Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 9

I was writing about flooding Polish/NATO reinforcements into the Baltics, through the gap. *rolls eyes*


Of course you realise that the defence of Kiev, as well as many other operations in this war, was conducted by the Ukrainian army according to the Polish Armia Nowego Wzoru strategy (very similar to what is in place in case of our plan of Manoeuver Battle in Defence of Warsaw and Vistula Line)?

Sometimes I have a feeling that I am out of my depth in this thread (and about this war, despite reading a lot about it) but some people here seem to be just typing messages randomly without thinking.


Same here! The weapons purchases by Poland are important but they are secondary compared to the benefits that we got from having the chance of testing our operational plans and programs in a real war. When the sh*t hits the fan (and it will), Polish army will also be a "different beast" as you so aptly put it. Damn Chinese and their proverbs about interesting times.

Immaterial.

When a rapid collapse did not happen, it was only a matter of time before we had to pull out.

It was an organized retreat. The Ukrainians were not able to inflict any meaningful damage, and we pulled out more or less intact. If we committed to a fight to the death, we could have created serious problems for the Ukrainians in Central Ukraine. The cost would have been losing a large part of the assets in that theater, however.

The key was the destruction of the airfield in Hostomel by Ukrainians artillery fire. This prevented IL-76 landing there with airborne reinforcements.

Our guys still maintained control of Hostomel, until our armored columns arrived by land. Despite all odds.

Perhaps the most impressive airborne operation in the last 80 years.

Yes, they will make a Rambo 5 movie about it someday.

Don't you feel that the damage estimation on the Russian side is severely distorted. I don't mean the official information in the media (that's understandable), but the general damage control by the Russian high command. Or do they consider it "acceptable losses" so far?


Certainly, there are different plans an their execution models depending on circumstances, but still - not everything went according to plan in your special military operation, at least give us that.


The fifth of Rambo movies (Last Blood) was filmed in 2019. Do keep up, Alien. ;)

Absolutely, I would be a fool to deny this. I'm just saying that things around Kiev collapsed for different reasons than the Ukrainian armed forces being a superior opponent. It was more a political miscalculation. The men in uniform performed admirably.


It is what it is. I think everyone has been sobered by the losses. However, the resources are there to recover those losses, and even improve.

Of course this will not return those young men from the dead.

Well, they'll make Rambo 6.

On both sides, taking everything into account.


Definitely.

I apologise for the "Russians are on their last legs, out of ammo and eating last hedgehogs" brigade. Forgive them. We have our fools.


Nor those who are likely to join them in the future. If only there was a viable way out of this mess. If only...

You are sarcastic, but it truly was a crazy operation.


For what? They are doing exactly what I want the enemy to do. I'm not American, or Polish. It's not an academic debate for me, despite me citing academic sources.

We Russians spent the time between 2014 and 2022 laughing at the Ukrainians (the absolute majority of Russians). A very few of us, thought this behavior was dangerously reckless. This disdainful attitude towards the Ukrainians, ended up costing us dearly.

If our Western "partners" want to commit the same mistake in regards to our capabilities, why would I correct them? Even on such a small forum :)

Crazy in a drunk failure kind of way

:)

Fair enough.


*sighs*

The russians cannot be underestimated, but with each passing day of this positional war, the probability that russia will take parallel military action against some other country decreases. However, it would be different if russia won the war with Ukraine.

Underestimating your enemy is probably the oldest trope in the book.

If it didn't lead to such tragic results, it could be funny. This is why it's so important to conduct a sober and dispassionate analysis of what is being done in the other camp.

Russians laughed at the Javelins Trump handed over (TRUMP!).

Russians thought the West was weak and uncoordinated in the aftermath of the Afghanistan pullout, not judging how the West may view things differently between Afghanistan and Ukraine.

Russians were emboldened by our success at embarrassing the West in Syria, not realizing that it was viewed as tertiary by the West.

I could keep listing Russian mistakes, but I don't want to feed the wretched.

What is important for you to know is that we are learning, and we are improving. Finally.

Oh, we know that. Even small people like me, and the big fishes' brains are boiling in comparison. :)

As for cms_neufses of this world... I suppose I'll just ignore them from now on (though they are a constant source of embarassment).

One wonders why you don't go to the front and put this military expertise to good use

Be sure to bring your own bandages

And your own food

I'm just as small as you brother. However, I have been talking to you for some years now - and I remember your amazing consistency.

Even last summer, already in June, you said you thought the Ukrainian counter-offensive was as likely to succeed as pigs learning to fly. Privately, I could not share your confidence. However, it turned out your instincts were on point.

For a small man, that often feels out of his depth - not bad at all.

What's more, a year and a half ago, you correctly predicted some of the current shifts in Ukrainian popular sentiments. Again, not bad.

Many people on Biden's National Security Council cannot say the same.

Who knows, I might. I'm in reserve for another 18 years, and chances are that the sh*t will hit the fan much earlier than that.

