Coronavirus in Poland

@Atch
The virus is not actively being spread throughout the "community" or the country. It is really limited to a few Voivodeships, namely Silesia and Lower Silesia. Warsaw has its ups and downs, but still on the decline. Lodz and Greater Poland are outliers with random spikes. The virus will continue to spread everywhere. There is no complete stop coming to this virus in the near future.

Are we to close the world down until the virus goes away? This is the most nonsensical idea ever. The effect of the shutdown around the world has not been felt yet, and every day will make recovery longer and harder. The panic is simply over stated sensationalism from the press.

the-scientist.com/news-opinion/an-old-tb-vaccine-finds-new-life-in-coronavirus-trials-67504
thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31025-4/fulltext

And in Poland the vaccine against tuberculosis is mandatory for newborns from 1955 on.

The ideas is to delay the spread of the virus until we come up with a consensus on treatment, with the development of anti virals. the same we treat HIV. the idea of waiting till a vaccine is available is a false canard

That's already happened I thought..... that is treatment protocols for hospitalizaed patients have quickly evolved away from ventilators and toward oxygen and having the patient lie on their side or stomach...

A lockdown isn't really feasible for more than about two months (one month to a month and a half being more realistic)

A lockdown without minimum guaranteed subsidy for every small business from governments in the future is economic suicide. When a government can tell someone he can not work, and then does not compensate that individual equal to what he would have made if working then it is government over reach. People would not have had such a problem with the lockdown had the financial measures been better organized. Giving the money to big business was a disaster, not just in Poland but everywhere.

To reference HIV with COVID-19 is comparing basketballs to baseballs. HIV spread was slow and insidious within certain vulnerable groups. COVID was swift and very dangerous to a much more limited group of vulnerable people.

For once we are in agreement. And I am suprised that PiS did not do more to give job subsidies to businesses to pay their workers and expand unemployment benefits. It baffles the mind, but perhaps the predictable attacks of PO and Konfederats that they were pissing money up the wall as usual, tempered their response. The fact that the EU is still dithering over a stimulus bill does not help.


Thats not a treatment, thats just hoping for the best. I am talking about using combination therapy (multiple antivirals with different mechanisms of action) to inhibit viral replication at an early stage, before hospital admission or Intensive Care is needed. Exactly the treatment methodology that is used with HIV.

Two totally contradictory statements.

Of course it's still being transmitted, the R0 number is still hovering around just over 1.0. That means one infected person is still infecting at least one other. Ukrainian agricultural workers are now coming back in. Nearly 100,000 of them arrived in May. How many are infected but not showing symptoms? How many have been tested? Are they under 14 day quarantine when they arrive? If not they could be reintroducing the virus to areas where it's below 1.0.

The government 'hopes' to reopen borders to tourists within a few weeks. Will they be tested at the airports? Very unlikely.

And the election is to go ahead on 28 June...........

not the same kind of illness at all....


then you haven't been paying attention... forget what they say, pay attention to what they do... (which is crooked deals for their cronies)


well the EU's 'solution' seems to be more debt and loans (which is exactly what got countries like Italy into problems in the first place)....

there's no way to square the circle of different kinds of EU economies (though that's a subject for another thread).

I've been doing a lot of research in this area so I suggest you don't contradict me without basis. A virus is a virus. There are many broad spectrum antivirals that will potentially work. That is why the ebola medication remdesivir s being trailed, and the russians just repurposed a flu anti-viral. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8375619/Russia-approving-Japanese-COVID-19-drug-roll-game-changer-week.html?fbclid=IwAR0nkmBFaMhvZVu34cGTsiNA6JJQquElt1f_MOdg2Mv-vwZErhO4D4Nhfcw

For Atch,

theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-the-r-number-still-useful-138542

Short answer: it's important... but just one of many important things

Money quote: "R reveals nothing about how many people will be hospitalised or die, both of which are essential data for designing public health policy during an outbreak"

@amiga500
Actually my sister is a Doctor in NYC. A PHD Emergency room Doctor for more than 20 years who has been published, who also has a minor in infectious disease. Treating patients on the front lines of this virus. It is NOT "virus is a virus". Not even close. Ventilators were over used and not needed for the vast majority of patients who were on them at first. Patients being "prone" showed much better results than ventilators given gravity's effect on the bodys organs and how they work under pressure.

@Atch
Your statement made it appear or sound like the virus is spreading all over Poland uncontrolled. This is simply not the case and not supported by any set of facts. RO is under 1, and Ukraines infections are pretty close to Polands. All people coming in are having temps checked.

My statement is simple. The virus is not going away. It will make cycles around the world, like the flu, and like the Spanish flu in 1918. We all know how it spreads now. Its not going to spread in a corn field with workers spaced far apart from each other. Its not going to happen walking through the park. Get in a closed environment with an infected person and no social distancing you have a chance to be infected. Panic mongering is a waste of time.

this seems to be a real factor.... if I had more time I'd try to find out how many nursing homes (one of the most dangerous vectors) in various countries use canned air (air conditioning and air heating) I can't help feeling that both the low nursing home residence and lack of AC (or heated air) in them is playing a role...

