Poland`s aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 6

It's very bad taste to count other people's money. Have your parents not taught you this?

Dude, that's the moment you shut up and pretend you were never there.
Yeeeeeaaaaah,economies based on resource exports are known to be self-sufficient, especially when they lose their major buyers and have no alternative infrastructure :-D
Problems of Russian economy are merely starting.

@Korvinus

Excuse me?

Also, "useless rupees" made me laugh. What does that make the Zloty?

The rupee, unlike the Zloty, did not collapse during the pandemic. So it is less volatile. Then, a lot more people need rupees, since there's actually things to buy from India, and there are 1.5 billion Indians who need to pay taxes in rupees and pay for their daily needs. Who needs Zlotys? What can you buy for Zlotys - apples?

Even if I get paid $10B dollars in a single transaction, I know I can go and change them into dollars tomorrow - without anyone experiencing an iota of volatility. If I go and sell $10B of Zlotys tomorrow for euros or dollars, I will collapse the Polish currency and end up in a direct confrontation with the Polish national bank.

Think before you write.

Trading oil for dollars gives you a currency you can use to buy anything anywhere.
Trading oil for rupees gives you a currency you can use in some places to buy some things.
This is objectively a downgrade, and not something Russia does for its own benefit, or of its own free will.

news.yahoo.com/russia-doesnt-know-1-billion-093843255.html

Russia doesn't know what to do with the $1 billion in rupees it is amassing in India each month​
Russia's now having issues with trading in the rupee because there's more Indian demand for Russian goods than the other way around - meaning Russia has been saddled up to $1 billion worth of rupees each month that's stuck in Indian banks, according to Bloomberg calculations on Thursday.

Not the worst "problem" to have.


We do have a bit of mismatch. America, for example, buys a lot from India. Primarily software and people. Russia does the same thing as India, where we sell software to others, and our labor is similarly used as outsource labor for a lot of software-related businesses. So Russia doesn't really need to buy anything from a hypothetical Infosys, because we don't have the Googles and Facebooks that require it, and instead we are sort of competing with the Indians.

There are further mismatches beyond our similar "cheap coders" issue. Many of the things we could buy from India, are cheaper and easier to deliver from China with which we share a border.

However, if things really came to a head, I'm sure we could cash those $1B a month in excess accumulations very quickly. We could buy Indian cut gems, for example, of which they are the largest world exporter. Yes, Russia is itself a number 1 diamond producer, but those gems could be resold for something other than rupees. Right now, Russia has difficulties importing Western cars. So instead we are buying a lot Chinese cars. India happens to have a relatively dynamic automobile industry - so then we could buy a ton of Indian cars and sell it to our own people. India has a huge pharmaceutical industry, so then we could purchase their generic medications in volume.

A lot one can do with a $1B of rupees per month.

Be materialistic in your reading of the data, don't fall for ideological dogma.
It's the Russian governent that desperately does not want to receive rupees for oil and gas. Obviously Kremlin fears that India produces nothing of value that could be purchased with this cureency :)

So moral of the story, stick with the $ because then Russia wouldnt be complaining about " But for this, Rupees must be converted to another currency, and this is now being discussed "

...and what's the problem with that? If you feel the rupee is so useless, is it a problem to exchange them to the Yuan, Dinars, Reals, or Pesos? I know of no problems in executing such an operation.


Nobody, ever, has tried to accuse me of being insufficiently materialistic. I'm pretty impervious to dogma. Where there is a problem, I look for solutions - not rage at the Gods.

moral of the story is that russia was in as good an economic situation as it was ever going to have selling energy to Europe and they threw it away because the russian government doesn't care about the well-being of the citizenry as long as they can tell themselves they're a 'great power' and an empire....

russian 'citizens' (technically 'subjects') simply accept poverty and hardship and victimization (indeed they think of it as a good thing) as the price for the government to be a 'great power' and and 'empire'....

russia wants to be a leading country in the world (or 'the' leading country) but doesn't have the cultural capital to be anything but Nigeria with snow or Brazil with trains....

until russans accept their limitations the world won't have peace... they went out of their way to drown the 20th century in blood and are still on the same futile path....

because India has restrictions over capital flows by foreign investors
Rupee is state regulated, and pajeets regulate exchange as well. You literally can't convert any major sums of rupees without their consent.

