Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 6

You may very well be right, BB, because you are a smart guy, not an idiot like the rest of them, mindless Russia haters.
If the one I quoted first said what you just did, I would be impressed and actually agree with it.

I still think Ukraine did this:

1) The map of where flooding will occur as a result - shows that 95%+ of the flooded territory is Russian controlled.

2) A lot of our defensive lines constructed over the past few months are in the zone of flooding. Trenches are being flooded, minefields are being washed away.

3) That dam was our last option to return to Kherson (city), after the larger Antonovsky Bridge was made unusable. Now a return to that side of the Dnieper will be challenging.

4) It will take years to repair. That is years without water in the Crimean Canal. Back to square one.

5) Nobody really expected the Ukrainians to attack over the Dnieper.

6) It will be difficult for us to rotate the reserves from the Kherson front, to other sectors of the front that may be threatened - because roads and fields are flooded. Some of our tanks and artillery might have gone for a swim.

....and the timing?

Imagine the ukrainian army just starting to move forward with all their new tanks and weapon systems....now having to stop again because of the flooding....only coincidental?

Destroying the dam looks from afar like a truly desperate measure by the military leadership who truly fear that counteroffensive....that timing!

Why would they stop?

Did you expect them to attempt a Normandy-style landing across the Dnieper, one of the widest rivers in the world?

Where they plan to attack, where they need to attack, this flooding creates no issues.

However it makes it difficult for Russia to rotate troops from the "sleepy" Kherson front, to the "hot" Zaporozhye front - since those poor guys are being flooded now.

Ukraine's plan is so simple, a child can understand it. Cut south, to Berdiansk or Melitopol. Cut Russia's "Crimea land bridge". If that is done, Kherson will "liberate" itself, through Russian logistical issues.

Therefore flooding Kherson in no way impacts Ukraine's offensive potential.

Our big cats are bad swimmers....


Still....it wouldn't fit to a counteroffensive with tanks underway, it is detrimental to it....that timing is a proof!

In the period prior to them mining and destroying the dam, the r*SSians raised the water level in the reservoir by more than 50 feet in order that the flooding would be far more serious. Many millions of gallons more water.

And of course an orc military boat was seen in the reservoir close to the dam. Mining it, since that is the only way they could do such damage.

Again, the flood waters will not reach where your Leopards will be deployed.

This is good for Ukraine only.

Why on Earth would we spend months digging trenches only to flood them?

According to Peter Zeihan (and some other sources) you can't take out a dam with artillery, it can only be done with stationary explosives.... in other words, russia did it, possibly as a scorched earth policy and recognition that they can't keep Crimea long term...

Leaving aside other issues like russians claiming credit for it (like Malaysian airlines flight 17) until they realized the optics weren't good and trying to shift blame to the Ukrainians.... and russia shelling those trying to save people (since shooting at fleeing civilians is the russian national sport).

President Zelenskyy said much the same and he of course has so far been accurate and truthful.

The r*SSian denials are not credible. From much the same sources that denied the Salisbury poisonings, the murder of Litvinienko, the shooting down of the Malaysian passenger jumbo and more recently Bucha and Nordstream. r*SSia cares nothing for the truth and their denials are not to be believed.

Great. Now, in the first 24 hrs, everyone is suddenly a structural engineer and specialist on hydro dams.

The water volume behind the damn was higher than normal. This may be our fault. However, serious damage was done to it prior, in non-disputed instances, by UKR forces. The structure of the dam was already weakened. The higher pressure created by the taller water column on an already weakened structure could cause catastrophic collapse.

But really, let's not debate concrete and rebar, and instead look at who benefits.

....and not to forget, Russia had already done it before....for the same purpose, to stop an advancing army!

There's a very good post on Twitter that analyses how the r*SSian story has changed throughout the day. From them admitting it when they thought it was minor damage that would impact the Ukrainian defenders, right through a whole gamut of rubbish to absolute denial when they realised that they'd gone too far and wrecked the whole thing.

twitter.com/volodyatretyak/status/1666015265971118082?s=61

No "however"... it's russia's fault 100% because had russia not done this insane and destructive thing (invade Ukraine) it wouldn't have happened.

russia was not wanted or needed in Ukraine.... russia is not wanted or needed.... anywhere....

as Vlad Vexler (himself russian) put it

twitter.com/VladVexler/status/1666045702026215424

In this case, there's nothing I can really post in "opposition" to your theses. If everything can be traced back to the original sin of the invasion, how am I to debate you?

This war is a live thing. Evolving, changing. We are observers.

This covenant is not in good faith.

Bobko....do you know how long it took to rebuild the dam last time?

@Bratwurst Boy

What last time, it never got destroyed since it was built.

Was it not that one???

Dnieper dam blown up by Russians: 'To save it from Nazi bandits'

29 August 1941

The Russians have blown up the Dnieper dam at Zaporizhzhia, which feeds the Dneprostroi power plant, and have evacuated Dnepropetrovsk, the great industrial centre of Ukraine. Mr Lozovsky, the Soviet spokesman, told the press last night:

theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/02/second-world-war-dnieper-dam-blown-up-by-russians-1941

@Bratwurst Boy

Much bigger dam, higher upstream.

...na sowas....

*takes helmet*

Of course it was the Udmurtians - they start off denying it was damaged, by lunchtime crowing about it and by evening blaming it on the Ukrainians

It also has all the hallmarks of Putin - he ordered it blown up but his "advisors" were too chicken to tell him it would cut off Crimea's water.

It sends an important message to Macron, Brazil, South Africa and all the other wannabe powers - there is no negotiating with Udmurtia. They must leave, repair what they broke and send their war criminals for justice. That includes every single person engaged in this project - even the lady who made the tea for the lorry drivers who carried the explosives.

Stop manipulating and lying. The dam was blown up by explosives under it. Who controls the area? Russians do.


Yes, Russians do coz the flooded area is going to hamper of even prevent Ukrainians from attacking across the Dnipro River in that region. Yes, Russian fortifications have been flooded too but it is not a problem to you coz Ukrainians won`t try to cross the river which is 10 miles wide now.

Besides, Russians threatened to blow up the dam already last year.

I have no desire "to debate" you....

I just want you to understand that I realize the evil russia is doing and why the world despises you (and will continue to despise you). Rather than utilize the tremendous resources and potential within russia.... russians just want to invade and dominate others.

It's a sick and diseased culture that no one wants.

russia could have been a superpower but lost that possibility through its desire for empire.

This "Mafketis" - he knows how to debate Russians.

So they can flood you to avoid paying your pension? that would serve you right!

British TV were saying today that The Russians had most to gain from this.
I am not so sure.
Ukraine evacuated their people quite quickly.
But what will happen soon is that Crimea will run out of water.
Regaining Crimea would be massive for Ukraine.

That was one of the plans, because the south eask flank is very fortified.

They had a lot to gain from their original plan, detonating the mines they'd laid a year ago in order to breach the dam and flood one bank of the river.

Of course they messed it up, destroyed the whole thing and flooded both banks, something that may well work in Ukraine's favour long term.

That was my second guess.
A huge Russian mistake that will backfire on them.

On reflection, that option seems more realistic now.

Russians are absolutely useless at almost everything they do!

That's what commentators who've been following r*SSia's response to it have been saying today.

Also, the orcs claimed they'd destroyed a Leopard tank and published a picture of it. Problem was, the picture was of a combine harvester not a tank.

Combine harvesters and Leopard tanks are very easily confused.