So what in your view will actually happen if indeed 3 mln refugees/mirgants (I doubt if the two goroups will ever get surgically separated!) end up in Europe by 2017, most of them in Germany?
If Germany really does end up taking an astronomical amount of people that refuse to return, then the only logical consequence is the rise of a party like the AfD, running on a platform to deport the vast majority of them. I can absolutely see a situation emerging where the EU agrees to limit welfare benefits to citizens of a country, riots occuring and Germany being in a no-win situation.
I don't see a good exit strategy for Germany here. Poland can take even 25,000 and still be able to return most of them easily, but removing a projected number of up to 1.5 million is going to be...impossible. The surreal thing is that Merkel is sticking to the line that "Germany can cope", even when it's obvious that it can't.
There are a lot of possibilities but all the good endings are very improbable.
I'm struggling to see how Germany can cope with this in the long run.
But maybe there's another scenario we haven't considered. Germany could well reform her welfare system to force them into work (or be deported), meaning that Germany could end up getting their hands on a lot of very cheap workers that have no choice but to work. But it seems a dangerous, dangerous gamble. I'm also not convinced it could work.
I don't think I've met a single person that genuinely can explain Merkel's actions - even the Germans I know are absolutely bewildered as to why she's opened the door to everyone, even the left wing ones. I know one rather radical left winger there, and she also admitted that it seems like Germany has no plan whatsoever.