I have already posted this link:
news.yahoo.com/russia-doesnt-know-1-billion-093843255.html

"For this, rupees should be converted into other currencies. This is being discussed," Lavrov said, per Bloomberg.

India and Russia are now trying to work out how Russia can use its mounting rupee stash. Options include getting Russian entities to invest in India's capital markets, Bloomberg reported, citing officials in India familiar with details.

Another option under discussion is having Russia channel the rupees into Indian infrastructure projects in exchange for equity stakes, per the media outlet.

But in these talks, Moscow doesn't really have much bargaining power.

Very wise too.

Especially on alternative markets, rapacious speculation like that can affect a perfectly viable mid-sized company's ability to raise credit, develop, and most importantly, pay their wages bill.

This is the hazard, clearly. However, for every bear there is a bull. If a shortseller's attack is truly malicious, there is nothing to prevent a white knight from stepping in and taking the other side of the bet. Many, if not most, shorts end up disastrously.

The value/virtue of allowing shorts is it prunes your stock market of sick companies that otherwise could have persisted for much longer in a "zombie" state. It's Darwinian and brutal, but in the end results in a overall healthier organism.

When it comes to these kind of debates of "protecting companies" vs "wild west" - I'm always in favor of "Wild West". Companies are not people.

Noticeable that you used the word 'attack'.


There shouldn't need to be a 'white knight'.

And people¡s wages and livelihoods are not a 'bet'. India has the right idea here.

Anyway, back to the topic.

Ukraine are making some pretty strong advances. The orcs seem to be using their orcs as a human shield to be blasted to bits by artillery.

That has been "Russian military tactics" for decades......they are too stupid to see beyond their "Numbers".....but when Russian people start to grasp the reality of the situation there will be a backlash.

Russians may be slow but they can understand when something is wrong.

Russia is going to end up building India's railways for them ? LOL

You could get some of those Wagnerites there - stripped to the waist in the sun, building a bridge !

These ideas about Yuan and Rupees etc are just fanciful comintern nonsense - will just leave this dictatorships peoples even further adrift of the civilized world.

India are welcome to embrace the Orcs but they are heading in a bad direction

And become the latest in a long line of countries that regrets ever hearing the word 'russia'..... no stopping them but also no sympathy once they're burned.....

An outrage! A Ukrainian peace activist was arrested for handing out anti-war flyers saying "I want to live" and then he was tortured to death in police custody....... oh wait, it wasn't Ukraine after all, it was in russia....

russians gonna russian....

meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/15/russian-peace-activist-reported-dead-in-jail-following-allegations-that-officials-were-torturing-him

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1669306122522468352

The European Parliament has voted in favor of a resolution calling EU membership negotiations with Ukraine to start this year and for NATO to present a path for Ukraine to NATO membership at the Vilnius summit together with security guarantees until membership.

That wasn't Putin's plan.....right?

Will we get a new line of demarcation in Europe? Including the never ending refugees from East to West? Will the East try to stop the fleeing masses with armed border guards with firing order and with a new Mauer???

I really hoped we had all that left behind us 1989!

Mmm, but it said 'after the war is over', so I think it's a long way off. I'd be more worried about the 'comprehensive recovery package' for Ukraine. Rebuilding a country the size of Ukraine after a war is no small committment.

Bakhmut under siege again and hungover Udmurtians trying to hang on with their 19th century Mausers - should be done by the end of June.

Yesterday some sloshed Udmurtian general called an all hands meeting of his battalion and then kept them waiting 2 hours while he had another couple of glasses of spirytus. The bored "soldiers" all turned their phones on and you can guess the rest.

Rare piece of sh!t that guy is.

More of the same please!