I hundred percent agree, and i read about this two months ago that ventilators were doing more harm than good. And in fact was reading about prone positons used in nursing homes in 1960s during influenza outbreaks. I was a bit hasty in saying thats not a treatment, but we're talking about two different things. The symptoms and treatment of covid-19 disease, and inhibiting the replication of sars-cov-2 virus, where successfull treatment will prevent hospital admission or at least prevent sarsv2 leading to serious covid-19 symptoms.

They don't sleep in the fields, do they? What kind of conditions do they live in?


Source? And please don't say the government.


Not much help if you have it without symptoms.

As for the social distancing you mention, that is of no use in Poland as it's no longer being observed. I got on the tram today. It was completely empty. Old Biddy climbs aboard, nose poking out of her mask and sits down in the seat directly behind me. That kind of thing happens every day. And the trams and buses are carrying well above the officially designated number of people. In Ireland, public transport has huge stickers displayed on the seats that are prohibited from use, to avoid situations where selfish or stupid people fail to observe the public health advice to keep a distance.

@Maf, nursing homes in Ireland don't have air conditioning and most deaths in Ireland have occurred in nursing homes.

The article you linked to acknowledges that the R number is not just important, but crucial. In Poland, using official government figures, the R number has dipped just below 1.0 on a couple of occasions but keeps climbing back up and that's the crucial point to note in the rate of infection in Poland. It's down from the beginning because of the restrictions and the closed borders. There is every chance that it will climb back up to the point that it was at in March. As I've said before I'm not in a state of panic, I just think that things are not being very well managed and the main issue on the government's mind is getting Duda back into power. Once he's in, they really don't give a flying fiddlers about the state of the nation.

I dunno... I googled Ireland nursing homes HVAC and the results seem to indicate that central air circulating systems are used...

see here: sweeneyrenewables.com/news/item/heating-solutions-for-nursing-homes

How are Irish buildings usually heated? Steam heat (like Poland) gas? or heated air through vents? Something else?

And I've visited :)) Even in a purpose built care home, it's rare to find air conditioning. They may have it, but they don't seem to use it. Usually they feel quite stuffy. There are a number of nursing homes located in large, old houses and with the very temperate climate we have in Ireland, air conditioning would be seen as a needless expense.


If you're anywhere on the coastline, then it's gas. Otherwise oil fired heating where the boiler is served by a tank of oil is very common. Oh and we also have solid fuel central heating but that's less common and you have to use smokeless fuel in most parts of the country.

@Atch
You have every right and opportunity to move away from the old biddy if you are concerned. You are responsible for your heath, not someone else. They are responsible for their own. Pretty simple concept if people just take care of their own selves.

You're right though, Ukraine workers dont sleep in fields. So, since they have been crossing in great numbers for the last week we should expect to see a massive spike any day now shouldn't we? Dont use the government RO number? Which one should I use, the one prepared from the kid working the drive through window at McDonalds?

the numbers are clear. Since May first 50% or more on average infections have come from Silesia and Lower Silesia. Most of those coming from miners and their family members. This is not a massive public pandemic any longer. Its pretty clear the real danger ended in April for the general public. Those with underlying issues, in care homes, and in mines are the ones at risk. Not healthy people, generally speaking.

Which I did. That's not the point. The point is that we are ALL supposed to behave responsibly. Social distancing only works if it's observed by the majority. As I said in an earlier post, why are the seats on the buses/trams not marked in some way to guide people as to where they can sit at a safe distance? Otherwise you're relying on people to exercise common sense and consideration for others.


No, you should expect to see a steady increase over the next couple of months nationwide and you will certainly see more workplace clusters. But the government won't acknowledge it until they have no other choice.

@Atch
As I said, we can only control ourselves. Other people do something and we react, which you did. Public transport in Krakow and Katowice clearly marked seats where people can distance from others. Not sure why every other city didnt do this.

I disagree on the monthly growth. The infections were never growing that quickly here. We will see as summer comes infections eventually go to zero. The virus doesnt survive heat and humidity. We will likely see it come back in October and November when we enter colder dryer weather, and those from the southern hemisphere who are A symptomatic visit Poland when it is their spring/summer holiday season. Then everyone should still have some masks and understand how to go back to social distancing should it become a bigger problem.

I quite agree...it would seem that transport companies need to be a little more pro active when it comes to dealing with the public....after all the idea is to prevent a second spike.....whilst it would seem from other posts that Krakow etc did actually mark seats it seems to have remained in Krakow and was not adopted by the rest of Poland....? I would imagine this is not due to some form of recent evidence suggesting that things are getting better and there is no need to social distance on trams etc, but rather due to complacency in have a good plan for the whole of Poland.

Yesterday down, today up....

Fatalities (daily total) 23 the highest rate since sometime in April... the age wasn't given for one victim and averages 77 for the other 22..

Hospitalizations (running total) back down a bit to 2150, which is 69 less than yesterday.

