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Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 3



GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1471

they somehow managed to have the state honor guard be present

Ridiculous. I always thought about monarchists as of harmless clowns but yours don't seem that harmless. Also, it may be true that Dugin's nazism is not racial in its nature but still he does basically undermine in his thought the right to independent existence of countries between Germany and Russia, and whilst it can be to some extent justified, from the Russian point of view, towards Belarus or partially even Ukraine, then adapting the same approach to Poland (which Dugin does) - a country with longer statehood tradition than Russia - is nothing short of nonsensical.

I would be much more optimistic about the future of peace in Eastern Europe if Dugin and his ilk landed where they belong - the refuse dump of history.

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1472

more optimistic about the future of peace in Eastern Europe if Dugin and his ilk landed where they belong - the refuse dump of history.

Amen bro.

Do you have any of these idiots in Poland?

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1473

Do you have any of these idiots in Poland?

We sure do, but ours are not nearly as ominous as yours and are treated more like cabaret elements of political scene than anything else.

cms neuf
23 Aug 2022  #1474

I think that in Russia there are about 2 million people - maybe 2 percent of the population, who live a nice life and want to keep it that way. And a BMW is a vulgar way of showing you belong to this class of thieves.

Very few of those 2m people have kids getting their limbs blown off in Ukraine

Reading about Kalinin is interesting - he was unable to prevent Stalin from imprisoning and torturing his wife, but he still kept his own position - sitting through all those meetings about steel production and cement factories while his wife was being water boarded. Typical Russia

Korvinus
23 Aug 2022  #1475

How much Poles support Poland`s situation. Involvement of Poland in things where Poland is involved.

Listen buck, I get the feeling you may not understand an average Polish person's opinion on the war.
Russia musn't just lose, it has to be thoroughly glassed and its soil salted, so as to be rendered uninhabitable for the next several hundred years, and that's the bare minimum.

Myself being rather pacifistic and somewhat well-intentioned towards Russia, I don't even consider chopping 50% of all Russians to bits and boiling the other 50% in their blood, which some people would prefer.

Russia is Poland's existential enemy. Every loss of Russia (including a loss against Ukraine) is a win for Poland.

Kashub1410
23 Aug 2022  #1476

@Korvinus
Which can only be solved by a mutual union or destruction of one or the other. I know which I would rather prefer, problem is it has been refused several times.

Pride of both nations halters this greatly and lack of a visioneer from both sides

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1477

Russia is Poland's existential enemy.

Hardly. Does Russia have any legitimate (or illegitimate) territorial claims on Poland? Do Russians consider Poles racially inferior and fit only to be exterminated? No? Not an existential enemy then, merely a geopolitical opponent.

True, it is in our interest for Ukraine to win this particular war, but I wouldn't make such general statements as the one you made above.

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1478

Not an existential enemy then

Mhmm. You wouldn't find any rational Russian, in government, or out scrubbing the streets, that considers Poland an "existential enemy". That's reserved for America, before them the French, and before those - the Swedes and Mongols and Teutonic Knights.

The hate for Poland, if a Russian feels it (rare), is over perceived meddling in Ukrainian affairs. The ancient issues which existed during the Time of Troubles (Sigismund and Wladislaw trying to capture the throne, attempts at Catholicization, etc) are all but forgotten and really only poured over by history nerds.

Ukraine is the overriding issue in our relations. Most Russians blame Poles for muddling Ukrainian minds during their centuries of control over Ukraine's Right Bank, and setting them against us. It is believed that Poles created the idea of a separate Ukrainian identity in order to introduce a split in our ranks. The differences we see between ourselves and Ukrainians are attributed to them picking up habits and behaviors from Poles.

Every educated Russian understands that Poland is a real country, and that Poles are real people. Lech, Czech, and Rus' - all that stuff - we know you are as ancient in your origins as us. Just a little too affected by Germans and unfortunately Catholic.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1479

The differences we see between ourselves and Ukrainians are attributed to them picking up habits and behaviors from Poles.

