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Brexit 2019 and Poland



delphiandomine
2 Dec 2020  #3,211

Fish is no different in principal,

But this is the price of the FTA that the UK wants. The UK can take it or leave it, but leaving it will cause monstrous economic problems. The UK government know fine well that many Brexit voters hadn't considered the real impact of leaving - it's already proving to be a terrible shock for those who were used to freedom of movement.

Having said that, the UK Government also isn't telling anyone anything. They can't win, and they know it.

mafketis
2 Dec 2020  #3,212

, but leaving it will cause monstrous economic problems

worse than the horrible lockdown policies?

UK_after_Brexit
26 Dec 2020  #3,213

Merged:

Britain is 5th largest economy in the world AGAIN...



...after leapfrogging India. Britain has retaken the 5th place, despite the pandemic. Looks like Brexit is slowly starting to pay off. Food for thought for countries like Poland who might want to both keep their independence and strenghten their economy. Any comments?

thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-is-fifth-largest-economy-in-world-again-after-leapfrogging-india-wccxxxcqr

Crow
26 Dec 2020  #3,214

like Brexit is slowly starting to pay off.

Well, Brexit is salvation. EU orgies arent pleasant. Even Britain don't deserve such a massive penetration.

cms neuf
26 Dec 2020  #3,215

Maybe we will sit for a while and see how it works out for Britain - then we will know if it's a good idea

Ironside
26 Dec 2020  #3,216

for countries like Poland who might want to both keep their independence and strenghten their economy. Any comments?

What to say? I agree with you.

Tacitus
26 Dec 2020  #3,217

Thanks to Brexit, aka the greatest act of self-harm in British history, they won't stay there for long.

However we should be grateful to the British. Their sacrifice has ensured that approval for the EU has soared and even the ultra-nationalists in e.g. France habe dropped their demands for leaving the EU.

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,218

It's way too soon to judge any effects of Brexit.... I'd say it would take at least 2 years before serious judgement can even begin to be made...

And the EU will be having its own problems trying to enforce further austerity while the entire southern edge plunges into full-scale depression...

approval for the EU doesn't do a single thing about Italian debt....

rtfm
26 Dec 2020  #3,219

I agree it's too soon to judge if it's going to be a financial success but the main point for many was about becoming a sovereign nation again and not part of the inceasingly totalitarian eussr.

There may be a finacial price to pay for freedom but it's worth it. Unlike the financial price for covid which is just money spunked down the bog.

I don't believe Poland will leave until it starts being a net contributor to the EU, at the moment it's all free money and work opportunities but when Turkey eventually manages to join and suddenly the free money tree is Polish wages paying for turkish factories to steal eastern European manufactoring instead of paying for Polish infrastructure and the cheap labour is no longer in Eastern Europe the mood will change.

Tacitus
26 Dec 2020  #3,220

not part of the inceasingly totalitarian eussr.

Since the EU is none of those things, we can already that see any price the UK already has and will pay for leaving the EU is not worth it. But that ties into the Brexiteer narrative. Most of them have either realized by now or knew all along that leaving the EU was a stupid idea, so they try to defend it by painting the EU - which is many ways more democratically organized than the UK with its' hereditary head of state and unelected House of Lords - as that villainous organization.

GefreiterKania
26 Dec 2020  #3,221

enforce further austerity

Hm... in general austerity would seem to be the right approach when we deal with a state near bankruptcy, but it is somewhat debatable whether the Greeks should be pushed further. They have already made a lot of sacrifice and more austerity measures might be counterproductive.

Greece in general is an interesting country - knee deep in debt ever since regaining their independence, and not exactly by their own fault (Greek history is quite complicated in this respect). I can only wonder what the Greeks (a very resourceful nation) could achieve without the iron ball of debt constantly chained to their ankles.

agree it's too soon to judge

The article suggests that British economy will flourish in the coming decade. If they're right, it will definitely reinforce euro-scepticism in many EU countries.

I don't believe Poland will leave until it starts being a net contributor to the EU

What Poland fears the most is isolation. Too many times in our history we had to face mortal danger alone with enemies all around us. That's why so many Poles appreciate the safety and stability that EU brings (and we are finally pals with the Germans - that has to count for something! :)). Even if Poland becomes a net contributor to the EU budget (and one day she will), there's not a snowball's chance in hell we'll want to leave the Union.