Apparently Ukraine are making strong advances and the orcs are retreating in some places. Soon their occupying army will be cut in two with no land access to Crimea. Very heavy orc losses apparently.

Where you getting this from? The multiple reports I've read say the Uke advance has been slow and underwhelming; which makes sense, since this is the initial push. It's kind of like two boxers-feeling each other out right now-trying to figure out where weaknesses lie.

As far as I know, Ukraine has issued very little information and there are few reporters there. Be wary of news that may be sympathetic to ruzzia.


Slow, of course, 'underwhelming' very much not. A few hundred metres a day is impressive, especially as there was one dead orc per 48cm at Bakhmut. And of course the official estimate now is that there are 8 dead orcs to every fallen Ukrainian soldier.

Very few Ukrainian equipment losses too, despite ruzzia showing photos of the same 4 or 5 Leopards taken from different angles.

the counter-offensive is far from being in full swing... it began weeks ago with 'shaping' actions (attacks on russian ammo/fuel/logistics hubs) and now they're just doing poking here and there scoping out the field...

As I keep saying it's a process not an event.....

Which is obvious. The media in the U.K. (the reputable media, anyway) are however reporting, as I said, strong progress.

A couple of things from the news over the last couple of days. One is that Ukraine has committed very little of it's available hardware and manpower so far (which makes their progress all the more commendable) and the other is that the ruzzians are so stretched for resources that they're sending local civil defence guards from Crimea and policemen from Donetsk to the front, as well as using what appear to be very old brass artillery shells.

Exactly.

I wouldn't be getting giddy about anything right now. Regardless of what one hopes or thinks, Russia has the greater advantage as it is in a dug-in defensive posture now, unlike its previous offensive posture where it failed to reach its initial goal. Plus, Ukraine's offensive lacks air support.

Who's giddy? Maybe ruzzian propagandists, however they are giddy for the wrong reasons.

So far, Ukraine have been doing very well and ruzzia's unsustainable losses are slowly proving to be their downfall.

To quote a great leader. The situation now is probably mid way between the end of the beginning and the beginning of the end, perhaps closer to the latter. The most important thing is to ensure that Ukraine have the tools and the support to finish the job.

Figure of speech.

Here's another one aimed at you: don't start counting your chickens until the eggs are hatched.

This counter-offensive is a different animal. You seem to presuppose Russian defeat. They may have performed poorer than expected since the outset of this sh!t war, but they have not been defeated yet and there are no guarantees they will be defeated in the future.

Russia still has plenty of artillery-artillery that can reach those new Leopards and Bradleys. Leopards and Bradleys that are without strong air support.

Ukraine victory is not a foregone conclusion , merely a hoped for desire, as of now.

Better to aim it at Putin.


The idea of Ukraine, supported by the west, of winning this war is such a significant danger that ruzzia cannot be allowed to prevail. And yes, Ukraine will win, so,e thing you presumably strongly support.


Actually they don't. As mentioned earlier, they are resorting to very old brass shells, as well as trying to source materiel from North Korea. As for Leopard and Bradley's, fewer than 10 Leopards have been damaged. All Challenger IIs are unharmed.


Be positive.

Their 3-day special operation hasn't give as they would have wished, and the news from the front is encouraging.

Please cut down on your quotes.

No one wants to talk about the South African plan stranded in Warsaw?

gov.pl/web/diplomacy/mfa-statement-on-the-detention-of-aircraft-with-members-of-the-security-of-south-african-president-cyril-ramaphosa-at-warsaw-okecie-airport

mg.co.za/politics/2023-06-16-poland-gives-the-middle-finger-to-south-african-security-personnel/

Why was a South African delegation going to Ukraine anyway? Backwards African countries are totally on the russian colonialist side....

And in Ukraine a South African figure denied there had been a russian attack on Kyiv while they were there....

Unconfirmed reports indicate a large amount of weapons and persons whose entry had not been foreseen......

Maybe the plan was to assassinate Zelenskyy and/or take Ukr government figures hostage to force a 'peace'???

Very curious....

Africa is still soooooooo far behind.