Well, they are Ukrainian (border people) after all - showing mixed eastern and western Slavic characteristics. Only natural.

As for Polish-Russian geopolitical opposition, I blame the Polish-Lithuanian union. Lithuania drew us into countless wars in the vast eastern steppes, bleeding us dry and unavoidably setting us up as a "natural enemy" of Russia. This "Jagiellonian heritage" haunts us to this very day. If only Poland concentrated her forces and resources in our heartlands and in the West, our borders would be even further westwards today and Poland would resemble Germany much more, with, of course, strong Slavic element - kind of Czech Republic on steroids - much larger, populous and richer but basically a western country; and in such scenario Prussia would never have risen (sorry, BB) and we would have probably avoided WW1 and WW2.

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1480

Poland would resemble Germany much more... basically a western country

Now you start again... Why this complex of inferiority? Even many Germans don't feel very comfortable in "the West". Slavs are different and it's OK (Czechs are just weird mutants who forgot their own fathers). When Poland and Russia were part of one empire (towards the end of the Napoleonic Wars, and then thru the beginning of WW1) it was the strongest power in Europe. The other Westerners needed to build huge coalitions to even have a chance at defeating us (Hungarian Revolution 1848, Crimean War, WWI). If not for the criminal incompetence of Nikolai II, it would probably be a top 3 economy right now alongside America and China (look at explosive economic growth between 1890 and 1914).

Together we can do great things :) Great Rus, White Rus, Little Rus, and of course Poland.

Cojestdocholery
23 Aug 2022  #1481

Girkin

To be honest he make a lot of good point. Putin bulid a thiving system in Russia and those guys have no limits. Those generals are morons, there is no a path to promote professional not thiving not corrupt people.

Ukrainie put up a fight and they fight better than Russia even on paper Russia should have won.
That is directly Putin and his system of thivery that rules in Russia fault.
Don't take me worng I think it is a good thing. After all Russia has nothing to offer but crap, so better they loose. I'm only saying that Putin and his cronies are too blame for Russia loosing/preforming so badly and I don't mean in a political way.

They created that sytem that doesn't work. Yet they have delusion to be on a par with the USA. DElusional not less than those Romanov 'prince' idiots.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1482

Why this complex of inferiority?

Not at all. We merely observe what is effective and try to emulate, adding it to our already existing greatness! It was many Germans, Scots, Dutch and Tatars who, after arriving in Poland, assimilated completely and turned into Poles. Wouldn't be possible if we were an inferior culture, would it? We are kinda like Borg (only more benevolent :)). That's why I said in one of our earlier conversations that if Poland won in 1612 we would have created something resembling Slavic United States (only 150 years before the actual USA) - with Polish 'golden freedom' - and today we would be living in a unipolar world, with Poland as the only world superpower.

Together we can do great things :) Great Rus, White Rus, Little Rus, and of course Poland.

But that would require reinstating Rzeczpospolita (with Belarus and Ukraine within our borders) to keep the balance between eastern and western Slavic elements, Russia becoming more polonized and Poland becoming more russicized. Yes, in such case it would be a fearful alliance! Nice vision but rather unrealistic in current geopolitical situation, I'm afraid. :)

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1483

To be honest he make a lot of good point.

His best point is that we should have finished the job in 2014. When people were putting up Russian flags over the Kharkov city administration, and pro-Russian people were getting burned alive for their beliefs in Odessa. If Russia threw the full force of its strength in support of these people, and gave the Donbas separatists all the weapons and funds they needed, we could have ended the war in short order. The central government of Ukraine was weak and corrupt to the core, and it's military was impotent. Instead, Putin allowed them an additional 8 years to militarize and preach hate for Russia through his stupid Minsk II Accords. For 8 years the Ukrainians prepared for war, and surprise, surprise, it was not the same cakewalk in 2022 as it was in 2014.