Tacitus
26 Dec 2020  #3,222

independence, and not exactly by their own fault

Well, Greece was by all accounts an incredibly backwards country until the Euro crisis in many ways. Bruessels send them advisors who were supposed to help them innovating their bureaucracy and tax system. Those advisors had previously done the same in African countries, and apparantly they encountered the same problems there, but sometimes even worse. Greece for example lacked a central registry in which all landowners are written down. That is something most European countries have had for lile 100 years... . So no, I don't think Greece would have done better outside, at least not longterm. While the crisis was harsh, it also served as a necessary wake-up call. Greece was forced to undergo a modernization process that will benefit the country in the future.

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,223

any price the UK already has and will pay for leaving the EU is not worth it

pure neoliberalism.... all that matters are economic fats and figures

Greece was forced to undergo a modernization process that will benefit the country in the future.

that's what they said in the DDR...

A couple of years ago the IMF forecasted that it would take decades for Greece to recover (and that was before covid destroyed the one part of their economy that actually worked).

Lenka
26 Dec 2020  #3,224

and that was before covid destroyed the one part of their economy that actually worked).

Then maybe they should have thought about it before they couldn't pay their way?

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,225

All of Greek debt amounted to a rounding error in the EU budget the only reason the economy and political system of the country were destroyed was to make sure that Italy didn't get any fancy ideas.....

And now of course Italy can't pay its debts either so all that was for nuthin'

Tacitus
26 Dec 2020  #3,226

all that matters are economic fats and figures

Behind those figures are always human fates.

that's what they said in the DDR

Not sure what you mean by that.

destroyed was to make sure that Italy didn't get any fancy ideas

Of course, we could not offer Greece better terms than we could offer Italy, but it is of course not true that anything was destroyed. The Greek economy was grossly inflated (by roughly 25%) before the crisis, which is often not properly reflected by anti-austerity reports.

GefreiterKania
26 Dec 2020  #3,227

the only reason the economy and political system of the country were destroyed was to make sure that Italy didn't get any fancy ideas

That's basically it. Greeks were supposed to be made an example for others (Italy, Portugal, Spain and any other country that might try to live beyond their means). At some point it stopped being about a realistic reform program and started to be some sort of sadistic punishment.

Modern Greece has been burdened with heavy debt since the very beginning of their existence as an independent country (that's why they got a German king - to make sure that the debts would be repaid). You might think that history should teach them something, but they keep making the same mistakes over and over again. A riddle.

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,228

Not sure what you mean by that.

The privations and restrictions of the present were supposed to be the price paid for a glorious future.... didn't work for the DDR and it won't work for Greece. Which should make them think about what, of value, that they're actually getting from the EU....

Different cultures produce different economies and the EU has never found a way to get around that and the Euro simply insures that it never will - they're are permanent winners (Germany) and permanent losers (Greece). Why should a country stay in a structure that will make sure they stay poor unless they completely reshape their culture and values?

Tacitus
26 Dec 2020  #3,229

didn't work for the DDR

It worked quite decent if one considers that the DDR was significqntly worse than previously estimated. We have nowadays various booming economic centres in the former, particulary in Saxony.

permanent losers

Greece was initially one of the biggest winners of the Euro, and if it had used the cheap credit it received thanks to its' memberdhip wisely, instead for vanity projects like Olympia and for an overblown welfare state, it would still be a winner.

Why should a country stay

Well, maybe you should ask the Greeks who even in 2015 overwhelmingly wantes to keep the Euro. My guess is that it is nice to have a stable currency and that they like some aort of outside control ocer their own politicians who proved to be untrustworthy.

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,230

if one considers that the DDR was significqntly worse than previously estimated

You miss the point, the DDR would never have been able to deliver the promises it was making (just as the EU cannot really deliver better lives for those in the south at present).

Bratwurst Boy
26 Dec 2020  #3,231

A couple of years ago the IMF forecasted that it would take decades for Greece to recover

"Recover" to what? Do you remember what Greece looked like before they gained entry into the Euro-club and hence access to the german gold coffers?

Dusty roads with mules on it, ruled by a "government" of a few rich families like feudal landowners. Those who promised the most ridiculous lies got the most votes from a quite brainless electorate (maybe because all the smarties just left)...their biggest export had been cheap labor across Europe.

