Coronavirus in Poland

@Atch
First, you've got some explaining to do.... how have you never mentioned the magnificent ramblings of Farmer Michael before?

youtube.com/watch?v=d0ByxyIAWrQ

He's a singin' man!

youtube.com/watch?v=i55h7I6GciY

Ringing her will only remind her she used to be loved... decades ago.

Second, the case you mentioned seems like a green swan... and it's not clear what message people are supposed to take away from her case beyond never leaving home again.....

Third, this video needs to be more widely seen:

youtube.com/watch?v=dUOFeVIrOPg

two takeaways (that I've been thinking about for a time, neither of which is very cheery....).

biological (genetic) differences in population have a lot to do with differing death rates in different places

there's a very susceptible portion of the population (of differing sizes in different places) and no matter what governments or individuals do the virus isn't going away until it burns through it....

Except it looks like a natural immunity is not an option since antibodies disappear after some time.

Which really sucks because as it turns out I have antibodies in my blood. I suspect that I got in at the end of february when I had what I assumed was a horrible cough. So far it looks like I was lucky but who knows.

The number one after effect so far has been extreme 'tiredness'.

Numbers..

Fatalities (daily total) 5, age range 57-90, average age 80

Hospitalizations (running total) up 24 to 1625

Ventilators in use up 1 to 69

Cured (daily total) just 103 (weekend?) about 230 less than new cases

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were 20 times more cured cases than fatalities

There must be some lucky people...take care!

I was sick for about 4-5 days with mild fever and headache. Not very pleasant, but not worse than a previous flu. I guess, I got lucky too.

I cant say I know anyone that has the virus now. Its totally political in the USA, nothing more.

Which test did you have done?


150,000 deaths is nothing more than political?

Numbers..

Fatalities (daily total) 6, age range 38-85, average age 69

Hospitalizations (running total) up 30 to 1655

Ventilators in use down 8 to 61

Cured (daily total) just 187 (weekend?) over 300 less than new cases

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were 31 times more cured cases than fatalities..

First numbers about longterm complications after a survived infection....

...A study published last month points to associated brain complications, including strokes, that require being admitted to hospital. Of the 125 patients in the study, 77 had a stroke.

Infections have long been known as a risk factor for strokes, but there is some evidence to suggest that if a patient has a stroke while suffering from Covid-19, they are more likely to suffer a worse type of stroke with multiple large artery blockages in the brain, more severe disability and a higher chance of dying of the stroke,....

theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/28/clapped-out-of-icu-dead-days-later-secondary-impact-of-covid-19-stroke-clots-coronavirus

No link because it's behind a pay wall, but the New York Times is reporting that antibodies disappearing doesn't necessarily matter (and two widely used tests for corona measure the wrong antibodies).

Apparently virtually everyone who gets it develops T cell responses (important for immunity and they last for years)....


so if you have a stroke when you have coronavirus you might have another stroke?

In other news... the unfortunate man in the article had an Indian name, which reminds me that in the UK those of south Asian origin were disproportionately represented in healthcare worker fatalities... but there hasn't been that much news from the sub-continent itself... is it third world disorganization? corona cant get a toehold among the other endemic diseases?

Though a bit of searching shows that it's growing faster in India than anywhere else....

One of the founding myths of the modern world is that different populations do not differ genetically in any important way... is that going to be another casualty of corona or is the belief too strong?

The New York Times is reporting that Russia has developed a vaccine which will be available within two weeks.

....I will let others go first, that's for sure!

To many unknowns....


...you might have a worse stroke. But what's actually meant ist that totally healthy people suffer now strokes, and bad strokes at that!

The bad news for Rich In his shed in Central Asia is that Vlad wants to test it out on some prison battalions first

The good news is that anybody who volunteers for the trial gets 3 extra sticks of firewood

Is probably much nicer that the dump you live in. haha

PS: More numbers....

Now a study by Uniklinik Frankfurt has found that about 78% of infected people suffer heart damages, which stay even when cured...(the patients had an average age of 49 years)

bild.de/ratgeber/2020/ratgeber/corona-studie-aus-frankfurt-bei-78-prozent-der-genesenen-bleiben-herzschaeden-72117198.bild.html

The study in English:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

Numbers...