Girkin is right about one thing, if you start something, you should finish it (we would get the same Western sanctions then, that we're getting now). Contenting himself with Crimea (because he was still afraid of overstepping and causing the West to overreact), Putin abandoned all the people in Ukraine that wished for Union with Russia, and showed them that Russia does not protect its own.

We still have to finish this job now, but it's exponentially harder because of Putin's lack of confidence earlier.

jon357
23 Aug 2022  #1484

@Bobko
Are you still here spamming the forum with your scummy orc propaganda?

You do not have to "finish this job"

You r*SSisnd have to get out of Ukraine, pay wear reparations for every bit of damage done and surrender your war criminals for trial.

cms neuf
23 Aug 2022  #1485

You mean finish the job before the people of Kharkiv and Donetsk realize that living under Russian rule sucks, that your army are barbarians, thieves, rapists, murderers determined to take them back to the Stone Age ?

You mean before you smeared excrement on the walls, stole the kids toys and sent their fridges back to your moms

Yes - that might have worked. Too late now and if anyone's finishing the job it's going to be the Ukrainian army, with some awesome missiles and guns actually work.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1486

We still have to finish this job now

How? Ukraine keeps getting new weapons, Russia loses tons of hers and can't easily replace them. Ukrainian will to fight remains quite strong, Russian becomes weaker each day. Ukraine can still mobilize a lot of troops, Russians seem to have serious problems with that.

Wouldn't that be a good time to consider peace talks?

jon357
23 Aug 2022  #1487

peace talks?

Unconditional surrender, reparations, war crimes trials.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1488

Unconditional surrender

That would only happen in case of Russian total and humiliating defeat. If the peace talks started now, this scenario would be avoided. That's why sensible Russians should seriously consider peace now, even without achieving all Russia's aims in this war. Otherwise they risk a huge defeat; the defeat is not 100% certain but quite probable. Too probable to risk it.

Maybe that's why Daria Dugina died? The peace faction striking against the warmongers?

PolAmKrakow
23 Aug 2022  #1489

Although Boko's history lesson is interesting, and the ideas contained in it are also interesting, it is history. What is not history, is that the war right now is at a standstill. Russia is not gaining ground and Ukraine is slowly gaining back villages. Russian soldiers are tired, and there are not enough of them to maintain the force they have or to accomplish the goals. Ukraine is now getting key equipment to continue gaining ground as autumn approaches. Demining equipment and other equipment best used for close fighting is now on the way. This is for a ground counter offensive that has slowly begun.

The only real question is, will Ukraine be able to put enough men on the field to fully engage Russia? If they can equal the Russian numbers, Russia will be wiped out before the end of November at least in Kherson. Tomorrow will be 6 months, and still Russia does not have control of the situation, and is actually losing control not only in the land they occupy in Ukraine, but they are losing control at home with all the strange explosions.

It is Putin that should call for negotiations now, not Z. Putin needs to be looking for a way out of this now because defeat will be deadly for him personally most likely. Defeat really is not an option for Putin, and a win for Ukraine is simply not allowing Russia to take the whole country.

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1490

Ukraine can still mobilize a lot of troops, Russians seem to have serious problems with that.

Russia has not even begun to mobilize. To date we have focused only on volunteers (even Wagner's convict recruits were volunteers). A Russian mobilization would involve millions of people.

Regarding weapons - unless the West is willing to spend hundreds of billions annually for years on end, then our advantage will not seriously erode. We don't need dollars or euros to fund our military machine (this argument never made sense to me), since we pay for all our weapons in rubles, primarily to state-owned entities. We do need diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, rare metals, titanium, steel, however. Thankfully, we have that in abundance. Over the last six months we have stockpiled all the chips we need for more sophisticated equipment through channels in China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, et al.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1491

Over the last six months we have stockpiled all the chips we need for more sophisticated equipment

So, we are back to the old war of attrition plan. Considering the disproportional drop in GDP for Ukraine and Russia this year (45% and 11% respectively) that might work. However, it is highly unlikely that the West will just sit and watch it happen, so Ukraine will be flooded with money and weapons. In the long run, is Russia ready for such a long war? And most importantly - is it worth it?

