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Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 13



PolAmKrakow
13 Aug 2024  #601

@Bobko
You make a good point. But its taken 2.5 years for Russia to gain that ground, and it took Ukraine two days. You cant minimize the accomplishment. It was a surprise and a good one that worked. Does it make a difference? Only time will tell.

Bobko
13 Aug 2024  #602

But its taken 2.5 years for Russia to gain that ground

Well, strictly speaking, most of that ground was taken in approximately a week.

After the first week or so, Russia controlled a bit less than a third of Ukraine. Following Ukraine's counteroffensives in Kiev, Kherson, and Kharkov the percentage dropped to the current 18% (roughly).

All the changes to the frontline since then have been calculated in dozens and hundreds of sq km only.

Once the front lines were settled, and there became two walls of men facing off against each other - movement largely stopped. This is what's happening in Kursk now... a front line is slowly shaping up. Ukraine took as much as it could in the initial days of confusion, but everything further will have to come at a much higher cost.

This doesn't really put Russia's efforts into any kind of better light - I'm simply nitpicking a little here.

It hurts my brain to remember how fast the gains were in the first week. For a moment, I was sure Nikolayev and then Odessa would fall. There were Russian tanks standing at cross streets in downtown Kharkov. All of Kiev's suburbs were battlegrounds.

I barely slept during that first week.

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #603

I wonder if Ukraine took the territory to have something to barter with....maybe truce-talks are coming?

PolAmKrakow
14 Aug 2024  #604

@Bobko
Again, good points. But Russia had more than 150K men lined up to make the invasion. Ukraine did this completely in secret, and Russia was caught off guard. Can they hold on to the gains? Thats yet to be seen. But this is a blow for Vlad publicly. At some point he has to regret doing this IMO.

@Bratwurst Boy
I think this is the sole purpose for making the move. Had it been unsuccessful, it could have been the last gasp for Ukraine. But they do have something now, and while not as large as the land Russia controls, its a bargaining chip.

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #605

...meaning, that move is not so senseless at it seemed at the beginning...not at all!

mafketis
14 Aug 2024  #606

The Ukrainian Kursk initiative is now de-militarizing temporarily occupied Königsberg....

x.com/nexta_tv/status/1823623847540654182

Will Germany/NATO take this opportunity to gather in the historically German city? Or is the whole "NATO caused it" idea the domain of slobbering idiots who haven't had a new thought in decades?

amiga500
14 Aug 2024  #607

The Ukrainian Kursk initiative is now de-militarizing temporarily occupied Königsberg....

Królewiec you Polonophic kraut arse licking loser! Królewiec! ;) It was polish lands before it became east prussia.

mafketis
14 Aug 2024  #608

was polish lands before it became east prussia

Given the fraught nature of competing claims, I support turning it into Královec and giving it to the Czech Republic.
was polish lands before it became east prussia


Korvinus
14 Aug 2024  #609

For a moment, I was sure Nikolayev and then Odessa would fall.

What do you think, if Putin could load a save game from before February 2022, would he do it?
I'd say it definitely wasn't the plan to fight a real war, only to get a quick grab while Europe and USA are dealing with inflation, refugees, COVID-19, political shuffling and internet info stuff. Unfortunately for him, that last card collapsed the tower.

mafketis
14 Aug 2024  #610

quick grab while Europe and USA are dealing with

Supposedly he was also inspired by the US disaster in fleeing Afghanistan... for sure he anticipated a quick triumphant blitzkrieg (since all his advisers told him Ukrainians wanted to be ruled by him).....

On the other hand, he personally, has not suffered any consequences.... so he probably would do it again.

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #611

What do you think, if Putin

Hey, Russia-hating morons, this war comes down to one simple yes-no question even Russia-hating morons like you should be able to answer:

Would the US tolerate Mexico joining a hostile military pact?

It's a yes or no question so take your hostility toward Russia and shove it up your ass.

Bobko
14 Aug 2024  #612

de-militarizing temporarily occupied Königsberg....

I wasn't very surprised, when I saw Western commentators cheering for offshoots of Al-Qaeda several weeks ago - when Wagner forces were ambushed in Mali.

If something is bad for Russia, then it must be good for the West. No need to use your brain!

However, talking about "temporarily occupied Königsberg" is a new low. You are a Nazi apologist too now?

Poor, poor Nazi Germany - so misunderstood and so mistreated by the Soviet bully!

How do you think your parents' generation would feel about their descendants casually talking about "temporarily occupied Königsberg"?

If tomorrow, the Islamic State, starts an insurgency in the Russian North Caucasus, will you start telling us about the pressing need to restore the Caliphate?

Korvinus
14 Aug 2024  #613

Would the US tolerate Mexico joining a hostile military pact?

Russia against NATO: all bark no bite.

20 years passed since the Baltic States joined NATO. By Novichok's logic, nuclear warheads could have already been placed directly near Petersburg and several hundred kms from Moscow.

