For a more detailed analysis.
THE TRIUMPH OF HEROSTRATUS: HOW RUSSIA LOST THE ENERGY WAR AND PERMANENTLY FORFEITED ITS LEADING POSITION IN THE GLOBAL GAS MARKET
re-russia.net/en/analytics/0119/
Numbers are really not looking good. Some examples:
Russian gas is no longer needed by Europe. European consumers paid a heavy price in 2022 and early 2023, but now it is the turn of the Russian state and Russian citizens to pay, deprived of export revenues that sometimes reached $20-30 billion a year. The Russian gas industry is facing an 'existential threat,' according to Skoltech's report 'The Transformation of Russia's Gas Export Strategy'. In 2022, the country's gas production fell 11.7% to 673.8 billion cubic metres, while Gazprom's production fell 20% to 412.6 billion cubic metres. In the first half of 2023, the company further reduced production by almost 25%.
In 2006, Gazprom was the third largest company in the world in terms of capitalisation, at about $250 billion. Its management declared its intention to lead the company to the top position and eventually reach a capitalisation value of $1 trillion. By the end of the second year of the war in Ukraine, Gazprom's value on the Moscow Exchange had fallen to 3.85 trillion rubles, or $42 billion. Putin and Miller have managed to almost completely destroy the most profitable part of the Soviet and Yeltsin-era gas legacy.
China won't be Gazprom's saviour either
Forecasts for China's energy development suggest that demand will continue to grow until 2040, and then, after a period of stability, it will begin to decline, with gas trade between Russia and China ceasing by 2060. But, if Beijing accelerates its transition to renewables, which is highly likely given the development of new technologies, this trajectory may be even shorter. Vakulenko notes that this is a fundamental difference from the situation in the 1960s and 1980s, when the prospects for gas demand growth looked limitless. It is for this reason that China is demonstrating a lack of interest in financing the construction of the gas pipeline.
Russia is really fu*ed. Without the war there might still be alternatives, but the costs of the leave it little room. Maybe Putin will be fortunate enough to live long enough to have some limited success in Ukraine and die early enough to leave the horrific consequences of his reign to his successor. That is all he can hope for at this point.