Cured 288 (up from yesterday and just under the number of new cases)


Except that it gives no information on two of the most important numbers for establishing public health policy...

the more serious for more people the more important the R number... the less serious for more people the less important, the Wuhan flu is just not that dangerous for a very large percentage of the population so it's an important factor, sure, but not that crucial in the larger scheme of things...

Because there was obviously no government directive in that respect. It was probably left up to local authorities to liaise with transport providers to decide what to do. Public health policy needs to be determined by a national public health emergency team of professionals and not by city councillors or transport companies.


If you mean deaths and hospital cases, you need to know your R0 number in order to determine your health policy. If a virus is especially dangerous to those over 65 and 15% of your population is in that age range, knowing the R0 number helps you to determine how many hospital cases you're likely to see and how many deaths. In any case I think we're all agreed that the confirmed number of cases in Poland is far higher than the official figure.

Ireland, population 4.9 million, population over 65, 13% cases 25,111, deaths 1,659

Poland population 38 million, population over 65, 17%, cases 24,687, deaths 1,115

Now does that make any sense to you? Ireland has about one eighth of the population of Poland, a lower percentage of over 65s and yet Poland has the same number of cases and fewer deaths???

Once more I will quote from the link: ""R(0) reveals nothing about how many people will be hospitalised or die, both of which are essential data for designing public health policy during an outbreak"


Yes, but that doesn't matter that much since the virus isn't really dangerous to most people if this were ebola or something with a significantly broader mortality profile then R0 would be a lot more important.

And despite all the mistakes Poland has made the death rate (adjusted for population) is about 5 times lower... my hypotheses* are that one important difference might be that there are far fewer people (per capita) in nursing homes in Poland... there might be other contributing factors as well (climate, genetic, percentage of foreign workers dealing with the elderly, which particular strain is established... who knows?)

*I don't think the numbers are manipulated to a great degree because... I don't think the government could get away with it, they're not smart enough to cover their tracks well enough

Polish people at advanced ages still like to be independent. They want to live at home and go to the market on their own for as long as they can. This difference in Ireland doesn't surprise me at all. There is simply a different mentality in the aged community, and in the community that takes care of them.

I may be wrong, but I think when public transport rules were announced, wasn't there a government directive for the marking off of seating for everyone?

Information from a friend of mine over night. Some places refusing to rent hotel rooms to people from Silesia when booking rooms for a weekend get away within Poland due to the situation there. This could be worth watching.

You've never been to Ireland, have you? If you did, you'd see how active older people are, plenty of old fellas in their 80s still working on the farrm etc. Loads of people in their seventies volunteering, coaching sports and so on. We have fewer people in nursing homes per capita than Germany, France, Norway or Sweden for example.

The anger is growing in Silesia, that much is clear. With it being a 'swing state' in Polish politics, you have to wonder how the government plan to put out the fire there.

@Atch
Look at the number of citizens in the country. Simply by sheer numbers, Poland should have more in nursing homes, and more deaths. The volume of older people in Poland alone would make the average person assume more deaths in Poland. But there isn't like you pointed out. While yes, Irish are also active in their older ages, Poland greatly outnumbers them. I think the reason outside of simply having a larger population is because Polish people just refuse to leave home as they age. My opinion based on my observations and interaction with people. Nothing scientific, just opinion.

Science though may provide an explanation to why fewer Poles have died. I suspect it is this TB shot everyone got in Poland. Again, just my suspicion, nothing for sure scientific on it, but if you look at the difference between USA and Poland infections and deaths where USA does not require this TB shot, there might be a connection. Some have talked about it, and with COVID attacking the lungs, I suspect theres a connection. My opinion not fact.

But 3.5 times as many beds in care homes per 100,000 than Poland*....which is maybe partly why the Irish fatality rate has so far been 11 times that of Poland** (per million residents) that is roughly 340 for Ireland versus 29 for Poland...

The average ages for deaths in the two countries
Ireland: median 84, mean 82
Poland: median 77, mean 75

I don't know enough about the age structure of the populations of both countries (and won't search right this moment) to draw any inferences from that....

sources:
* gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_490-5100-nursing-and-elderly-home-beds-per-100-000/visualizations/#id=20069
** statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/


I think that's one factor for sure (though the medical establishment doesn't seem to want to explore that, any more than it wants to explore things like genetic diversity and percentage of foreign born even though once you start looking there seem to be correlations....)

@mafketis
Being born in USA, I can tell you my first two winters in Poland I got sick more often and for longer periods of time. This year, not sick at all. My USA Doctor who was born in Warsaw, said that immune systems of Polish people, and Europeans in general is better than those in USA simply because of lifestyle, eating habits and genetics. While of course it was his own opinion as a DR. I cant help but believe it may have some truth to it. Fortunately too, I also had the TB shot as I elected to do it as a teen. I think its pretty obvious ethnicity has something to do with this as well.

Ups and downs continue..... but today it's all downs... I expect some of these to increase again tomorrow...

Fatalities (daily total) 2 the lost number since March 31.. (ages 67 and 83, average..... 75)

Hospitalizations (running total) down 49 to 2101

Cured (daily total) 213...