And yet Russia does nothing except for ritual sabre-rattling. No serious amassing troops, no ultimatum, no invasion. Why oh why, that is the question...

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #614

Russia against NATO: all bark no bite.

Cut the crap.

Would the US tolerate Mexico joining a hostile military pact?

Korvinus
14 Aug 2024  #615

How the hell should I know? I am a Pole and don't give a FF about Mexico.

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #616

No, you are just an evasive Russia hater.

Would the US tolerate Mexico joining a hostile military pact?

Yes or no?

Use "more likely than not" approach.

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #617

Yes or no?

I think yes....because they have to! They would have to accept a split continent as Europe had to during the Cold War....

I guess it wouldn't be only Mexico, but several other middle- and south american countries chosing sides....and there are limits to what the US/Canada would and could do!

Bobko
14 Aug 2024  #618

@Bratwurst Boy

For what's it worth Mexico hates America. A little bit more than Ukraine hates Russia.

I travelled all across Mexico this May. Wonderful people - proud, hard working, and very family oriented.

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #619

think yes....because they have to!

With a Russian or Chinese base in Tihuana? Really?

If that's the case, why am I paying fed taxes?

I have full faith in the US CIA and our ability to kill with drones any Mexican azhole who would even think about it. See Osama and other creeps like him.

We don't even like China taking Taiwan - only one million miles away...

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #620

Really?

What can the US do? As long as Mexico is a recognized independent country they can more or less do what they want! What is the alternative for the US? (besides shunning and frowning and sanctioning...all that usual stuff...)

Edit: Okay....taking out the brains behind Mexico going the wrong way is a possibility! Definitely more doable than a full blown invasion/occupation!

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #621

What can the US do?

The same we did in Iraq. Iraq was recognized as an independent country but the US still kicked their asses only because the US suspected that Iraq had WMD.

As with cancer, prevention and early detection are 90% of the job.

Bobko
14 Aug 2024  #622

What can the US do?

Were you born yesterday?

Look at history.

They tried to blow Fidel up with exploding cigars umpteen times.

They installed their own "sons of *******" all across the continent, as long as they kept the communists out. They make no scruples about it - they simply go in and install who they need. Look at Granada, Panama, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina, etc.

There's such a thing as the Monroe Doctrine:

"The Monroe Doctrine is a United States foreign policy position that opposes European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere. It holds that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers is a potentially hostile act against the United States."

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #623

The same we did in Iraq.

.....and it did end more or less with pulling Saddam out of a sewer...

They tried to blow Fidel up with exploding cigars umpteen times.

Frankly I'm a big fan of taking out the persons responsible compared to burning a whole country and mass killing your own young men and other peoples civilians....

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #624

Bobko, you made me so proud of the US and its core motto: Wherever you are, don't fvck with us.

See Iraq and Osama. Poor SOB thought he was safe in Pakistan...hahahahahahaha...

I love America.

Korvinus
14 Aug 2024  #625

Use "more likely than not" approach.

You are comparing apples to oranges. Russia's GDP is akin to Mexico. Russia is not a superpower. And only become a superpower after WW2 because FDR allowed them to occupy half of Europe.

While the US is the hegemonial power, having over 26% of the world economy in his hands, and the US and its allies are over half of the world economy. And people ruled by the US don't hate the US as much as people ruled by RU. Hence they would fight much less to be free from US influence than a country like Ukraine would fight to be free from RU influence.

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #626

There's such a thing as the Monroe Doctrine:

Does anybody here see the US invading Mexico as Putin did with Ukraine? Seriously???

To do what? To "liberate" the Mexicans??? President Harris maybe??? ;)

Bobko
14 Aug 2024  #627

Bobko, you made me so proud of the US

It doesn't play nice when you're trying to stir up trouble in its backyard.

Does anybody here see the US invading Mexico

The only reason it might not do it, is because relatively recently America invaded Mexico and annexed half of it. The modern states of California, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, and parts of others are former Mexican territories.

Political opponents of President Polk called it a "naked land grab" and a "perpetual stain on America's conscience". Others said it was only done to add more slave states to the Union.

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #628

taking out the persons responsible

Are we talking about police or army? In wars, everything is a target. See Hiroshima and Dresden That's how you win wars.

Police investigations and arrests don't accomplish anything. Murders are illegal in the US. Some murderers are arrested and sent to prisons. Many for life.

So what...

and a "perpetual stain on America's conscience".

I like that stain.

Bratwurst Boy
14 Aug 2024  #629

That's how you win wars.

I dunno....if someone would had took out Hitler and Co in time....so much could have been avoided.....maybe even the war!

The only reason it might not do it,

The times have changed, haven't they....such land grabs would be hard to sell in our times! All the Latinos living and working in the US, would they stay all quiet?

Novichok
14 Aug 2024  #630

They tried 42 times. Then came Stalingrad...


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