I still think now would be the perfect time to start peace negotiations.

Kashub1410
23 Aug 2022  #1492

@Bobko
Problem is Putin will personally avoid any mass mobilization for same reason France was delaying it in 1939.

It would most likely lead to same situation as 1917 and Putin has stated many times that it's important for him to not have a civil war within a country that has nuclear warheads. (Which also one of the many reasons he very authoritarian towards dissent).

Arming lots of young Russian men, with potential to perform a coup d'etat is not his wish unless he becomes really desperate and thought he will lose anyway. (To atleast salvage Russia/his reputation as state leader).

So I wouldn't be surprised if western intelligence agencies and Ukrainian army is working very hard for Putin to organise a mass mobilization. (Which Putin clearly knows, considering he hasn't done it yet)

Velund
23 Aug 2022  #1493

However, it is highly unlikely that the West will just sit and watch it happen,

I think West will jump and run instead, in a mere months, to get little more warm in all that clothes they will be able to wear at once... ;) German industry will be ruined, US will spend all they was able to siphon from Europe to keep living standard till elections... And then we will have interesting situation, especially if Reps will take it all.

PolAmKrakow
23 Aug 2022  #1494

@Bobko
Only that bit of chip propaganda does not hold water. There was a chip shortage over a year ago even in China. Chips could not be bought up and hoarded without being noticed not only by other militaries, but it would have been reflected in the stock market. The claim also does not reflect the current state of weapons Russia has and is using. While I appreciate the need to want to keep the party line on things, at least do so with facts that can not be easily contradicted.

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1495

Veli! Nice to see you, man, where have you been lurking? :)

And then we will have interesting situation

That's for sure! I wouldn't count on West collapsing that easily though - German industry can suffer but still remain very strong and for the US it's a question of maintaining world hegemony, so they will not back down so easily.

pawian
23 Aug 2022  #1496

German industry will be ruined

AmaSSing that Polish nationalists also hope that will happen. Out of question, guys.
Besides, Germans are masters at rebuilding their industry. Ha!

To date we have focused only on volunteers

Stop lying. Forced conscription is taking place in occupied territories. RuSSists pay family members to give away their make relatives who are hiding from drafting.

Veli! Nice to see you, man

No, not nice to see you, RuSSist. :):)

GefreiterKania
23 Aug 2022  #1497

Polish nationalists also hope that will happen.

Doubt it. The fall of German industry would mean an economic catastrophe for Poland, as we discussed in the other thread in the Polish language section. Why would Polish nationalists want such disaster for their country?

pawian
23 Aug 2022  #1498

A Russian mobilization would involve millions of people.

Who will run away from the front hearing the first shot. Don`t be silly. The millions of worthless soldiers mean millions of worthless deaths and finally a revolution in RuSSia like in 1917.

Why would Polish nationalists want such disaster for their country?

Coz they are biased morons who stop thinking when German topics are brought up.

Bobko
23 Aug 2022  #1499

There was a chip shortage over a year ago even in China

You are talking about much more complicated chips than are needed in most weapon systems. Remember, that your iPhone has more computing power than a F-22 fighter jet. Military and civilian chips have few differences in technical requirements (chips intended for use in space are much more complex to manufacture), so Russia has opted in many cases to use civilian grade chips within military systems. If they are less reliable than military-grade chips, this problem is easily solved through redundancy. The types of chips for which there was a shortage are not needed. Cruise missiles and other such things are not mass produced items, so it is conceivable that repurposed chips can be adapted by hand with the old soldering instruments.

jon357
23 Aug 2022  #1500

That would only happen in case of Russian total and humiliating defeat.

Hopefully that will be the outcome. Anything else will risk them trying again in the future.

should seriously consider peace now,

Without reparations? With war criminals getting away with their crimes? With r*SSia out of Crimea and Donbas but ready to strike those parts of Ukraine again once they rearm? With sanctions against r*SSia lasting for decades?

Too risky.


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