Fatalities (daily total) 12, age range 33-90, average age 68

Hospitalizations (running total) up 32 to 1687

Ventilators in use up 5 to 66

Cured (daily total) just 147, which is 375 less than new cases found

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were just 12 times more cured cases than fatalities.

What's worrying me is that Poles appear to have forgotten about social distancing already. There's quite a few news reports over the weekend showing people crowding in places like the seaside, on popular mountains (10,000 in one day on Śnieżka!) and in places close to cities, as well as people disregarding all common sense at weddings and so on.

From my perspective, avoiding large gatherings of people indoors seems like a no brainer, as well as avoiding large queues.

We went away at the weekend, and in Kielce we didn't se much social distancing.

They forgot about it weeks ago Delph. Hence the following:

• 
  The virus is still as active as ever.
  

Ups and downs can I only see on this chart. The number has never crossed the 600 novel cases daily line (yet).

And the hospitalization rate has not increased significantly (yet) I was expecting to go over 1700 or maybe 1800 a week or so ago and it hasn't yet.

The more you test the more cases you find (esp asymptomatic) the more 'ogniska' you find (which has driven a lot of testing lately) the more asymptomatic cases or cases with mild symptoms you find....

That said, I'm puzzling about the decline in cured cases over the last few days (after about a month of strong numbers). My guess is that it's catching up to the lower hospitalization rate.


What's up with Ireland? The last I checked the R0 had picked up again and was higher than that of Poland (for july 20)

....they are not cured at all!

"Instead of decreasing the epidemic curve, we've got a sort of plateau," Maria Ganczak, a specialist in epidemiology at the University of Zielona Góra, in western Poland, told the Financial Times." That was back in early June and it hasn't changed since.


It went up to about 1.28 but it's gone down again, around1.0 I believe. Apparently when you have a low R0 number and then a spike in cases, with a cluster or a couple of clusters for example, the R number rises rather abruptly but it doesn't necessarily mean that the general rate of infection has increased dramatically. The head of the modelling team in Ireland explains it thus:


thejournal.ie/ireland-reproduction-number-5146622-Jul2020/

As for Poland, do we know how they arrive at their R number, as in which mathematical model they use? Because it doesn't make sense that Poland, where restrictions are largely lifted and people are no longer observing most precautions, can have a lower transmission rate than Ireland.

'Lateral (sideways) trend' it is called on a stock exchange. And such a trend is enjoyed on most of the stock exchanges in the world for most of the time.

Hospitalization rates at the beginning of June were over 2000.... since July 7 it hasn't cracked 1700... It's decreasing just very very slowly....

I was actually thinking of plateaus earlier today, there's a long plateau and then a small drop and then a new plateau....

Ah for God's sake............

• 
  ACTIVEJULY.JPG
  

I meant hospitalizations ( which I'm interested in) not in 'active cases' when most of them aren't very sick....

I see your point, but as long as the virus is being transmitted so actively within the community, you will continue to see a minority of people becoming very ill and many unnecessary deaths.

It seems that the Polish government has decided that it will just ignore the virus until a vaccine is found. They're no longer bothering to put the message out that we need to avoid large gatherings, keep our physical distance (public transport in Warsaw is a joke at present, people crammed in like sardines) and they're not doing anything to ensure that people comply with the few remaining restrictions. The Polish public have consequently become complacent and think that because we don't see dead bodies piled up in the street, it doesn't really matter and that there's no threat. But the more people crowd together, the stronger the hold the virus has and the harder it will be to eliminate it even when there is a vaccine. Proper public health policy is to continue to work to keep the transmission rate as low as possible.

I dunno... most of the picture I've been forming (from looking at raw numbers and listening to experts and mostly ignoring mass media stuff) is that it's going to run its course and not much that governments do will really change that... (and the primary factor in fatalities are genetic ones that haven't been nailed down yet).

If, as some suspect, it's engineered then normal suppression methods won't work - and we can't shut down the economy indefinitely without killing more people than the virus would....

If month long lock downs didn't stop it (and they didn't they just.... delayed things) then social distancing and masks won't...

That's public health policy - but there are other kinds of policy and most people will not accept another lockdown. So what is the sense of stressing about this low number of cases