Coronavirus in Poland

Huh?

....We've been comparing the UK and Germany to try to explain the comparatively low fatality rates in Germany. The answers are sometimes counterintuitive. For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological "dark matter" ..

??? Heh:)

theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Interesting...or brits could be averagely fatter?

Hmmm....they are not that different...

United Kingdom:
Obesity Rate 27.80%
BMI 27.3

Germany:
Obesity Rate 22.30%
BMI 26.3

And Poland has a similiar obesity like Germany:
Obesity Rate: 23.10%
BMI: 26.4

worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-obese-countries/

But the death count is much more different than the obesity rates and the BMI numbers are nearly the same...

Yes it's all v weird.

What about pollution in Germany bb? Are death rates higher in industrial areas like the ruhr?
That is my pet theory. ..

Also in Poland...are death rates higher in Silesia o wonder...

Hmmm....that could be something maybe...Bayern, Baden-Württemberg und Nordrhein-Westfalen have all the most Corona cases (including highest death counts).
Whereas the whole Eastern Germany has come off lightly, especially Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. And that has barely any industry at all...mostly lots of space and beautiful nature!

zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/coronavirus-echtzeit-karte-deutschland-landkreise-infektionen-ausbreitung

But I guess there is a similiar picture in the UK too...urban density + pollution = more Corona

Yes I do think so. ...

So Poland....showing something similar I bet

I'm wondering about the role of central heat/air... how are nursing homes in Germany heated? how are they cooled (or are they)?

There's very little air-condiitoning and central heating (it's mostly steam heat through radiators).

Central heat for sure...we have been usually a colder country....air conditioning is a fairly new thing though....still more a private thing. I doubt nursery homes have them commonly installed if the people didn't bought such small room coolers for themselves and brought them with them...

(But that will change surely in time with the more regular occurrence of extreme heat summers, especially for the most vulnerable like sick people in hospitals or seniors in nursing homes.)

I think we're all going slightly nuts trying to figure out the magic bullet of Corona.

It does seem that areas that are opening up are faring well. Maybe best way to deal with corona is live life, but do it hygienically.

But I mean an air central heating system or steam heat with radiators or something else?

I'm fairly sure there's a correlation between circulating air systems and high fatality rates...

It's true that these days we haven't been living our lives as hygienically as say our grandparents born in pre antibiotic days did. They lived with TB as well. No wonder our grannies were so crazy fir handwashing and 'hankies'

But I think we can now bury the so called "swedish way"....the most actual numbers of a big study make that clear....here one of the most important:

Covid-19 deaths pro 100.000 citizens (27.05. 2020):

Sweden: 41,5
In comparison:
Germany: 10,2
Denmark: 9,8
Finland: 5,7
Norway: 4,4

spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-krise-schwedens-sonderweg-eine-zwischenbilanz-in-zahlen-a-c7b3cea2-63be-4072-8df9-afdb765afb54

And the death count in Sweden is still rising, even as neighbouring scandinavian countries (and most other countries) could flatten the curve at the end of May. Denmark, Finland and Norway are now hesitating to re-open their borders for Swedes...the country becomes a hot spot!

So, I for one wouldn't look to Sweden anymore about how to make it better....they don't and they pay a high price!

Spike was all in favour of Sweden's approach, but I said at the time that they weren't faring too well compared with their Scandinavian neighbours, and that definitely seems to be the case now.

Russia appears to have a low number of fatalities given that well over 400,000 people have been infected, or maybe the numbers have been fudged............it is hard to know which sources to look at for accurate information.

@Chemikiem
Numbers fudged? Putin? Say it isn't so. And the 4 reporters that mysteriously fell from their balconies all simply got dizzy too.

Haha yes, but I've been looking at Worldometers.info which I thought would be accurate, but I suppose they can only work with the information they are actually given......

Well I do know we haven't heard from Rich since he was sent to be Deputy Assistant Manager for Elevator Safety at the Voroshilov Nickel Mine.

Sweden is weird - much worse than its neighbors but much the same result as Ireland, Holland, Belgium and a few others that were all locked down.

Very possible, given that it's Russia. Their very spread out population will surely have an effect too.

@cms neuf
Finland lock down was very strick according to a colleague there. Caught outside when you didnt have a reason and you were getting a stiff fine. Sweden, particularly Stockholm has a lot of close quarters. Lots of people in tight spaces and social distancing in many places is near impossible.

I don't know if you can bury it or hold it up as the right approach

As cms neuf points out:


It just doesn't seem like the numbers show lock down or party down has been drastically better or worse.

There won't be a herd immunity against a virus that already mutated a couple of hundred times, as there wasn't anything like that observed in any other virus that appear during the flu season (well, there is an immunity, but just to a certain degree)

All EU should to do was closing borders, and force rest of the european countries to close borders, quarantine, and track all infected until they would eliminate it entirely. Funnily that would actually increase EU solidarity, when EU would block migration into small countries, and kick out migrants, it would even do proper steps to stabilize... Instead EU stuck to theirs ideology, and officials continued with theirs retarded policy.

Now of course, they went into stage "but they must recoup theirs profits", and normal citizens are thrown out of equation, because profit of businessmen is more important. Well, more and more I see stuff from EU during this virus, the more I think how socialistic eastern block was full of free people who just had some international travel restrictions and that was it. And yea, TV shows were whitelisted, thus no horrible telenovels.

Some travel restrictions and some bad food you had to queue for

Another day another batch of numbers

Fatalities (daily total) 10 (ages from 54-92, average 73.3)

Hospitalizations (running total) 2181 up 47 from yesterday's 2134

Cured 178 below 255 from yesterday

and so it goes....

It would be exceptionally interesting to know if these people were already suffering because of poor public health care and the virus is just the thing that tips them over the top, or not.

I think if that were the case there would be a _lot_ more....

I think the strain that arrived in Poland (continuing my different strains theory) just happened to be pretty mild and the more vulnerable individuals aren't cooped up in nursing homes as in some other countries (Polish seniors are pretty active as a rule and the nursing homes that do exist don't have constantly re-circulating air)

I was wondering if all this was happening because I didn't forward that message to ten people. :-/

It would be interesting to compare the overall number of daily fatalities today to the same period a year ago when there was no coronavirus.

There was some suggestion that the figures are lower due to scheduled operations being cancelled.

Yesterday down, today up....

Fatalities (daily total) 18 the highest rate since May 15... let's hope it's a post-weekend bump and not a new trend

Hospitalizations (running total) 2219 (38 more than yesterday)...

Cured 277 (up from yesterday and more cured than new cases, which is good)...

Maf, I really don't know what pattern or logic you're expecting to find in the daily figures. The virus is still being actively transmitted within the community and with the lifting of restrictions, people moving around the country throughout the summer on holidays and days out etc, it will continue to spread and cases will rise, though the government may try to fudge the figures.


Fatalities for the first ten days of May were actually higher than for the first ten days of April. Let's see what June brings forth.

Exactly! I'm less interested in total cases (since most cases are asymptomatic or very mild) and more interested in the fatality and hospitalization (and cure) rates - there's been a slow overall decline (ups and downs each day but overall the trend is down for the first two).

Massive economic and social and educational damage is being inflicted on the country (and continent and world) for the sake an illness... that's just not that dangerous for most people. I think the lock down was a good idea (though badly handled) but it needs to end sooner rather than later.

I'm also trying to figure out why the death rate in Poland is so low.... (I can totally believe that PiS would fudge the count but there's no real evidence of that happening yet). No one has offered any good theories for such wildly different fatality rates...

I like puzzles, this is a puzzle....