But that is nothing new. Russia has always been like that, first has to shed layers fi incompatane corrupt officials and people who were there during peacetime because they knew how to lick the boots of the higher-ups and nothing else. then after a few battles were lost countless Russians were killed in the process, and those slowly emerged who were capable and knew what to do...

----


I'm not saying much but I am worried. Given the state of our Army and our political system and a level of being prepared for a war.

I must say I am worried but I don't want to say too much on an open board.
----


Why don't you go?

@pawian
When it is the Leftist Democratic Socialists that are the ones acting like Soviets. You really need to stop watching the news backwards.

Now some stupid UK kunt Alicia Kerns is threatening the US to "wake up" and help Ukraine or the EU wont be there to help with Taiwan. Apparently this stuipd biatch did not read the news las week when Biden said publicly that the US does not support an independent Taiwan. Essentially saying the US will broker some kind of deal between Chinca and Taiwan. That equals no war is likely now. And, making some bull$hit threats is not the way to motivate any American to do anything for someone they dont know. It is amazing how many absolute retards get into elected positions around the world.

Thanks. I suppose I have my moments.


Yip, they start their wars in a moderately successful manner but then the steamroller starts rolling. Typical.


You can't say anything that they already don't know, Iron. Poles and Russians - we know each other like bald horses (if only I knew how to say that properly in English).

I would very much like to hear what Ironside has to say. I think I gave an unvarnished opinion from the Russian side. Again, this forum is small. There is a dozen of us talking in circles here. It would be nice to see some refreshing candidness.

Well, we are far from ready. It's an F mess, and so far the new government doesn't seem to have a plan, but on a strategic level, it seems to act stupid to cancel CPL.

On a detailed level, they play like stupid no-clue politicians they play with generals they fire one general appointed by PiS. Wow, how clever and need it is that. What they are doing? Not that I expect much from this ginger kut.s.

Relax, man.

I'm a small man, like Kania says, but here's my promise to you - Russians will not stand behind the Kremlin if it attacks Poland or others in NATO. That would be the end of our country as we know it, and it's no great consolation that we will take tens of millions of Westerners with us.

Comparing NATO and Ukraine is to compare apples and oranges.

We are human beings also, and we also want to live, love, have families, and enjoy the life of this world.

Hear, hear!

The only hope I have is that Poland (very much like Russia) in never either as strong or as weak as she seems.


You mean CPK? It won't be cancelled. Some plans will perhaps be adjusted but it will be built.


Wow... that really is a poignant statement. And I meant it.


Here's hoping. *fingers crossed*

By the way, brother, where's you Pan-Slavic manifesto? I can't wait to read it.

I tried starting it a couple times, and I get something resembling your first post in that thread (which was so misunderstood). No joke, in one attempt, my post ended up being 2,500 words long.

I'm not sure I can do it actually.

In terms of battalion tactical groups, we have few of them and I won't say that even those are fully ready for development, then add to this a poor state of logistics, and what's more, in some cases we don't have enough munition stored to use those few artillery pieces that we have to its full potential.

They 'think' about expanding production. wow!
The same with Blaszczak's enlargement of the number of soldiers, they take in anyone women included, and in the times of W, I predict those new 'soldiers' will show up in a staggering 60 to 40%. Not that all of them are properly vetted and trained.

I haven't even started. maybe I should shut up? The number of professional soldiers with skills who are leaving the army due to dumb-ass lickers being promoted and put in charge is mind-boggling.

I should stop!

This is what Serdyukov created in Russia, after masturbating at the American army.

In this war, it has been shown that BTGs are absolute sh*t.

Just like during the times of our grandfathers, we again need divisions and army corps. But... surprise, surprise... almost nobody knows how to command and control such a formation now.

So don't get too excited about Battalion Tactical Groups.

Recruitment issues you mention, are common to all modern militaries.

Damn it! Stop teasing me and let me read it already.


Well, I couldn't so I deflected into the old Intermarium idea. But this book is still there inside me.


Not at all. It's always good to get things off your chest. :) And you are not saying anything that we (or they) don't know already. However, to cheer you up a bit I will send you an uplifting book (written last year and very much on the topic that we are discussing). PM me your address.

The fact that it doesn't work in Russia doesn't mean that much. The concept is not stupid in itself, it depends on how it is implemented and needs some discretion given to lower command. This is where Russia failed due to its preference for strict control over a chain of command.

I see it rather in my post as a replacement for an old expression number of troops in line. It means those who will do actual fighting as opposed to support teams like logistics and so on.

That's a big part of the idea of a BTG. A concentrated "fist", with minimal non-combat makeup. Problems begin when you start imagining its workings within a greater whole.

By the way, I see there is a hate campaign against Girkin. I see a lot of similarities between myself and him in the way that he has to deal with the dumb establishment. He knows he could do it right or at leats better and they don't let him, he must be frustrated.