seating capacity cut to half and have fired there staff,Hotels like Mariott,sheraton etc still not opening till June 1 have also fired there staff.Situation dont look good in coming days here as Centre is still pretty empty.

In NJ they are still functioning unlike Poland where everything came to a standstill.

Krakow nearly everything is open. Not super busy, but no tourists so its about what I would expect on a Monday in spring without tourists. Restaurants had plenty of business outside on Rynek, and inside there were a few people. The weekend will tell the tale I think.

No, it doesn't. But it will be interesting to see how much blood sucking can Germany take, before they say "enough!".

No I mean a very large majority of cases have been asympomatic or very mild symptoms... (a cold that lasts a bit longer than usual). Strained hospitals have only occurred in a few atypical settings.

In the case of northern Italy this suggests that the hospital problems were less a result of the virus itself and more the result of a panic spiral as (which meant more vulnerable people were ending up in the hospital with fewer and fewer staff to take care of them (and this was before effective treatment protocols were really worked out).

Yes, it's anecdotal but believable (and does no contradict other information I've gleaned from the Italian situation).

medical staff who contracted the virus had a mortality rate about the same as the flu...

swprs.org/covid-19-a-report-from-italy/


There has been no excess mortality in Ireland due to coronavirus (see all the way down at the very bottom) not the freshest dates but still valid AFAIK.

euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#map-of-z-scores


Two years ago the spouse of a close colleague died of regular old flu complications, their condition went from manageable to urgent within an hour or so and by the time the ambulance got them to the hospital it was too late for them to be saved.... so yes, I know these things happen and they're terrible

Nonetheless, I've yet to see real scientific evidence that this is such a grave threat. I think that China's handling of it (marked by paranoia and cover ups) freaked everyone out but all the raw data shows it's just not that dangerous and once you take away the political and media hysteria the mortality rate has been about the same as a bad flu season. Serious, yes. And I'm not criticizing the original lock down decisions (which seemed prudent at the time and maybe helped keep things manageable in some places).

But any time you enact a lockdown you need an exit strategy that doesn't involve a 'cure' or complete elimination of mortality (in the US one idiot governor wants to continue the lockdown until no one dies.... of anything). Too many governments now are stuck in a policy that's devastating for the economy but they don't know how to get out of it... not a good situation.

I think in a way they did better with scaring the public into lockdown than they wanted to and in some places it backfired and people are too scared to ease the lockdown (GB comes to mind). So the government has to pretend they still take precaution (face masks come to mind)

Exactly, just as airports now have to enact "security theater" (most of which is just a show to make people feel safe and has little to do with real security) we now have "disinfectant theater" in public places.

Again I'm not criticizing and I'm relatively happy to wear the dumb mask (even though it gives me goblin ears) for the sake of getting the machinery of public life into gear again. And I maintain as much social distance as possible (which is often... not so much and decreasing by the day).

Northern Michigan where I live is opening up this Friday.
We have had no new cases in three weeks now.
This week end is a long holiday week end to start off summer when a huge influx of tourism starts here every year.
People come to open their cottages and camp outside at all the State Parks.
They will surely bring the virus with them and contaminate us up here again but that almighty dollar seems top priority.
When this quarantine is over, let's not tell some people.

Nice dude ur lucky... cook co is fuuuuucked still. Im a bit surprised well reopen may 30. We havent even really peaked yet and cook co has more cases and dead than any other county in usa

Atleats wisconsin is open now so we can go out to eat, drink, shop, etc. I cant wait its been sooo long

Many others aren't. I've just come back from the supermarket, and there were a lot of older people crowding together (i.e. exactly as it was before).

Tell me about it... the worst are bike riders, they just whiz right by (and over half aren't even pretending to wear masks)....


Well it's very hard to convince older people of much of anything or to get them to change their ways... one friend was having fits back in March trying to get his mother (a few hundred kilometers away) to take it seriously.

I have found that a very loud deep cough and a big fake sneeze will get the idiots that refuse to wear a mask or social distance in a store to just scatter.

Disrespectful bike riders crash into my walking cane with a, "oh, I'm sorry", can I help you up ? Sorry about the broken spokes.

Another day, another round of numbers....

Hospitalization (running total): 2490 people are now hospitalized, down 54 from yesterday's 2544

Fatalities (day totals): 12 people have died, one more than yesterday's 11....

The numbers seem to be plateauing for the last few days at around 2500 in the hospital and between 10 and 15 fatalities each day...

source:
medonet.pl/koronawirus/to-musisz-wiedziec,zasieg-koronawirusa-covid-19--mapa-,artykul,54726942.html?utm_source=onetrasp&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=perfo_autopromo_hplive_zasieg_koronawirusa_mapa_aktualizacja

And..... the funeral industry is having hard times because.... fewer people are dying than before the pandemic.....

onet.pl/sport/przeglad-sportowy/zuzel-branza-pogrzebowa-na-lopatkach-umiera-znacznie-mniej-ludzi/0cbm3xl,0bc36c23

Dinner out last night in Kazimierz and it was pretty busy. All of the open air or outdoor seating was nearly full everywhere. Still a lot of places closed temporarily or some permanently. Masks were present in most cases before people sat down, then it was masks off. Everyone seemed comfortable, no nervous feel to anything. Very diverse age groups represented, not just young hipsters. With news that restrictions will continued to be eased, it seems like a small sense of normalcy is returning and people are getting used to how things are now for the next few weeks. The test will be when it gets real hot out and humid. No way people will wear masks then.

And the air conditioning is turned on in big box stores blowing germs and viruses in every direction.
We're all going to die for sure.

If you want to panic take a look at this virus that is spreading world wide with no cure in sight.
Candida -auris
msn.com/en-us/video/science/meet-candida-auris-the-superbug-thats-taking-over-the-world/vi-BB13ZcGa

Do you know what filters in a HVAC unit are for?

Its the end of the world, oh No!!!!

Today's numbers... down and up....

Another day, another round of numbers....

Hospitalization (running total): 2414 people are now hospitalized, down 76 from yesterday's 2490

Fatalities (day totals): 14 people have died, two more than yesterday's 12....

The plateau of around 2400-2500 in the hospital and between 10 and 15 fatalities each day is continuing.

The current rate of positive tests remains at around 0.03 (19,569 positive tests out of 674,861 tests) with a fatality rate of about 0.04 (which suggests there's a lot more asymptomatic positives out there since the general fatality rate is about .02 of positive cases)

medonet.pl/koronawirus/to-musisz-wiedziec,zasieg-koronawirusa-covid-19--mapa-,artykul,54726942.html?utm_source=onetrasp&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=perfo_autopromo_hplive_zasieg_koronawirusa_mapa_aktualizacja

This is quite chilling. It implies that the infection in Poland hasn't really had its first wave.

theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus

@jon357

Everyone knows a second wave is possible. Implication on Poland from an academic that hasnt been here? No thanks. I prefer to get real information from feet on the ground. All this hype over the global killer, and here we are, the vast majority not effected.

She's been here and is an expert in the field. Worth listening to.