very pessimistic about this offensive for a very long time.
No just realistic, anyway as kofman said, the first month did not go to plan, that does not determine the next month or three. wapo describes it a lot better than i could, basically this combined arms nato tactics takes years to master, and the ukris are doing the right thing, advancing slowly.
Western officials and analysts say Ukraine's military has so far embraced an attrition-based approach aimed largely at creating vulnerabilities in Russian lines by firing artillery and missiles at command, transport and logistics sites at the rear of the Russian position, instead of conducting what Western military officials call "combined arms" operations that involve coordinated maneuvers by large groups of tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, engineers, artillery and, sometimes, air power.
Ukraine's military leaders argue that, lacking air power, they must avoid unnecessary losses against an adversary with a far larger pool of recruits and weaponry. To preserve manpower, Ukraine has fielded just four of a dozen trained brigades in the current campaign.
"We cannot use meat-grinder tactics as the Russians do," Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's defense minister, said in an interview. "For us, the most precious thing is the lives and health of our soldiers. That is why our task is to achieve success at the front while protecting lives."
Analysts say Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses with armored units early in the offensive were met with overwhelming attacks by artillery, antitank missiles, loitering munitions and helicopter fire, generating significant losses. Ukrainian officials say Russia is especially quick to fire on armored vehicles and anti-mine equipment such as the Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) when they press forward.
As a result, Ukrainian commanders have embraced more low-profile advances involving groups of 15 to 50 people on foot, said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Some are sappers who advance on their bellies to find and disable enemy mines. Other infantry teams lie in wait with surface-to-air missiles to take down Russian helicopters.
washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/18/ukraine-counter-offensive-weapons-tactics/