What "recovery" exactly did they mean?

(just as the EU cannot really deliver better lives for those in the south at present

So...no salvation from afar? No almighty german fourth Reich opressing and forcing their members??? They will have to do the hard work themselves???

*gasp*

The shock, the horror!

IF the Germans had all the power they are said to have Greece (and the South) would look like East Germany by now...meaning far far better than before! But the EU doesn't work that way, never has! So sorry for all the Germany hater and conspirational theory activists!

mafketis
26 Dec 2020  #3,232

They will have to do the hard work themselves???

IF the Germans had all the power they are said to have Greece (and the South) would look like East Germany by now...

You're making my point - the EU has stifled any country that isn't Germany and/or ready to become a cog in the German economic machine - the German problem - it's too big for the EU and can't help dominating the rest through its economic muscle....

Bratwurst Boy
27 Dec 2020  #3,233

the EU has stifled any country

And "the EU" is an entity from Mars or what?

How many members? All with the same vote as Germany? Making a Maltese as powerful as a German?

THINK!!!

it's too big for the EU and can't help dominating

Imagine what Germany could do without those gazillions spend on the EU members through the countless funds and programs....without having to achieve majorities...without these countless binding treaties....without being forced to be considerate of so many others weaker, smaller countries...

Where do you think would Greece or the "South" be now....

You think Germany is dominating NOW?

mafketis
27 Dec 2020  #3,234

It's what's gonna happen in any scenario... the size and work ethic (and other cultural features) mean that Germany will dominate any European economic arrangement it's in - which will alienate a lot of other countries...

"the EU" is an entity from Mars or what?

The whole purpose of the EU was to try to domesticate Germany and harness it's massive potential for... doing things by integrating its economy with its neighbors (making militarism inherently unattractive). That worked - but now it dominates the other countries economically

It was the full imposition of neoliberalism* (around 2008) that made it a lot less attractive to other countries

*defined (after Mirowski) as the system where government stops prioritizing the needs of citizens and begins to actively prioritize economic interests - because in any real universe prioritizing business/finance in Europe will mean prioritizing Germany which will.... alienate other countries

Bratwurst Boy
27 Dec 2020  #3,235

- which will alienate a lot of other countries...

....whose historical answer had always been to build alliances which would sooner or later go to war against each other....laying Europe to waste again and again over centuries!

The EU wanted, needed to and DID break that cycle...only for that it's worthy to keep!

It was the full imposition of neoliberalism*

I rather see that as the consequence of the won "Cold war"...no economical rival system meant no shackles for the winner anymore. That is running it's course now.

The moment another system is able to successfully not prioritizing business/finance that will change...but frankly I don't see anything on the horizon. Capitalism won thoroughly!

mafketis
27 Dec 2020  #3,236

he EU wanted, needed to and DID break that cycle..

It did, which is a major accomplishment.... but no system does (or can) last forever and the old strategy isn't working so much anymore.

The Euro has turned into a massive own goal for countries that aren't Germany... it can't work for the south except to keep them mired in intergenerational debt (not a politically stable prospect).

GefreiterKania
27 Dec 2020  #3,237

which will alienate a lot of other countries

Well, it might alienate some countries, but it might also make other countries (the smart ones!) try to emulate Germany in some aspects. Why be constantly envious and resentful when you can observe and emulate their strengths (like work ethic, technical culture etc.) and observe and avoid their mistakes (like importing millions of muslims and abandoning their own religious tradition)? He, he :)

Greece was punished cruelly, that's true, but maybe (just maybe) now is the time to finally stop making the same old mistakes over and over again.

Bratwurst Boy
27 Dec 2020  #3,238

The Euro has turned into a massive own goal for countries that aren't Germany

Blame the French, it was the Euro or no Re-unification....and some lessons must be learned it seems, by the South AND the North...you can't buy everything with money if the underlying structures to function successfully just aren't there.

mafketis
27 Dec 2020  #3,239

now is the time to finally stop making the same old mistakes over and over again.

And make new ones, instead! (the current state of affairs)....

GefreiterKania
27 Dec 2020  #3,240

And make new ones, instead!

Possibly.

The alternative, however, is to keep doing the same things and expect different results.


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